Colts at Texans odds, picks and predictions

Jan. 3, 2026, 8:47 p.m. ET

The Indianapolis Colts (8-8) visit the Houston Texans (11-5) Sunday in Week 18. Kickoff from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, is at 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Colts vs. Texans odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.

The Colts turn to rookie QB Riley Leonard after going 0-3 with Philip Rivers starting after coming out of retirement and getting eliminated from postseason contention. They have lost 6 games in a row. Last week, with Rivers starting, they lost 23-17 to the Jacksonville Jaguars as 4-point home underdogs with the Under (48) cashing.

The Texans have the AFC South title in play. They win the division if they beat the Colts and Jacksonville loses to the Tennessee Titans. They are riding an 8-game winning streak. They went on the road last week and beat the LA Chargers 20-16 as 1-point underdogs with the Under (41) cashing.

The Texans beat the Colts 20-16 on Nov. 30 in Indianapolis as 3-point underdogs as the Under (44.5) cashed.

Watch the NFL on Fubo!Colts at Texans odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 8:36 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Colts +475 (bet $100 to win $475) | Texans -650 (bet $650 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Colts +10.5 (-110) | Texans -10.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 38.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)Colts at Texans key injuries

Colts

CB Sauce Gardner (calf) outTE Will Mallory (lung) outQB Anthony Richardson (eye) outS Daniel Scott (knee) out

Texans

OT Trent Brown (ankle, knee) questionableCB Ajani Carter (hamstring) questionableLB Jamal Hill (calf) outCB Kamari Lassitter (ankle, knee) outDE Darrell Taylor (ankle) questionableColts at Texans picks and predictionsPrediction

Texans 23, Colts 10

The Colts are giving Leonard his first NFL start against the league’s No. 1 defense in a game that matters for the Texans. They have lost 6 straight games, while the Texans have been rolling with 8 straight wins.

The Colts are 2-5 on the road this season and have lost 4 straight meetings with the Texans.

But betting the Texans at -650 odds won’t get you much value. Betting the spread for either team gets you better value.

PASS.

The Texans have won by more than 10 points only once in their winning streak, a 40-20 beatdown of the Arizona Cardinals. That is the only game in their last 6 in which they scored more than 23 points.

But can the Colts even score 2 TDs against the Texans on the road against the top defense in both yards and points with a Day 3 rookie quarterback making his first NFL start?

BET TEXANS -10.5 (-110).

Their first meeting this season had a total of 36. The Under has hit in 5 of the Texans’ last 7 games.

The Colts have allowed 25 or fewer points in 5 of their last 7 games, but they will struggle to score themselves.

BET UNDER 38.5 (-105).

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Colts at Texans odds, picks and predictions

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