Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for Sunday’s game between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans in NFL Week 18.

The final Sunday of the 2025-26 NFL regular season rolls around in Week 18. Yes, you heard that right… the playoffs lie just around the corner. In the meantime, though, we have plenty of games throughout the day on Sunday to wrap up the final slate of games. In the early window, the Houston Texans welcome the Indianapolis Colts to NRG Stadium with an outside chance at winning their third straight AFC South title.

Get ready with a Colts vs. Texans prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Week 18 contest.

Colts vs. Texans prediction, preview

Indianapolis Colts

The first half of the season appeared incredible for the Colts as the franchise careened towards the playoffs with an 8-2 start heading into the bye. The second half didn’t play out in similar fashion as they dropped six straight contests since, including all three since losing Daniel Jones for the season. At 8-8, hopes of the postseason were previously lost and Riley Leonard now takes over under center for America’s favorite grandpa, Philip Rivers. The Colts will surely continue to lean on the run behind Jonathan Taylor, but a once-great offense has managed just 16, 27, and 17 points over its last three games since the quarterback change. Leonard probably won’t fix that, though he did complete 62.1% of his passes for 145 yards (and a pick) in his only extended action on December 7. Thankfully his weapons are healthy, but it’s a brutal matchup in Houston this week for the rookie. Defensively, Indianapolis’ roster looks banged up with star cornerback Sauce Gardner (calf) ruled out along with defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (neck), who underwent season-ending surgery. The unit gives up 23.4 points per game (19th) and 350.5 yards of offense (24th), so that side of the ball struggles as well. It’s particularly ugly against the pass with 250.6 yards allowed via the air per contest, second-most in the league. The Colts also rank 21st in sack percentage but eighth in takeaways with 1.3 per outing.

Houston Texans

Meanwhile, the Texans are the anti-Colts in a sense. An 0-3 start had fans hitting the panic button early but the team woke up soon thereafter and now rides an NFL-best eight-game winning streak into this matchup. The offense is merely average at best, scoring 22.9 points per game (16th) while tallying an average of 326.3 yards (20th). The 30th-ranked red-zone scoring percentage is the real concern here, as is the lack of a standout run game. However, C.J. Stroud and Woody Marks tend to do just enough to squeak by, while the group of pass catchers has some intriguing names stepping up. Beyond Nico Collins, one of the league’s top wideouts, rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel both housed long touchdowns to start last week’s win and could be in line for greater shares of the opportunity here. Greater integration of their abilities, especially Noel’s speed, could take this offense up a notch. The defense is what truly wins games for the Texans though. The unit leads the league in points (16.6) and yards allowed per game (274.4), also giving up the fourth-lowest third-down conversion rate. Houston sits fourth against both the run and pass, also ranking sixth in sack percentage and third with 1.3 takeaways per game. The absence of standout cornerback Kamari Lassiter (ankle/knee) hurts, but the remainder of the team is largely healthy.

Colts vs. Texans pick, best bet

On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Texans are 10.5-point favorites at home with -650 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Colts are listed at +470 to win outright with a meager game total of 38.5 points. As far as betting splits go, 90% of straight bets favor Houston while 64% favor the over on the total.

Yes, it can be tough to bet Week 18 games at times when starters aren’t on the field, but with the Texans still within distance of their third consecutive AFC South title with a win and a Jacksonville Jaguars loss, they’ll likely keep everyone in unless this game or their rival’s gets entirely out of hand. This one almost certainly won’t be close so long as Jonathan Taylor doesn’t post a massive outing. The superstar rushed for just 85 yards on 21 carries without a touchdown in the last meeting between these teams, and there’s significantly less of a threat via the passing game to help open running lanes than in that outing. Houston should dominate at the line of scrimmage and pressure Riley Leonard throughout the game, keeping the rookie very uncomfortable and forcing him into mistakes. A start against this defense bodes very poorly for the Notre Dame product, leading to under 13.5 points for the Colts as a top betting pick.

Even if the Texans’ offense comes out slowly, Houston can still win this matchup without breaking much of a sweat as long as its defense performs up to par.

Best bet: IND Colts under 13.5 points (-110)