Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 7’s game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Washington Commanders.

This one smells like heat. The Cowboys bring the league’s most efficient offense to the doorstep of a division rival with turnover swagger and a rookie quarterback who hasn’t blinked yet. Dallas owns the top EPA/play offense in football (+0.187), leads the league in passing EPA, and drops 29.7 points per game—third-best in the NFL. But they’re favored by less than a field goal because their defense is, in a word, gasoline. They’ve allowed over 30 points in four of their last five, and their zone-heavy secondary has been picked apart by every tier of quarterback—from Bryce Young to Penix to Daniels himself in Week 1. This matchup replays that same script in reverse, with Washington now holding the rhythm, playing looser, and nursing just enough playmaking to answer every haymaker. Throw in McLaurin’s potential return, CeeDee Lamb’s reactivation, and a divisional grudge with serious playoff leverage, and you get one of the loudest toss-ups on the board. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 7’s game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Washington Commanders.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Dallas is allowing 30.7 points per game (31st), and opponents convert a league-high 53.2% of third downs—over 13% above the NFL average. They rank dead last in EPA/play allowed and 32nd in pass defense, surrendering 7.5 yards per pass play. This isn’t a defense with a weak spot—it’s one large air pocket. Cowboys games are averaging 799.2 combined yards, the highest in the league, and when the ball goes back and forth this freely, margins shrink fast.

Washington isn’t far behind in the race to the shootout. Their games average 702.5 total yards (4th most), and they allow 7.0 yards per pass play (27th). Yet the Commanders have built a real identity under Jayden Daniels. They score 26.3 points per game (7th), and their red-zone offense is razor-sharp, punching in touchdowns on 73.3% of trips—second-best in the NFL. Daniels has brought composure and control to a team that couldn’t find it last year. In back-to-back games, he’s thrown for 8.9 and 8.1 yards per attempt, added 39 and 52 on the ground, and stayed turnover-free. Even without Terry McLaurin last week and with Deebo Samuel quiet, Daniels still dropped 21.6 fantasy points. He leads the NFL with a 135.4 passer rating on throws of 20+ yards—and Dallas ranks 30th defending those shots, allowing 53.6% completions and 6 touchdowns on deep balls.

Dallas will need to win on script. They run 64.2 plays per game (6th), gain a league-best 6.0 yards per play, and convert third downs at 43.1% (8th). The offense is rounding into form: CeeDee Lamb returns, KaVontae Turpin stretches the field, and Jake Ferguson leads the team in targets (51), yards (305), and touchdowns (4). Dak Prescott has thrown three or more touchdowns in three straight games and finished top six at the position each week. He’s red-hot because he has to be. Dallas reaches third down on 40.7% of its series (5th most), and their defense almost always gives it back. Opponents are completing 71.8% of passes (29th), averaging 8.3 yards per attempt (32nd), and posting a 7.3% touchdown rate (30th). They’ve allowed multiple passing scores in five straight games—three or more in four.

Commanders vs. Cowboys pick, best bet

Washington runs the ball on nearly 47% of snaps (7th), and Jacory Croskey-Merritt—nicknamed Bill in-house, in case you’ve been under a rock—has become the ballast. Since Week 3, Bill’s logged over 16 touches a game and carved out a steady early-down presence. The Dallas front just lost Derrick Brown and already allows 142.2 rushing yards per game (29th). That opens cutback lanes and softens play-action. Daniels doesn’t need McLaurin to win here; with Deebo on crossers and Ertz anchoring the middle, the short game creates long gains. Bill just keeps the pace humming.

Narrative heat builds under the surface. Dallas has dropped two of its last three, including a 30–27 collapse to Carolina that cracked the locker room open. Another loss tightens the leash. Washington plays freer. They’ve won four of five, Daniels hasn’t turned the ball over in three weeks, and the defense—leaky as it is—has forced five red-zone takeaways. These two teams opened the season against each other. Since that game, Washington’s rookie quarterback has matured, the offensive line has stabilized, and the Cowboys’ defense has imploded. Now the rematch lives in fast tempo, deep shots, and the first bad throw that hits a shoulder pad instead of a chest plate.

Expect fireworks. These are the two worst pass defenses by EPA/play, the two hottest deep ball quarterbacks by rating, and two of the steadiest offensive lines in protection. One stop will win it.

Projected score: Cowboys 31, Commanders 30. The play is the over at 54.5. And we’re eyeing alternate totals all the way to 59.

Best bet: Cowboys vs. Commanders o54.5 total points (-105)

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!

For a prop lean, Jayden Daniels Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-135). Even at the juiced number, this prop still plays. Jayden Daniels steps into the perfect convergence of volume, matchup, and form. He’s thrown for multiple scores in two of his last three, leads the NFL in passer rating on throws of 20+ yards (135.4), and now draws a Dallas defense that has allowed 3+ passing touchdowns in four of its last five games. The Cowboys are giving up a league-worst 8.3 yards per attempt, a 71.8% completion rate, and the most passing points per game to quarterbacks (21.5). Daniels has already dissected Cover 2 this season—Dallas’ most frequent shell—completing 81% of his throws for 8.2 YPA and a 116.7 rating. With Bill Croskey-Merritt softening the front and Zach Ertz and Deebo Samuel winning underneath, Daniels has the structure and tempo to punch in two through the air and cash this number even at the steeper price.

Best prop lean: Jayden Daniels o1.5 passing touchdowns (-135)

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!