LUBBOCK, Texas (KCBD) – We’re settling into a quiet stretch of weather.
Saturday will stay sunny but cool, Sunday starts a gradual warm-up, and next week looks mostly dry. But there are a few fronts on the horizon that may shake things up.
The gusty north winds from Friday have died down and a surface high is centered to our north, sliding in just behind the recent cold front yesterday.
High pressure(KCBD)
This has helped keep things nice and cool in several ways. Since high pressure acts as a lid, there’s no mechanism to mix in warmer air.
On top of that, air flows outward from high pressure. Since we’re on the south side, that air flow comes from the chillier north.
Beneath the high pressure, the air is sinking, which kind of stamps out cloud formation. Fewer clouds mean less insulation overnight and cooler daytime starts. All of this is why Saturday night is the perfect set up for another round of freezing temperatures from radiational cooling.
After sunset, clear skies will allow heat absorbed during the day to escape(KCBD)
Radiational cooling is strongest on clear, calm winter nights like tonight. After sunset, the ground releases heat it absorbed during the day. With clear skies, that heat escapes straight into space and the overnight winds won’t be strong enough to move that cold air so it sticks around.
Overnight the winds will be light and maintain a northerly flow(KCBD)
All of that means that temperatures will drop quickly tonight. Some areas like Muleshoe and Portales will see lows in the teens. Others will see temperatures in the mid to low-20s to low 30s.
Lows tonight(KCBD)
Sunday will start to turn the corner with slightly warmer compared to Saturday. Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Light northerly winds will stick around for the morning but shift to the southwest by late Sunday afternoon.
Winds shift tomorrow(KCBD)
That shift is key to the upcoming weather pattern change because it allows warmer air to filter back in the area.
The overall theme next week is milder temperatures
Monday will see temperatures slightly warmer as the southwest flow continues. The high pressure shifts east of the region which allows warmer air to continue moving in.
Temperature trend(KCBD)
The warmest day in the stretch is likely Tuesday. Southwest winds will dominate and the upper-level winds are weak, so nothing will disrupt the warming.
By mid-week, a larger weather pattern sets up that may slip another cold front into our areas, potentially pushing temperatures back down to near normal for this time of year.
7 day forecast(KCBD)
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