Jan. 11, 2026, 11:19 a.m. ET

The San Antonio Spurs (27-11) visit the Minnesota Timberwolves (25-14) Sunday. Tip-off from Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota, is set for 7 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Spurs vs. Timberwolves odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Minnesota leads 1-0

San Antonio escaped with a 100-95 win over the Boston Celtics Saturday, covering as a 1-point road favorite while the Under (231.5) cashed. G De’Aaron Fox and C Victor Wembanyama each scored 21 points, while F Keldon Johnson finished with 18 points and 10 assists in the win. The Spurs have won back-to-back games and have held opponents under 100 points in both victories.

Minnesota suffered a 146-134 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers Saturday, failing to cover as a 2.5-point road underdog as the Over (240.5) was smashed. G Anthony Edwards and C Naz Reid each scored 25 points, but Minnesota couldn’t overcome allowing 5 different Cavaliers to score more than 20 points. The loss snapped a 4-game winning streak for the Timberwolves, who have scored at least 120 points in 6 of their last 7 games.

The Timberwolves routed the Spurs 125-112 Nov. 30, covering as a 4.5-point home favorite while the Over (233.5) cashed. Edwards led all scorers with 32 points, and F Julius Randle added 22 points and 12 assists. Minnesota knocked down 17 3-pointers to San Antonio’s 8 in that matchup.

Watch the NBA on Fubo!Spurs at Timberwolves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:19 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Spurs +118 (bet $100 to win $118) | Timberwolves -145 (bet $145 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Spurs +2.5 (-110) | Timberwolves -2.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 234.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)Spurs at Timberwolves key injuries

Spurs

(Not yet submitted — below was for Saturday’s game)

F Devin Vassell (hip) out

Timberwolves

(Not yet submitted — below was for Saturday’s game)

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Spurs at Timberwolves picks and predictionsPrediction

Spurs 120, Timberwolves 116

PASS.

I slightly lean toward the Spurs to pull off the upset as +115 underdogs, but with the way C Rudy Gobert has been playing defensively for Minnesota — and with this being the second night of a back-to-back for both teams — the moneyline is simply too risky. Pass on the moneyline and back San Antonio on the safer spread instead of chasing the higher payout.

BET SPURS +2.5 (-110).

San Antonio has covered the spread in 6 of its last 9 matchups against Minnesota overall. The Spurs are also 21-17-1 ATS this season, while the Timberwolves sit at just 17-22 ATS.

San Antonio’s defensive strength on both the perimeter and interior, combined with its ability to generate scoring from multiple players and in multiple ways, gives the Spurs clear paths to keep this game close — especially with Minnesota potentially resting players on the second night of a back-to-back.

LEAN OVER 234.5 (-115).

The Over has hit in 7 of Minnesota’s last 10 games and sits at 21-18 for the Timberwolves this season. The Over has also cashed in each of the last 3 matchups between these teams played in Minnesota.

Given the way Minnesota has been scoring lately, this projects as a fast-paced, offense-driven game — assuming most players are available.

This is only a lean, however, as the Under is 8-2 in San Antonio’s last 10 games and both teams boast some of the premier defenses in the NBA.

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