The Texans are/were right up there with the Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars for the teams that entered the playoffs with the most momentum. A slow start and injuries had them starting 0-3 and then dipping to 3-5 before really turning a corner to finish 12-5 as the top Wild Card team in the AFC.
An 18-15 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 9 is still Houston’s most recent defeat. DeMeco Ryans’ squad rolled off nine wins in a row to close out the regular season, extending the winning streak to double digits when they beat the Steelers.
Much like the Patriots’ last opponent, Houston brings in a formidable defense and an offense that has talent but hasn’t always played up to expectations. Will that change this week in Foxboro? Let’s get to know the Texans ahead of Sunday’s game…
Texans offense
Tim Warner/Getty ImagesBiggest strength: Ball security
While there are plenty of similarities between the Texans and Chargers, one big difference is how Houston protects the football. The Texans only had 12 turnovers during the regular season, which was the second fewest in the NFL. Combined with a defense that ranked third in takeaways (29), that really shrinks the margin of error for their opponents.
Of their 12 turnovers, only three were fumbles. Houston put the ball on the ground just seven times this year. Quarterback C.J. Stroud led the team with two fumbles – after having at least six in each of his first two seasons – while no other player had more than one.
However, this turnover trend noticeably broke in the Texans’ Wild Card win over the Steelers when they turned the ball over three times, with an interception and two fumbles lost (he fumbled five times total). An issue with the Steelers defense specifically, or a sign of a new late-season issue?
It’s worth noting that when the Texans do turn the ball over, they tend to come in bunches. Their 12 regular season turnovers occurred in just seven games, with more multi-turnover games (4) than single turnover games (3).
While the Texans have done a good job of holding onto the football, they haven’t always been great about moving it. Their 5.1 yards per play rank tied for 23rd in the NFL.
That’s put them in some bad situations. Overall the Texans averaged 7.3 yards to go on third down this year, the seventh-longest distance in the NFL. That has resulted in them converting just 37.2% of their third downs, which ranks 23rd. They were better against Pittsburgh though, going 10-of-15.
Red zone offense has also been an issue, creating a ‘weakness-on-weakness’ matchup with the Patriots. Houston has scored a touchdown 46.3% of the time in the red area, which ranks 30th in the NFL. They were 2-of-3 against the Steelers.
Texans defense
Alex Slitz/Getty ImagesBiggest strength: Pass rush
The Texans’ pass rush has become the stuff of legends this year. While the unit is led by Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson coming off the edge, they have players that can get to the quarterback across the line and into the second level off of the blitz on the rare occasions (21%) that they bring extra help on the rush.
Houston finished the regular season with 47 sacks, tied for the seventh-most in football. Opponents also had the sixth-shortest time to throw, at 2.78 seconds.
Even when they’re not getting sacks, the pass rush just speeding up quarterbacks can impact the game in other ways. The Texans forced 29 turnovers this year, the third most in the NFL. Their opposing completion percentage was 59.3%, the third-lowest in the league.
Biggest weakness: Rushing quarterbacks
When the Texans’ pass rush doesn’t get home, quarterbacks have had a chance to create. Houston has allowed 6.4 yards per carry to quarterbacks this year, the third-most in the NFL. It’s the price to pay for how aggressive they are with a four-man rush, and how much they play man coverage.
Granted, that number comes at low volume. No team in the NFL has had fewer quarterback rushes against them (52). But quarterbacks with scrambling ability like Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence have given them a lot to handle at times. It’ just about not getting caught up in the rush.
Key players
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QB C.J. Stroud: Stroud still doesn’t look like the same player he did as a rookie, but he’s played cleanly enough to help the Texans win – especially since coming back from an early-season injury. He threw for 3,041 yards with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 14 games this year, while posting a career-high 64.5% completion percentage. However he hasn’t handled the blitz well, and ranks 19th of 23 qualifying quarterbacks with a 60.9 passer rating against pressure.
TE Dalton Schultz: Schultz was Stroud’s top target this year, with 82 catches for 777 yards and three touchdowns. He lines up mostly inline as a traditional tight end, but still creates enough separation to be a volume target. Even more could be on his plate this week, with top wide receiver Nico Collins in concussion protocol.
EDGE Danielle Hunter: Hunter’s 15 sacks led the Texans this year. A smart, powerful rusher, he mostly lines up opposite the opposing team’s left tackle. He has an ability to get his hands on the football, with three pass breakups and three forced fumbles this year.
EDGE Will Anderson: Opposite Hunter is Anderson, the third overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. He was second on the team with 12 sacks, but also recorded a team-high 20 tackles for loss. Like Hunter, he regularly gets his hands on the football.
LB Azeez Al-Shaair: Leading the way at the second level for the Texans, Al-Shaair paced the team with 103 tackles. He’s constantly around the football in the run and pass game, and plays with a violent edge. His game is a mix of the modern rangy linebacker with some old-school physicality as a tone-setter.
Last game
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The Texans’ Wild Card win over the Steelers was a pretty good summation of who they are as a football team. It was a physical, defensive football game most of the way. Late in the game the Houston pass rush really started to get home, allowing the Texans to open things up.
One break from their typical style was the turnovers, with Stroud’s three interceptions. That came as he was under pressure 48.6% of the time. They were able to take the pressure off of him at times though with the run game. Their revolving door at running back continued with Woody Marks having his first career 100-yard performance.
Defensively the Texans were in Aaron Rodgers’ face the whole game. They had four sacks and 17 pressures on 37 dropbacks. When Rodgers did get the ball or hand it off they were quick to limit yards after catch or contact, with good tackling performances from Al-Shaair and fellow linebacker Henry To’oTo’o, and defensive back Jalen Pitre.
Last time versus the Patriots
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The Patriots and Texans did not meet in the regular season. Their last matchup was Week 5 of the 2024 season. Houston came into Gillette and won that game 41-21 dropping the Jerod Mayo-led Patriots to 1-5.
That game was most notable for being the first career NFL start for Drake Maye. Maye was up-and-down in that game, completing 20-of-33 passes for 243 yards with three touchdowns, two interceptions, and a fumble lost on a strip sack (he was sacked four times total, three by Anderson and one by Hunter). He had the deep ball working with a vertical to Kayshon Boutte and crossing route to DeMario Douglas, but made too many rookie mistakes. He’s come a long way since, and will need to cut down on those mistakes in this one.
When the Texans had the ball their run game was effective, but neither running back from that game – Joe Mixon or Dameon Pierce – will be on the roster on Sunday. Stroud was short but efficient completing 20 of his 31 passes for 192 yards with three touchdowns and a pick. His top target from that game will be on the other side for this one, as Stefon Diggs caught six passes for 77 yards and a score. The Patriots did a good job containing Schultz, who caught just four of his eight targets for 27 yards.