Democrats Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico face an uphill battle in Texas, with a new poll showing both trailing two of three leading Republican candidates in hypothetical Senate matchups and only managing a tie against state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey suggests Democrats’ hopes of flipping the Lone Star State hinge on the GOP nominee. Talarico, a Texas state representative, trails incumbent Senator John Cornyn 47 percent to 44 percent and House Representative Wesley Hunt by the same margin, while tying with Paxton at 46 percent each. Crockett, who represents the state’s 30th congressional district, posts similar numbers, down 48 percent to 43 percent against Cornyn and Hunt but level with Paxton at 46 percent. With roughly 9 percent undecided across every matchup, the race’s trajectory will turn on the GOP primary outcome, suburban turnout, and whether either Democrat can consolidate wavering voters.
The GOP contest is wide open. Cornyn and Paxton are neck-and-neck at 26 percent and 27 percent, respectively, with Hunt pulling 16 percent. Nearly 29 percent of Republicans are undecided, making a May runoff almost certain.
Governor Greg Abbott, meanwhile, maintains an eight-point lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, 50 percent to 42 percent, with 8 percent undecided, in the gubernatorial race.
Updates to follow.
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