Mario Guerrero, a construction leader in Edinburg, says he backed Donald Trump for president in 2024 after what he called an “insane” spike in border crossings under the previous administration.
But this winter, Guerrero, executive director of the South Texas Builders Association, said federal construction-site raids have disrupted daily operations, with workers staying away and employers struggling to keep jobs moving.
“The whole workforce, whether people have proper documentation or not, they’re all scared,” he said. “It’s affecting our businesses a lot.”
While immigration remains a reliable rallying cry in Texas politics, the dynamics have changed. Crossings are down sharply from recent peaks, and Republican candidates are leaning harder on enforcement.
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It’s a turn analysts say is meant to energize their conservative base but could narrow the party’s broader appeal.
For now, the federal crackdowns have become a new measure of campaign toughness.
In the Texas Senate race, incumbent John Cornyn and his GOP challengers, Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston, have voiced support for the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents operating in Minneapolis and other cities.
They’ve put enforcement first before any overhaul of immigration law, aimed at voters who prioritize security, physical barriers and strong interior action beyond the border.
But the heightened visibility of ICE operations remains an electoral flashpoint, embraced by Republicans as necessary to restoring order and deterrence and criticized by Democrats and immigration advocates for straining communities and local economies.
That split already is shaping strategy in advance of Texas’ March 3 primary.
U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas and state Rep. James Talarico of Austin, vying for the Democratic Senate nomination, are targeting the fallout of stepped-up enforcement, from labor shortages to civil liberty concerns.
They’ve pitched themselves as candidates ready to confront Trump’s immigration agenda and predict the GOP’s enforcement-heavy messaging will falter in the fall election.
Crossings fall
Federal data show why the campaign arguments generally have moved away from border crossings.
Border Patrol encounters have turned from a tidal wave to a trickle, with most migrants crossing the border quickly turned back or placed into expedited removal.
The decline has altered the political terrain, with Republicans pointing to numbers as a policy success and shifting the debate to inland enforcement.
ICE apprehensions, meanwhile, have jumped 132% nationally between January and October of 2025 versus that same time frame in 2024.
Scrutiny of confrontational enforcement tactics has intensified, especially after the fatal shooting of Renee Good in her vehicle during an ICE operation in Minneapolis.
Texas Republicans running for Senate have stood firmly behind Trump’s enforcement push and the ICE agents carrying it out:
Cornyn has said protests obstructing ICE operations cannot be tolerated. “These groups are trying to taunt and interfere with law enforcement in these cities and states that are basically sanctuaries for illegal immigration,” he said.Paxton reposted a statement from Vice President JD Vance that the agent’s “life was endangered and he fired in self- defense.”Hunt recently reposted a report that the agent who shot Good suffered internal bleeding. “If Renee Good had simply put her car in park instead of using it as a weapon, she would still be alive today,” Hunt said.
At the same time, Paxton and Hunt have cast Cornyn as out of step with Trump on immigration, citing his past skepticism of building a “giant wall between the United States and Mexico from sea to shining sea.”
Paxton signed an immigration enforcement agreement with the federal government last year, formalizing Texas’ cooperation with Trump’s immigration directives.
He praised Trump for taking “bold action to make America safe again,” and said he stood by him in restoring national sovereignty, securing the border and ensuring criminal aliens face justice.
Paxton has since pointed to Texas’ role in federal operations, including Houston-area raids by his office that led to the detention of 50 people in the country illegally.
Hunt, meanwhile, has introduced legislation to codify Trump’s executive actions, requiring criminal and medical background checks for those seeking entry and mandating removal of people who entered illegally during a declared invasion.
Cornyn said his opponents have taken his previous comments out of context.
Earlier this month, he hosted a group of Senate Republican colleagues at the border, highlighting new funding for deportations and border security.
After the Minneapolis incident, Cornyn announced a proposed bill to raise penalties for individuals who assault or resist law enforcement. It also would impose minimum sentences for those who use vehicles to attack law officers.
Drawing a contrast
The Democratic Senate contenders are taking a different approach, denouncing what they call overly aggressive and unprofessional ICE tactics.
Talarico has slammed Biden’s border record while condemning Trump-era enforcement tactics he says go too far.
“That failure by Joe Biden paved the way for Donald Trump to come in with masked men in unmarked vehicles, secret police tearing parents from their children, kidnapping people off the street,” Talarico said on a YouTube political program.
He said the country can welcome immigrants while still tracking entries and maintaining security.
He has called for a comprehensive approach that includes more immigration judges, more Border Patrol agents, an overhaul of the asylum system and relief of the visa backlog.
Talarico supporters say his “welcome mat, locked door” message of holding the Trump administration accountable while promoting sensible security measures will help Democrats win the general election.
Crockett said Talarico lacks the federal experience needed to handle immigration, contrasting it with her work on a key House immigration subcommittee.
She cited legislation she sponsored to bar immigration officers from wearing face coverings during operations, along with her background as a civil rights attorney.
Crockett said she supports border security through new technology and clearing backlogs in immigration cases.
She drew sharp reaction after likening ICE operations to “slave patrols” and saying Latino voters who backed Trump have a “slave mentality.”
Crockett defended the remarks, saying voters should weigh her words against the actions she was criticizing and that her “slave mentality” comment was meant to express solidarity with Latinos and was misconstrued.
A mixed electorate
Independent polling suggests a gap between how candidates talk about immigration and how voters weigh it.
While concern about illegal immigration remains high, voter attitudes are mixed, with many Texans expressing both anxiety about border security and recognition of immigrants’ economic contributions.
That matters beyond GOP primaries, where immigration often is framed in starker terms. In general elections, economic concerns and unease with aggressive enforcement can reduce immigration’s sway.
Amerika Garcia Grewal of Eagle Pass, who runs a monthly border vigil honoring migrants who died crossing the Rio Grande, said GOP policies risk backlash as interior actions become more visible.
ICE tactics are “backfiring on Republicans” as voters weigh the human toll of aggressive enforcement, she said.
Wayne Hamilton, who runs Project Red TX, a group recruiting GOP candidates in South Texas, dismissed that, saying the president’s policies have restored order and improved daily life along the border.
“People are just thankful somebody took a leadership role…so that their lives could return to some semblance of normal,” he said.
Jeronimo Cortina, a political scientist at the University of Houston, said the border no longer anchors the debate the way it once did. The unsettled question, he said, is the “big topic” of how immigration politics evolve as the Texas race moves forward.
Immigration split
Republicans say
• More border security measures needed, even as crossings fall
• Tough enforcement shows resolve, not border flow alone
State action is needed after past federal failures
Democrats say
• Border needs management, not escalation
• Aggressive tactics harm communities and economies
• State crackdowns are costly, risky and ineffective long term
Political stakes
• Immigration remains central in primaries even as conditions evolve
• Debate has shifted from crossings to enforcement actions
• General election voters respond differently than base voters