FOXBORO — For teams still standing in the postseason, there’s a fine line between remaining true to what got them here and a refusal to adapt.

Lose sight of the first or get caught up in the second, and either way, you’ll be watching the AFC Championship game from your couch. Teams have to live on that line.

Through one week, the Patriots have done that. They adhered to their “don’t change the macaroni” line of thinking against the Chargers in the AFC Wild Card Round, adhering to the four pillars of Mike Vrabel’s program since he arrived in Foxboro. 

They showed “effort and finish” by outlasting Los Angeles in the fourth quarter. For the most part, they made good decisions. They created ball-disruption late in the game to help them seal it. Their technique and fundamentals showed up in the game’s biggest moments, like during Drake Maye’s touchdown pass to Hunter Henry and Milton Williams’ game-ending sack.

That’s what they’ve emphasized. That’s long who they’ve wanted to be.

But they morphed a bit, too.

They went from being a Maye-run show to a defensive-driven operation last week. Some of Maye’s best plays were throwaways late in the first half to help New England preserve a field-goal opportunity. Meanwhile, a defense that has had its issues at times this season posted a performance that only the 1985 Bears have replicated in the postseason.

Adapt or die, as they say. And that metamorphosis from being a team that uses explosive offensive plays like oxygen to one that relies on a suffocating defense may have to continue this week.

Their Divisional Round opponent, the Texans, features one of the best defenses in football. Houston’s pass-rush is relentless, while its linebackers and defensive backs fly around the field like they’re moving in fast-forward. Good decisions and ball-security will be at a premium for the Patriots offense.

Yes, there are areas that Maye and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels may be able to exploit — and we’ll get to those below — but not losing the game will be tantamount to winning it when the football is in their possession.

The Patriots defense, on the other hand, will have opportunities to get aggressive against a beleaguered offensive line and a quarterback who has tended to wilt when pressured. Sound similar to the situation they faced a week ago? 

Let’s get to all the details in our preview of the matchups that’ll matter most…

Matchup that will determine the outcome

Drake Maye’s processing power vs. Texans’ “take-your-head-off” defenders

This game will be about speed for Drake Maye.

Yes, his physical speed should help. The Texans have allowed 9.6 yards per quarterback scramble this season, last in the NFL. And since Week 13, they’ve allowed the fourth-highest EPA per quarterback run (excluding kneels and sneaks). Chunk gains could be there to be had for the signal-caller who rushed for 66 yards in the Divisional Round, including a 37-yarder at the end of the first half that set up a field goal.

But while Maye is on the move, he knows he’ll have to think quickly to protect himself. 

“Those guys, especially at the linebacker level, they’re going to try to take your head off,” Maye said. “I respect them for it. They do it at a really high level. They tackle the ball-carrier hard. They’ll punish them. They’ll make you pay for it.”

Maye also will have to see things quickly from the pocket. While the Texans are best in the league at defending the pass from an EPA per play standpoint, they rank 14th in explosive play rate allowed, and they’re 16th in EPA per play against throws that travel at least 20 yards or more down the field.

But to take advantage of those potential openings — maybe off of play-action, against which the Texans have allowed the fifth-highest EPA per play since Week 13 — Maye needs to be able to assess with alacrity whether he has the necessary time to take those shots.

Maye won’t have to make the same kind of snap-to-snap diagnoses against Houston as he did against the disguise-heavy Chargers. And that may be a good thing, because there were a couple of instances — even in quick-game pass-call situations — where Maye held onto the football for an extended period because the defense changed the picture on him. That’s what happened on his fourth-quarter strip-sack that Jared Wilson was able to recover.

The Texans, by contrast, are a do-what-they-do kind of defense. They just do what they do extremely well. But if Maye can recognize what he’s seeing, and if he can make quick decisions — both with his arm and his legs — there will be opportunities for him to take some big swings in this one. 

Matchup that will surprise you

Josh McDaniels vs. Texans’ aggressive front

The Patriots have not been a screen-heavy team in 2025. But if ever there was a week for Josh McDaniels to dip into his bag of screen calls — and he’s shown a lot of them over the years — this might be it.

The Texans have allowed the third-most yards per attempt on screens (12.0) and the highest EPA per play on those types of throws (0.92) since Week 13.

What makes a good screen team, running back Rhamondre Stevenson was asked this week? 

“Aggressive fronts,” he said quickly. “Up-the-field fronts. Pass-rushing fronts.”

Stevenson added: “That front four gets after it. Everybody’s talking about their d-ends. They’re elite. We’ve gotta make that a focus, slow them down, and try to get the ball off.”

If you’re looking for a surprise wrinkle from McDaniels, it could be throwing it back to Patriots offenses of old and showing off a couple of different types of screens that might use Houston’s aggressiveness to New England’s advantage.

Matchup that could ruin your Sunday

Patriots’ offensive line vs. Texans’ elite pass-rush duo

Will Campbell has enough on his plate this week preparing for both Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. He doesn’t want to add more to it by worrying about how people outside One Patriot Place assessed his performance against the Chargers.

He was on the scene for a strip sack and four additional hurries last Sunday night.

“I don’t give a s— what anyone says to be honest with you,” Campbell told reporters Wednesday. “It’s easy to type behind a Twitter account that’s fake. I hold myself to the highest expectation of anybody. I want to be perfect, and it’s hard for me to get told that it’s going to be hard to be perfect.

“The Chargers, obviously I didn’t pitch a shutout. I had two, three plays I wish I could have had back. But that’s $300 million in defensive ends. I got a ton of respect for those dudes. It’s going to be like that every week in the playoffs. They had a good group. This team has an extremely talented group…”

“You got to be willing to spill a little blood and violence. And you just have to hope you don’t spill more than they do. That’s the name of the game.”

Anderson and Hunter can both win in a variety of ways. They have length. They’re explosive. And they have unrelenting motors.

McDaniels will cook up ways to help both Campbell and right tackle Morgan Moses (limited in practice this week with a knee injury), with chips on the edges from tight ends and backs. In those moments, tackles will have to be ready to make the most of that help by closing down the space between themselves and Texans rushers to snuff out any pressure before it starts. 

Scheme could help, too. We’ve mentioned the screen game and play-action game, both of which may help specifically with Houston’s ends. 

Screens can help plant seeds of doubt into pass-rushers, when they’re successful. And against play-action, if the Patriots can run the ball successfully, Anderson and Hunter will have to respect the fact that the ball might be handed off and play their run responsibilities.

Staying out of obvious passing situations will be key in helping the Patriots offensive line, too, and an efficient running game will be critical in that regard.

Perhaps a steady diet of “Duo” runs with double-teams at the line of scrimmage will pay dividends. Since Week 13, the Texans have allowed the seventh-highest EPA per carry against “Duo” and the fourth-most yards per attempt (5.2).

Matchup that will make your Sunday

Zak Kuhr vs. C.J. Stroud

Will Patriots defensive play-caller Zak Kuhr dial up another aggressive-as-it-is creative game plan for this week? It worked against Justin Herbert, and it could generate similar results against Houston’s quarterback CJ Stroud.

Under pressure, Stroud ranked 27th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks with a 5.7 turnover-worthy play percentage and a rating of 60.9, according to Pro Football Focus.

Getting Stroud into obvious passing situations will be critical to Kuhr getting the opportunity to dial up disguises and blitzes. That’ll mean slowing down Houston’s early-down passing game and run calls. But against a receiver group that could be without Nico Collins (concussion protocol) and a running game that ranked 29th in EPA per rush this season, that’s doable.

While struggling under pressure, Stroud has been fine when blitzed. The suggestion there is that he sees blitzers coming pre-snap, gets the ball out before he’s pressured, and creates positive plays. His completion percentage when blitzed (66.0), yards per attempt (8.3) and sack rate (3.7) are all among the top 10 since Week 13.

The Patriots, of course, could simply blitz him anyway. Herbert came into the Wild Card Round as one of the best in football against the blitz and left having been unable to score a touchdown against New England’s blitz-happy (45.5 percent blitz rate) plan. 

Prediction: Patriots 20, Texans 17