Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for Sunday’s NFL Playoff game between the Houston Texans and New England Patriots in this Divisional Round showdown.

In the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, the league’s most fearsome defense meets a young quarterback who took the league by storm as a rightful MVP candidate in just his second season. The Houston Texans hit the road on Sunday and head to Foxborough, Massachusetts for a date with the New England Patriots. As C.J. Stroud and Drake Maye go head-to-head, the path to a Super Bowl is now wide open for the winner following Bo Nix’s season-ending ankle injury yesterday. Which one of these teams will emerge with the right to face the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game?

Read up on the matchup with a Texans vs. Patriots prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Divisional Round duel.

Texans vs. Patriots prediction, preview

Houston Texans

These Texans looked doomed after Week 3 with a winless record at the time, a result which had them written off by most pundits as a legitimate playoff threat. Yet the team buckled down and rattled off 12 wins in its next 14 outings, ending the regular season at 12-5 with a nine-game winning streak. While Houston fell a game shy of its third straight AFC South title, it did head into a Wild Card matchup and sent the Pittsburgh Steelers — and potentially Aaron Rodgers — riding into the sunset with a 30-6 demolition in Steel City.

Whereas many teams in the postseason ride elite offenses through the bracket, the Texans are here on the strength of one of the NFL’s most elite defenses. They allow just 16.7 points and 273.3 yards per game, both league-best marks. They hold opponents to the fourth-lowest third-down conversion rate and 12th-lowest red-zone scoring percentage as well, largely limiting any opponent in front of them. Houston’s unit looks great in all phases, giving up just 92.0 rushing yards per game (third) on 4.0 YPC (fifth) while also limiting quarterbacks to an average of 181.3 passing yards (fifth), 6.4 yards per pass (fifth) and a 58.92% completion rate (third). It’s clear to see why this group is so successful — a star EDGE duo of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter wreak havoc up front, Azeez Al-Shaair holds down the linebacker corps, and a secondary with Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter and Jalen Pitre shut down airspace while not being afraid to lay a hit on a ball carrier. Houston also generated 51 sacks in the regular season (fourth), good for 3.0 per game while averaging 1.7 takeaways per contest (third).

Offensively, things look much bleaker. The Texans post 24.1 points (13th) and 331.5 yards per game (16th), converting third downs at the 18th-best rate and ranking 29th in red-zone scoring percentage. Inconsistencies are frequent with each possession almost like a coin flip between a field-goal drive or an ugly three-and-out. The run game spearheaded by rookie Woody Marks produces 112.0 rushing yards per contest (22nd), but averages just 4.0 YPC (28th). A passing attack led by C.J. Stroud posts 219.5 yards per outing (14th) with 6.9 yards per pass (18th) and a 62.70% completion rate as well, but he truly struggled with multiple turnovers last week and won’t have his top target available today. Nico Collins, the team’s leading receiver, has been ruled out with a concussion. That leaves tight end Dalton Schultz, veteran wideout Christian Kirk and rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel as the primary targets on Sunday.

New England Patriots

The home team dominated opponents this season, often on both sides of the ball to the tune of a 14-3 record and AFC East title. The Patriots put forth an incredible campaign to start the Mike Vrabel era, and while there are some naysayers who love to point out a historically easy schedule, it’s tough to deny their success. A grinding 16-3 victory in the Wild Card over the Los Angeles Chargers also showed that this team can do it in the postseason, even if it’s not exactly a pretty process.

The Pats’ offense is largely spectacular even despite a relative lack of star playmakers compared to other top teams. The unit averages 28.1 points (fifth) and 379.4 yards per game (third), averaging a league-high 6.2 yards per play. They convert third downs at the seventh-best rate but falter to 21st in red-zone scoring percentage, which seems like one of very few weaknesses. The production all flows through Drake Maye, a stellar second-year quarterback who has the passing attack humming to the tune of 249.6 yards per game (fourth) with a league-high 8.9 yards per pass and 71.05% completion rate. Wideout Stefon Diggs and tight end Hunter Henry are the primary playmakers through the air. However, the run game also averages 129.8 yards per game (fifth) and 4.5 YPC (13th) behind the efforts of TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson. This backfield split doesn’t afford a ton of work to either back, but the latter comes off three straight games of 100+ scrimmage yards with five total touchdowns in that sample.

Defensively, New England is quite stout as well. This side of the ball limits opponents to 17.9 points per game (third) and 290.3 yards of offense (sixth), ranking 10th in third-down conversion rate allowed but 27th in red-zone scoring rate. The Patriots boast one of the league’s top run defenses with 100.9 rushing yards allowed per contest (sixth) at a clip of 4.2 YPC (13th), but the secondary is also strong at 189.4 yards allowed via the air per game. Star cornerback Christian Gonzalez returns this week after spending a few days in concussion protocol, marking a major boost after concern that he may not play. There’s not a surplus of star power in this group like Houston has, but Harold Landry III (Q; knee) and K’Lavon Chaisson lead the team in sacks while Jaylinn Hawkins and Marcus Jones complement Gonzalez nicely in the secondary. The Patriots also tallied 41 sacks (2.4 per game) during the regular season with the ninth-best pressure rate and 1.1 takeaways per game (21st).

Texans vs. Patriots pick, best bet

On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Patriots are three-point favorites at home with -175 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Texans are listed at +145 to win outright with a low game total of 40.5 points. As far as betting splits go, 62% of straight bets favor New England while 69% favor the under on the total.

To be clear, it does make sense to see the Pats favored here. After all, they had two more wins in the regular season, have a more consistent offense and quarterback, and beat the better signal caller in the Wild Card last week as well. Given how impressive some of their outings were this season on both sides of the ball and a truly explosive offense that ranks second in aDOT by grinding in the run game to set up Maye’s deep ball, there’s certainly a clearer path for this team to win. The biggest questions are whether Stevenson and Henderson can move the chains against a see-ball, hit-ball defense as well as whether Maye can shine under the lights in the biggest game of his football career. The pressure is mounting and he has very little experience in high-stakes games after playing college football at North Carolina, and after a less-than-impressive outing last week, he now faces the toughest defense he’ll have seen all season.

Whether he handles business is uncertain, but the answer leans towards yes. A sneaky impediment to a New England win will be the sophomore’s tendency to take sacks since his 52 trips to the ground are the fourth-most of any quarterback and he’ll have Anderson Jr. and Hunter in his face throughout the afternoon. It’s clear that any path for a Texans upset will rely on the defense to create plays on a consistent basis, especially needing a couple of turnovers or a D/ST touchdown to put points on the board. Forcing Maye into mistakes is the most likely avenue to victory, but with Collins sidelined and a somewhat questionable group of weapons facing a very good Patriots defense, Houston can’t waste possessions on offense either. Another miracle performance of 100+ yards and a touchdown from Kirk may be a tough proposition against Gonzalez as a possible primary matchup, so the Texans may need to give a longer leash to Higgins and Noel here to create offense in this one.

There are clearer pathways to a win for New England than there are for the Texans, and while the latter certainly is capable of escaping Foxborough to advance, the odds aren’t in the visitors’ favor. Unless the stars align here, Maye and his teammates should prove they’re more than beneficiaries of an easy schedule and punch their tickets to the AFC Championship Game, setting up a matchup against the Broncos without Bo Nix. Regardless of who wins today, a trip to the Super Bowl appears likely for the victor.

Best bet: NE Patriots -3 (-120)