In the wake of Saturday’s 16-13 overtime win by the Texas Longhorns over the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian was confused.

“There were two fumbles that were on the ground that I’m still trying to figure out how we didn’t recover them,” Sarkisian said.

“Then there’s then there’s two punt return fumbles that are on the ground that I’m still trying to figure out how we didn’t recover,” Sarkisian said.

Four fumbles by Kentucky. Four recoveries by the Wildcats, missed opportunities for the Longhorns that contributed to the game going into overtime instead of giving the struggling Texas offense more chances at short fields.

“I think those were some opportunities, as good as we played defensively, where those could have really swung the momentum in the game that we just didn’t quite capitalize on. And so hey, we’ve got work to do to try to figure that out,” Sarkisian said.

The narrow escape from Commonwealth Stadium with a win came despite the second-biggest difference in net success rates of any game in Week 8, producing the paradoxical aspect of the game — the Horns deserved to lose based on the gap in net success rate, but had chances to take control of it anyway when the football was on the ground.

Poor fumble recovery luck has been a feature of the 2025 season for Texas as opponents have fumbled 12 times this season, tied for the eighth most nationally, but the Longhorns have only recovered four, a recovery rate of 33.3 percent that is tied for 90th.

A study of NFL teams in the 2000s found that teams “cannot maintain any consistency with respect to recovering fumbles,” but there are techniques that players have to bring to bear on the field. The most important is making a quick and sound decision about whether a fumble is a “city” fumble or a “country” fumble. A city fumble is a ball in traffic that requires players to use their dive technique, reaching for the football with two hands, pulling it into their stomach, and going into the fetal position. A country fumble in the open field can allow for a running fumble scoop, but players still have to make sure to slow down, bend their knees, and secure the football before accelerating.

With those techniques in mind, it’s worth individually looking at the four fumbles by Kentucky to determine whether Texas was a victim of bad fumble luck or the result of bad technique, and the impact a recovery might have had on the game.

The first fumble was a muffed punt late in the first quarter at the Kentucky 19-yard line.

Redshirt sophomore wide receiver Ryan Niblett, the team’s gunner, was in the best position to recover the fumble with good coverage on the play, but it bounced past him, and sophomore safety Jordon Johnson-Rubell also had a chance, but went in with one hand as the ball bounced to a Kentucky player who used his dive technique well.

Verdict: Bad fumble luck.

Impact: With the game still scoreless, a recovery would have given Texas the ball within field-goal range and afforded a chance to gain some offensive rhythm in a sudden-change situation at the edge of the red zone.

Forced fumble by Hero Kanu

The second fumble was arguably the most impactful missed opportunity. With Texas leading 7-0 in the third quarter after going three and out to open the second half, the Longhorns senior defensive tackle Hero Kanu combined with freshman nickel back Graceson Littleton to force a fumble by Wildcats running back Seth McGowan on the fourth play of the Kentucky drive.

Junior cornerback Manny Muhammad had the first chance at a recovery in traffic with several other players grasping for the football, impacting his inability to effectively use his dive technique as the ball squirted away. Reaching for it, Muhammad knocked it away from junior linebacker Anthony Hill Jr., who judged it as a country fumble and opted for a running scoop.

Verdict: Bad technique — Hill misjudged the fumble and should have used his dive technique instead because there was enough traffic around the ball to impact the play, which is exactly what happened.

Impact: Had Muhammad not knocked the ball away or if Hill had used proper technique, Texas would have recovered the ball around the Kentucky 30-yard line, within field-goal range. In a best-case scenario, Hill would have gotten away with trying to scoop the ball and could have scored.

Instead, the Longhorns defense was unable to get off the field on the drive by the Wildcats, which ultimately went 53 yards over 15 plays, ending with a made 46-yard field goal. Just as importantly, the drive took 8:44 off the clock, helping Kentucky for 10:17 in the third quarter and 39:20 overall, dominating the time of possession.

The second muffed punt came early in the fourth quarter, coming in a critical time of the game when Kentucky had just tied the game at 10-10 on quarterback Cutter Boley’s 16-yard touchdown scramble and Texas had just gone three and out when redshirt sophomore quarterback Arch Manning took a big hit under quick pressure on 3rd and 5, causing him to sail a ball over sophomore wide receiver Emmett Mosley, who had created separation on his slant route.

A strong effort in coverage by senior cornerback Jaylon Guilbeau forced punt returner Ty Bryant to call for a fair catch and put Guilbeau in position to recover the subsequent fumble, which bounced right back to Bryant after deflecting off his shoulder.

Verdict: Bad fumble luck.

Impact: By the fourth quarter, it was clear that the Texas offense needed all the help it could get from the defense and special teams, so recovering a fumble inside its own 15-yard line should have produced a field goal and the lead at worst.

After the Wildcats recovered the muffed punt, Longhorns sophomore edge Colin Simmons started to make a big impact on the game, sacking Boley on back-to-back plays, knocking the ball loose on the second sack.

As the ball came loose, Texas senior defensive tackle Travis Shaw reacted to the fumble with the quickness that made him a consensus five-star prospect in the 2022 recruiting class, but wasn’t able to control it with his dive technique.

Verdict: Bad technique. There’s some bad fumble luck involved here, and Shaw made the right decision to judge this as a city fumble, but when the ball started to bounce away to his left, he didn’t bring his right arm to get both hands on the football, contributing to his inability to recover it.

Impact: The fourth fumble to come in Kentucky territory, the potential recovery by Texas was within field-goal range and should have produced at least three points.

Barring a turnover or subsequent penalty after a fumble recovery — neither out of the question at all for this Longhorns offense right now — each missed opportunity to recover a fumble by Kentucky cost Texas between three and seven points worth up to 28 points in total.

In a close, low-scoring game that went to overtime, even one fumble recovery would have been enough to end the game in regulation.

As for technique, the Texas coaching staff should spend time emphasizing it in practice week to ensure that further opportunities don’t go lacking during the remainder of the season. Some balancing of the team’s poor fumble recovery luck wouldn’t hurt things, either.