Patriots win sloppy affair. The weather fit (or perhaps caused) the style of play Sunday in Foxborough: frigid, wet and disruptive. New England and Houston committed a combined eight turnovers, defining a day in which neither team seemed capable of maintaining possession for very long. Drake Maye was responsible for all three of the Patriots’ giveaways, limiting their ability to capitalize on the five takeaways recorded by their defense. But by the end of the game, however, it was clear which team was more complete: Mike Vrabel’s Patriots. This is a team that has thrived off the renewed energy inside Gillette Stadium, flocks to the football defensively with a sense of aggression and determination that fits their coach, and proudly rallies around its NFL MVP candidate under center. Like every team remaining in these playoffs, the Patriots have their own flaws but have overcome them in resounding fashion through two playoff games by turning up the intensity defensively and riding the wave of excitement at home. They’re now one game from returning to the Super Bowl — Sunday’s AFC Championship Game at the Bo Nix-less Denver Broncos — a reality that seemed absurd just one year ago.C.J. Stroud melts down. Houston’s win over Pittsburgh on Wild Card Weekend featured an incredible defensive performance and a highly concerning showing from the Texans’ franchise quarterback. A week later, those worries proved to be legitimate. C.J. Stroud appeared just as skittish in the pocket as he did in Pittsburgh, struggled with accuracy, continued to refuse to give up on doomed plays and gave away possession, and never looked anything like the quarterback who’d taken the NFL by storm as a rookie two seasons ago. Unlike in their win last week in Pittsburgh, Stroud also failed to produce big completions with downfield precision, traditionally his greatest strength, and was reduced to a checkdown-reliant passer who never seriously threatened New England’s safeties. His accuracy was an issue all afternoon, as were many of the decisions he made under fire, leading to his four interceptions. Even his most important throw of the day — a 10-yard touchdown pass to Christian Kirk — saw Stroud put the ball on the wrong shoulder, requiring Kirk to adjust and make a contested grab. Stroud made a similar error later that led to Carlton Davis’ second interception, which followed the veteran’s earlier takeaway that was only made possible by Stroud missing his intended target by a significant margin. It was a nightmarish game that prompted many to wonder whether Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans might bench Stroud for backup Davis Mills at halftime and caps a two-week stretch of mediocrity that will inspire plenty of debate regarding the former No. 2 overall pick’s future in Houston in the offseason.Drake Maye delivers in key spots. An ugly weather day never bodes well for a passer’s chances of success, especially in the playoffs, and that was largely true for Maye on Sunday. What’s important in these settings, however, is how a quarterback maximizes the chances he’s given, and Maye did plenty of that. It began with a courageous fourth-down conversion attempt early in the first quarter, in which Maye calmly received the snap and fired a dart just beyond the palm of Texans safety Calen Bullock to Demario Douglas for a 28-yard touchdown, and continued with Maye’s consecutive tight-window bullets to Kayshon Boutte and Stefon Diggs for a gain of 18 and a 7-yard touchdown completion. Maye made his share of mistakes, sure, including three strip-sack fumbles (one was recovered by Houston) and another fumble lost on a QB keeper. But Maye managed to strike frequently enough to put the Patriots in a comfortable position in the fourth quarter, capping a triumphant day with a strike to Boutte, who made a spectacular one-handed grab for the game’s decisive touchdown. Sunday’s showing marked two straight outings in which Maye didn’t carry the Patriots to victory by launching an aerial assault on an opponent, but did exactly what was needed to help the Patriots prevail in two straight defensive contests.Houston’s defense meets unfair ending. It must be plainly stated that the Texans owned a Super Bowl caliber defense, a unit capable of finishing among the likes of the 2000 Ravens, 2002 Buccaneers, 2013 Seahawks, 2015 Broncos, etc. in this century’s football history. They were that good, helping Houston bury Pittsburgh with two defensive touchdowns and doing everything possible to keep the Texans in a game that should have been out of hand by halftime on Sunday. Their efforts were wasted by an offense that never truly found a consistent rhythm in 2025 and was both outrageously ineffective and also a self-sabotaging operation on Sunday. It was telling that when trailing by 12 with 4:03 left to play, Ryans opted to punt because he essentially believed his defense had a better chance of forcing a turnover (and potentially scoring) than his offense did of moving the ball into scoring position. The fact nobody disagreed with this logic in the moment underscores how good this defense was, and how woefully inept the Texans’ offense proved itself to be. Houston’s defense deserved a better fate.New England advances in new fashion. These are not your uncle’s Patriots. In previous decades, Bill Belichick’s squads won Super Bowls on the back of a stifling defense and a good enough offense, then morphed into an offensive machine before striking a bit of a balance in their second era of dominance in the 2010s. Consider these Patriots a green, but rapidly maturing group that is still establishing their identity. They have one true star leader wearing No. 10 (Maye), a group of ascending youngsters (i.e., Boutte, TreVeyon Henderson, Christian Gonzalez), a collection of talented and hungry veterans (i.e., Davis, Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry) and a fearless coach with experience gained both in uniform and on the sideline whose own gritty nature saw him bloodied in celebration a week ago and gleefully drenched by rain/snow mix Sunday. Perhaps they’re the perfect blend of ingredients that could produce a surprisingly delicious and nourishing stew; on the other hand, they might just be a team that is peaking at the right time with a coach perfectly suited to lead them through an unfamiliar AFC landscape to new heights. Regardless, they’re winning in unconventional fashion, they’re fun to watch, they’re a machine fueled by passion and are positioned for one more game with a chance to return to the Super Bowl since the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era. It’s a place Patriots fans never would have expected to find themselves in even a year ago when they went 3-14 and fired Jerod Mayo after one season. And while it’s familiar to the fanbase that enjoyed two decades of incredible success under Belichick, it might feel like a whole new experience when considering how they’ve reached this point, making the Patriots one of the most fascinating stories of the 2025 season that will continue for at least one more week.
Next Gen Stats insight from Texans-Patriots (via NFL Pro): C.J. Stroud completed -15.9% of his passes below expected, his second-lowest mark in a game of his career. Stroud is now 0-6 in games when he has a CPOE worse than -7.0%. Stroud threw into a tight window on a career-high 29.8% of his attempts, completing just two of those 14 passes. Out of his four interceptions, three were on play action, three were on dropbacks over 2.5 seconds and three were under 10 air yards (all targeting Xavier Hutchinson).
NFL Research: Mike Vrabel is the fourth person all-time to lead the same franchise to a conference championship game as both a player and a head coach.