Texans hoping for sweater weather may be in for a rude awakening. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) official winter outlook, most of Texas-from Houston to the Hill Country-can expect a warmer and drier winter than normal, spelling trouble for the state’s deepening drought.
While the forecast finally dropped this week, one major hitch remains: the federal budget impasse in Congress has delayed NOAA’s annual winter briefing, a go-to event for meteorologists, energy producers, and emergency planners.
La Niña returns: The winter grinch
The biggest villain of the season? La Niña-the oceanic pattern that cools Pacific waters and shoves cold air and storms northward, leaving Texas high, dry, and thirsty. That means fewer cold fronts, more heat, and next to no rain for much of the Lone Star State.
During La Niña years, the jet stream-that invisible river of wind that drives our weather-typically arches north, diverting storm systems away from Texas. The result: blue skies, brittle soil, and rising fire danger.
Drought deepens as burn bans spread
The news couldn’t come at a worse time. The U.S. Drought Monitor reported this week that “severe to exceptional” drought now blankets nearly 30 percent of Texas, up from 26 percent just days ago.
More than 150 counties-including Harris, Montgomery, Fort Bend, and Liberty-are under active burn bans.
And with Houston rainfall lagging more than 20 inches below normal for the year, it’s no surprise. The city has recorded just 30 inches of rain since January 1, compared with a typical 52 inches by now.
Don’t let the warm forecast fool you
Despite the warm, dry outlook, forecasters warn that Texas cold snaps aren’t off the table. The 2020–21 La Niña winter famously brought the devastating February 2021 freeze, proving that even a mild season can turn deadly overnight.
So while NOAA’s models predict a milder winter overall, Texans should keep the coats handy-and maybe a flashlight, too.
Bottom line: Texas faces a double threat
While NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center continues to publish automated data, its annual Winter Partners Webinar-a key coordination event-has been postponed until November 6 because of the ongoing government shutdown.
With record drought, warming temperatures, and federal weather briefings stuck in limbo, the Lone Star State enters winter on edge.
The Climate Prediction Center gives high confidence that drought will worsen from southern Texas to California, tightening water supplies and testing power grids once again.
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This article originally published at Here’s how NOAA says Texas weather will change this winter.