AUSTIN, Texas — A local conservation district is close to making a historic declaration following years of drought conditions.

The Barton Springs-Edwards Aquifer Conservation District issued a news release on Wednesday warning residents that if drought conditions persist, the district will be forced to issue its first ever Stage 4 Emergency Response Period declaration, the highest level possible. 

Back in October 2025, the district declared Stage 3 Exceptional Drought conditions for only the second time in its 39-year history. 

Officials said that the area has been in a continuous drought for 43 consecutive months. 

“While the region received some rainfall this week, drought conditions persist,” the release said. “The winter precipitation did not produce sustained flow in creeks and streams within aquifer recharge zones—an essential process for replenishing groundwater supplies.”

Drought conditions are determined using the 10-day average of groundwater levels at the Lovelady Monitor Well in South Austin and flow rates at Barton Springs. 

As of Jan. 28, water levels at the Lovelady Well are at 454.3 feet mean sea level. That’s coming dangerously close to the 453.4 feet mean sea level threshold needed to fall into Stage 4. The Barton Springs flow is approximately 12.4 cubic feet per second, a little over 2 cubic feet per second above the Stage 4 level. 

If the water levels continue to decline at the same rate, Stage 4 drought conditions could be declared as early as March. 

According to the release, other wells in the Edwards and Trinity aquifers are seeing similar declines throughout the Hill Country. 

The Barton Springs-Edwards Aquifer Conservation District manages the groundwater resources for the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer. Approximately 100,000 people in south Travis County and eastern Hays County rely on groundwater from the district’s territory, including the cities of Buda and Kyle.  

If a Stage 4 drought were declared, the district would have to increase pumping reductions for the public.  

“Thousands and thousands of households between Austin and San Marcos depend on well water for their daily needs,” said Charlie Flatten, general manager of the district. “It is critical that we cut back on outdoor use and conserve for indoor use only.”

Editor’s Note: An image of the Colorado River just below Lady Bird Lake in Austin was misidentified. That image has been changed. (Jan. 29, 2026)