The Groundhog Day forecast for South Texas is an early spring thanks to passing clouds on Feb. 2


Author: Hope Boland, Kristin Walla, Carly Smith


Published: 5:58 PM CST February 2, 2026


Updated: 5:58 PM CST February 2, 2026




CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — Happy Groundhog Day! While Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning, indicating six more weeks of winter, Petronila Pete had something different to say. When Petronila Pete walked outside today, he was met with mostly cloudy skies. He did not see his shadow and therefore predicts an early spring for the Coastal Bend.

Turns out Groundhog Day is when Corpus Christi tends to see the last freeze. Taking a look at the data that dates back to 1887, there have been 12 years without a freeze, and the latest freeze ever recorded was on March 31, 1987.


When we just look back at the last 10 years, it’s a 50/50 chance for a freeze following Groundhog Day. Those five years with a late freeze were recorded over the last six years. In 2019, no freeze was recorded all winter. The freeze of 2021 produced the most nights at or below 32 degrees for Feb. 13-20. 


This year, the Climate Prediction Center gives Texas a 33% chance of recording an above-normal February. That doesn’t mean we can’t have a freeze, but it does lower the odds. 


The average high in February starts at 70 and increases to 74 by the end of the month. The average low starts at 49 and increases to 55 degrees. See the latest 7-Day forecast here: https://www.kiiitv.com/article/weather/forecast/corpus-christi-south-texas-weather-forecast/503-b11f8b3b-9e41-47f7-8b47-bb47572338c1