The Houston Astros have drafted low for years, and lost some high picks along the way, and, of course, used their system heavily to remain contenders, including this winter’s trade of two of their top 10 prospects (Jacob Melton and Anderson Brito) for pitcher Mike Burrows. What remains is very light on ceiling or even potential impact, although they are still one of the better teams at developing lower-round talent.
(Note: Tools are graded on a 20-80 scouting scale; ages as of July 1, 2026.)
1. Brice Matthews, 2B/3BHeight: 5-11 | Weight: 190 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 24
Matthews came up to the big leagues a little earlier than planned last year and looked it, struggling to pick up spin and making a lot of weak contact on pitches in the zone. A shortstop when they drafted him, Matthews has made himself a much better defender at second base now, to the point that he might have a floor as a low-end regular because he has plus power, above-average speed, and that defensive value.
I don’t think he’s ever going to be a high-contact or high-OBP guy, given his propensity to whiff on almost all pitch types, which keeps him from projecting as an above-average or better regular (and kept him off my top 100). The Astros have toyed with trying him in center field, and that might be his best path to greater value.
2. Ethan Pecko, RHPHeight: 6-2 | Weight: 195 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 23
If Pecko hadn’t missed two months last season with a forearm strain, he’d be the Astros’ top prospect with a mid-rotation projection and maybe a few big-league starts under his belt. He comes from a lower slot with excellent extension, getting some late hop to his 93-95 mph fastball. His five-pitch mix includes a 55 cutter and good spin rates on all three breaking pitches. He throws a ton of strikes and works to all quadrants of the zone. Nothing he throws is truly plus, and he does give up more hard contact than a No. 2 starter would. He has improved a ton already since the Astros took him in the sixth round in 2023 out of Towson, so I don’t want to rule out further gains, but he’s 23 and I assume this is mostly what he’ll be — and that’s a major-league starter this year.
3. Xavier Neyens, SSHeight: 6-4 | Weight: 210 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 19
The Astros’ first-round pick last year, Neyens has huge power and came into the draft with swing-and-miss concerns, but he approached the Astros immediately to ask for help making adjustments so he can make more contact in the zone. He has a great swing for power and swings very hard, with plenty of loft in his finish to get the ball in the air. Houston drafted him as a shortstop, but he’s going to move to third base sooner rather than later. The trend is to put your first-rounder in Low A right away the following spring, but I hope the Astros take it slower with Neyens, even if that means letting him mash in the Arizona Complex League for a month so he can work on in-zone contact and become a well-rounded hitter. The power is always going to be there, and it might be 30 homers if he develops even an average hit tool.
Ethan Frey primarily DH’d for LSU last season but played some center field in his pro debut. (Jay Biggerstaff / Getty Images)
4. Ethan Frey, OFHeight: 6-6 | Weight: 225 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 22
Frey came out of nowhere to hit .331/.420/.641 for LSU last spring, mostly as a DH, and the Astros took him in the third round. They sent him out to Low A and put him in … yes, center field, that appears to be correct, and he showed at least enough defensive skill to say he can be a right fielder. He makes a ton of contact and has plus power, with outstanding bat speed and a good idea of the strike zone. Given what he showed in the field, he likely would go at least a round higher if we re-did the 2025 draft today.
5. Joseph Sullivan, OFHeight: 5-11 | Weight: 198 | Bats: L | Throws: L | Age: 24
The Astros’ seventh-round pick in 2024, Sullivan reached Double A in his first full season in the minors, drawing 88 walks between two levels while flashing above-average power and plus speed. He’s a plus defender in center and has shown top-end exit velocities north of 110 mph, hinting at more power to come. He has really never been much of a hitter for average — .230 in hitter-friendly Asheville last year, .191 in a month in Double A, even .266 in his draft year for South Alabama with the tin bat in his hands. Part of his issue is that he doesn’t pick up spin well. He’s also too patient, swinging just 36 percent of the time last year — less often than Juan Soto. There’s a good extra outfielder floor here with the defense and power, but I hold out hope that he’ll get to enough contact to be a regular.
6. Walker Janek, CHeight: 6-0 | Weight: 190 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 23
Janek is an excellent defensive catcher with soft hands and a plus arm, but his offensive output in hitter-friendly Asheville was underwhelming for a first-round pick: .263/.333/.433, with a little more power at home. His swing decisions and plate discipline aren’t great, which carried over into the Arizona Fall League, where he struck out 22 times against four walks in 59 PA. (Bear in mind, most catchers are tired in the AFL anyway, and Janek seemed even more so.) I’m leaning toward “quality backup” here, given the defense and the flashes of power, although he could gain some durability and improve the approach to get to everyday status.
7. AJ Blubaugh, RHPHeight: 6-2 | Weight: 190 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 25
Blubaugh debuted last year and was excellent in a long relief role, finishing the year with 19 scoreless innings out of the bullpen in stints as long as four frames. It’s 92-95 with above-average extension, and he stays out of the heart of the zone with his changeup and sweeper, getting a lot of lateral fade on the change that made it his most effective pitch. He’s always walked too many guys to be a starter, and his stuff ticked up enough in the pen that I think that’s his ideal role. Even if he can start, he’ll be more valuable to the Astros soaking up innings in relief.
8. Bryce Mayer, RHPHeight: 6-3 | Weight: 210 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 24
Drafted in the 16th (!) round in 2024 out of the University of Missouri, Mayer started in Low A and shot up two levels last year, finishing with a high ERA but good peripherals in Double A. He’s 92-93 with two quality breaking balls, including a slider that looks a lot like Trey Yesavage’s with its reverse break. His changeup might be a 40, and he barely uses it, leading to a concerning platoon split — he actually dominated right-handed batters, striking out 63 and walking four. He has a very short arm action that also doesn’t seem to have a lot of effort. There’s zero reason he couldn’t throw some kind of changeup to get lefties out enough to keep him as a starter. He has mid-rotation upside if he does.
9. Alonzo Tredwell, RHPHeight: 6-8 | Weight: 245 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 24
Tredwell is coming off his first truly healthy year since at least 2022, throwing 100 innings in 2025 across three levels. He finished the year by striking out 40 in 22 innings in Double A, so perhaps the Astros’ 2023 second-round pick is breaking out. He is 6-foot-8 and appears to be about 80 percent legs, coming from a very high three-quarters slot that makes his curveball look like it came from outer space and had its path bent by the sun’s gravity. He’s 92-93 now on the four-seamer, pitching more up with it toward the top of the zone, and he has an above-average slider. He’s very north-south and uses the breaking pitches to get lefties out rather than a changeup, which has worked so far with no platoon split last year. He had Tommy John surgery as an amateur, a back injury in his draft year and a shoulder issue that ended his 2024 season, so “if he stays healthy” is doing a lot of work here, but if he stays healthy, he’s at least a fourth starter.
10. Jackson Nezuh, RHPHeight: 6-1 | Weight: 190 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 24
Nezuh works in the low 90s with a riding fastball that has touched 96, and he’s got a 55 to 60 splitter or split-change that allows him to get lefties out and was easily his best swing-and-miss pitch last year. His slider grades out well on paper, but hitters didn’t whiff on it much, and I think their grades are the ones that matter most. It does have a lot of downward break, but it’s not sharp and hitters seem to see it out of his high three-quarters slot. That said, it’s enough of a third pitch that he can start, especially with at least solid-average control. He did miss two months with an elbow strain, returning to pitch for the final two months.
Miguel Ullola has good stuff, but his command is holding him back as a starter. (Trevor Gallagher / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
11. Miguel Ullola, RHPHeight: 6-1 | Weight: 205 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 24
Ullola walked 13.7 percent of batters he faced in Double A in 2024, moved up to Triple A and walked 15.9 percent. I don’t mean to reduce a pitcher to a single number like that, but I can’t reconcile that with anything else he does to come up with “starter.” He sits 92-94, topping out at 97 last year, with good ride on the pitch, getting nearly 19 inches of vertical movement, with a bunch of 50s and 55s. Maybe the velocity plays up in relief and he can help the big-league team sooner in that role.
12. Lucas Spence, OFHeight: 6-1 | Weight: 195 | Bats: L | Throws: L | Age: 23
Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2024 out of SIU-Edwardsville and the Northwoods League, Spence is probably the best defensive center fielder in the system and hits right-handed pitching well enough to get to the majors as is in a fourth outfielder/platoon role. He hit .185/.312/.311 off lefties last year in 141 PA, even with the advantages of starting in Low A and playing at hitter-friendly Asheville, and that’s the one thing preventing him from being a regular. He’s a plus runner with enough power to keep the average up against righties. With a right-handed-hitting platoon mate, he’d be the strong side of a great two-headed center-field monster.
13. Kevin Alvarez, OFHeight: 6-4 | Weight: 184 | Bats: L | Throws: L | Age: 18
Signed last January for $2 million, Alvarez has gap power already with strong bat-to-ball skills for his age, showing a swing path that should lead to a high line-drive rate as he matures. The Cuban outfielder was one of the toughest hitters in the Dominican Summer League to strike out, coming in just under 10 percent with a limited chase rate. He’s a center fielder now who may move to a corner, as he’s probably going to put on 40 pounds and outgrow the middle of the field. It’s a long way to the upside scenario here as he just turned 18 and hasn’t played in the U.S. yet. I do like the potential for a 55 or better hit tool and the projection on the frame for future plus power.
14. Ryan Forcucci, RHPHeight: 6-3 | Weight: 205 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 23
Forcucci was a metrics darling as a college pitcher at UC San Diego but blew out his elbow before the 2024 draft. The Astros took him in the third round that year and were conservative with his rehab from Tommy John, choosing not to rush him into games at the end of 2025, but he should be ready to go this spring. Before the injury, he was up to 97 with plus life and featured a high-spin slider that projected as plus, getting good extension from a lower arm slot.
15. Cole Hertzler, RHPHeight: 6-4 | Weight: 235 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 23
Hertzler was the Astros’ fifth-round pick in 2024, then missed most of 2025 with a forearm strain, returning at the very end of the season for one proof-of-life appearance. He’s still got a four-pitch mix, coming from a high three-quarters slot, with good depth to the slider and deception on the changeup (which had a hilarious 67 percent whiff rate in 16 innings last year). I thought he was a back-end starter a year ago, and he could still be that if he’s back to full health.
16. Alimber Santa, RHPHeight: 5-10 | Weight: 228 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 23
Santa delivers sliders, more than fastballs, as it turns out, and if he could find the correct chimney every now and then, he’d be a competent big-league reliever. He walked more than a batter an inning in his 16 innings in Triple A (small sample size caveats apply) after showing unusually good control (for him) in Double A for most of the year. He might throw enough strikes to pitch in the majors now, but it’s control over command if it’s anything, and he’s probably going to need to change the mix a little, even if it’s just using the cutter more, to keep lefties off base and get himself into leveraged work.
17. Anthony Huezo, OFHeight: 6-2 | Weight: 185 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 20
Signed in the 12th round in 2023 out of a Southern California high school, Huezo went to the Arizona Complex League that summer … and the next summer … and again last summer, where he had a real breakout season that continued in Low A and even got him two innings as a defensive replacement in Triple A in June. There’s still too much swing and miss here, but to his credit, he got quite a bit stronger and his contact quality went through the roof. He might stick in center, and it’s plus raw power. I don’t know if he’ll hit enough to get to it, but at least now he has a shot.
18. Nick Monistere, IF/OFHeight: 6-0 | Weight: 192 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 22
The Astros’ fourth-round pick last year, Monistere posted very high hard-contact rates at Southern Miss, although it’s a power-over-hit approach. He moved from the outfield to second base last spring, and the Astros moved him all over the field in his brief pro debut, even giving him time at shortstop, which is probably a stretch.
19. Jase Mitchell, CHeight: 6-3 | Weight: 205 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 19
Drafted out of a Delaware high school, Mitchell is a left-handed hitting catcher with good rhythm at the plate and above-average power, getting good loft in his swing to put the ball in the air. He’s a solid athlete who throws well and should be able to stick behind the plate, while his hit tool lags behind the rest of his game. He probably won’t move quickly, but he does offer everyday upside in the best-case scenario.
20. Will Bush, C/1BHeight: 6-4 | Weight: 235 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 22
Bush is a very big lefty-hitting catcher with plenty of power, reaching 112.3 mph in the AFL last year, but he has a fringy arm and too much swing and miss to profile as a regular. His best shot is as a backup catcher and first baseman who can bring some left-handed thump off the bench.
2026 impact
Barring injury, probably nobody on the position-player side. Blubaugh should be on the roster from Opening Day in a long relief role.
The fallen
Pedro León signed for $4 million in 2020 as a free agent from Cuba, but could never get his incredible tools to translate into enough contact or above-average defense. The Astros gave him 400 games in Triple A, but he never improved, hitting .241/.312/.422 last year in his third trip through the level. They lost him on waivers to the Phillies in November.
Sleeper
Frey might be one of the steals of the 2025 draft. He also might hit his way to the majors before I even get to put him on the top 100, given how aggressive the Astros can be with college guys.