February often can be an unpredictable month in Central Texas, capable of delivering every type of weather imaginable.
Since reliable record-keeping for Austin weather began in the late 1890s, the region has experienced February temperatures ranging from 99 degrees in 1996, to below zero degrees in 1899, along with heavy snowfalls, destructive tornadoes and large hail. February has repeatedly proven it can pack a year’s worth of weather into just 28 days.
So far this year, February has been relatively quiet. Temperatures have been warmer than normal, but nowhere near record levels. Highs this weekend are expected to range from 75 to 81 degrees, falling several degrees short of the records — 86 degrees set in 2017 for Saturday, and 87 degrees set just last year for Sunday.
The weather will be gorgeous Saturday for the opening of the Y-shaped, wishbone bridge that will connect the Ann and Roy Butler Hike and Bike Trail across Lady Bird Lake in East Austin. The bridge will complete the popular trail’s full 10-mile loop.
We’ll see plenty of sunshine and light east to southeast winds on Saturday. By Sunday, clouds will begin to stream in ahead of our next rainmaker early next week.
A well-established Pacific low pressure system near Southern California and Baja California will slowly track east this weekend across Mexico and into Texas on Monday. Clouds will increase first, followed by rain and thunderstorms from Monday night through early Wednesday morning.
Central Texas will see increasing cloudiness Saturday night, with southerly winds between 5 and 10 mph and temperatures falling to around 50 degrees by Sunday morning. A few breaks in the clouds are possible Sunday afternoon, but most of the day will remain mostly cloudy. High temperatures will climb into the mid-70s.
Monday morning will be cloudy and mild, with temperatures starting in the mid-50s, then warming into the upper 70s during the afternoon. Rain chances of 20% are expected to hold off until later Monday evening before increasing to 60% on Tuesday. Those rain chances drop again, back to 20%, on Wednesday as the storm system moves east.
This will be the first of several rain chances this month, with rainfall totals between 0.1 and 0.3 inch. Temperatures next week will remain warmer than normal, and another storm system looks possible about a week from now.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center has high confidence in a wetter weather pattern for the next six to 10 days and near-normal rainfall for the next eight to 14 days.