This year has picked up exactly where the past four years left off: with below average rainfall across South Texas. San Antonio has managed just 1.02 inches of rain so far in 2026, which is just 38% of the city’s normal rainfall through Feb. 12. In fact, no measurable rainfall has been recorded for the past 18 days in the Alamo City.
That dry streak has a good chance of ending by Saturday, as a strong weather system pushes into Texas from the Pacific Ocean. However, total rainfall in South Texas is not likely to be as widespread as in many other parts of the state. Here’s a look at when our best chances will be, along with how much rain to expect.
Friday’s forecast
Friday is expected to be mostly dry across the San Antonio area. The morning will start with mild temperatures in the low 60s under overcast skies. Patchy dense fog will also be possible, especially between 4 and 9 a.m.
With cloudy skies expected throughout the morning, temperatures will rise slowly, only reaching 70 degrees by around noon. Some sunshine will peek through the clouds by the afternoon, allowing temps to top out in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
A relatively pleasant evening is anticipated, although you’ll likely notice the increased humidity. Temperatures will hover in the 70s between 5 and 8 p.m., only falling into the 60s after 9 p.m.
Saturday rain timeline
Scattered thunderstorms will begin in West Texas late Friday, and they’ll move eastward during the overnight hours and into early Saturday morning. For San Antonio, the best chances of rain will be as follows:
Early morning (2-7 a.m.): Most of the heavy rainfall will stay north and west of San Antonio through the early morning, but a few isolated showers will be possible as moisture streams in from the Gulf of Mexico. Overall rain chances during this time are about 30%.
Late morning (7 a.m. to noon): Scattered showers and weak storms will become slightly more widespread across the region. Still, rain is not expected to be constant throughout the day. San Antonio rain chances will rise to around 40-50%.
Here is the potential future weather radar for Texas at noon Saturday, which shows a line of showers and storms moving toward the Interstate 35 corridor. (Pivotal Weather)
Afternoon (noon to 5 p.m.): A line of strong thunderstorms will move toward the Interstate 35 corridor, potentially affecting San Antonio during the early to mid-afternoon. Isolated severe weather, including hail and damaging winds, will be possible with this line of storms. However, most of the activity will stay below severe weather thresholds.
Rain chances will rise to 50-60% during this time, so some areas will not see any rain at all. Any heavy rain that falls will likely be brief, lasting for 30 minutes or less. Most areas in the San Antonio metro area will record less than a half-inch of rainfall, but isolated totals greater than an inch will be possible in the regions that see the stronger storms.
Evening (6 to 10 p.m.): Much of the moisture associated with this storm system is expected to push into East Texas, allowing skies to clear and temps to fall into the 60s across the San Antonio metro area.
Shown are the potential cumulative rainfall totals across South Texas through Saturday. Much of San Antonio will see less than a half-inch of rain. (Pivotal Weather)
A look at next week
Sunny conditions are expected on Sunday. Morning temps in the mid-50s will transition to afternoon temperatures in the mid- to upper 70s. Winds will be breezy, with some gusts expected at 20-25 mph.
Cool temperatures are expected Sunday night, as lows all into the upper 40s. Temps won’t stay cool, however, as Monday afternoon warmth once again rises, with temps in the upper 70s. By Tuesday and Wednesday, unseasonably warm weather is anticipated, as highs reach the lower to mid-80s.
This article originally published at When will San Antonio see its best rain chances this weekend? Here’s a timeline..