With new congressional boundaries throughout the Lone Star State, who will win the
Democratic primary contests for Houston-area Congressional Districts 18, 29 and 9?
The lines for all three of these congressional districts were modified considerably
during the mid-decade congressional redistricting process carried out by the Texas
Legislature during the summer of 2025. Will newly elected U.S. Rep. Christian Menefee
(TX-18) overcome the challenge of longtime incumbent U.S. Rep. Al Green (TX-9) to
become the Democratic nominee for Congressional District 18? Will U.S. Rep. Sylvia
Garcia (TX-29) defeat former state Rep. Jarvis Johnson in the battle to be on the
November ballot? Meanwhile, the Democratic nomination for Congressional District 9
is up for grabs, with 61% of its likely voters unsure of their primary vote intention.
And are the candidates for these three congressional districts viewed favorably or
unfavorably?

To address these questions, the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of
Houston conducted three separate representative surveys of likely March 2026 Democratic
primary voters in Texas’s Congressional District 9, Congressional District 18 and
Congressional District 29 to assess their preferences and opinions about candidates
competing in these Democratic primary contests. A person’s likelihood of voting in
the March Democratic primary was determined by a combination of their prospective
intention to participate and their record of past primary participation in 2024 and
in 2022. 

Texas Congressional District 18 

In the Democratic primary for Texas Congressional District 18, Christian Menefee leads
Al Green by 24 percentage points among likely voters, 52% to 28%, followed by Amanda
Edwards (9%) and Gretchen Brown (1%), with 10% undecided.

Menefee (80%) and Green (79%) are viewed favorably by four-fifths of the Congressional
District 18 likely Democratic primary voters, with only 14% and 7% not knowing enough
about them to have an opinion, respectively.

Texas Congressional District 29 

In the Texas Congressional District 29 Democratic primary election, Congresswoman
Sylvia Garcia leads Jarvis Johnson by 19 percentage points among likely voters, 46%
to 27%, with Robert Slater in third with 2%. 25% are undecided.

More than two-thirds (70%) of likely Congressional District 29 primary voters have
a favorable opinion of Garcia, while 23% don’t know enough about her to have an opinion.
Close to one-half (45%) have a favorable opinion of Johnson, while 41% don’t know
enough about him to have an opinion.

Texas Congressional District 9 

In the race for the Democratic nomination for Texas Congressional District 9, 61%
of likely voters are unsure whom they will vote for, with Leticia Gutierrez in first
place with 24%, followed by Terry Virts (5%), Earnest Clayton (5%), Todd Ivey (2%),
Marty Rocha (2%) and Peter Filler (1%).

Nearly two-thirds (65%) of likely Congressional District 9 Democratic primary voters
don’t know enough about Gutierrez to have an opinion of her, with between 80% and
88% not knowing enough about the other five candidates to have an opinion of them.

Read the report to learn more about where Texans stand on the 2026 Democratic primary candidates
for Congressional Districts 18, 29 and 9, including differences of opinion when considering
gender, age, race/ethnicity, education and partisanship.

Media Release February 13, 2026

 

Research Team 

Co-Investigator & Co-Author Renée Cross, Senior Executive Director & Researcher

Co-Investigator % Co-Author Mark P. Jones, Senior Research Fellow, Hobby School of
Public Affairs; James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy’s Fellow in Political
Science, Rice University

Maria P. Perez Argüelles, Research Assistant Professor

Savannah Sipole, Research Associate

Communications Team

Diana Benitez, Program Director, Web & Graphic Design

Falon Boehm, Multimedia Specialist 

Victoria Cordova, Executive Director of Communications

Jeannie Kever, Communications Consultant

Celeste Zamora, Communications Manager

 

Election Reports

Previous reports on statewide, county and city elections are found here.