Griffin Wong gives his college basketball analysis and pick for Texas vs. Missouri on Saturday, Feb. 14.

Just seven games of regular-season play remains in the SEC, and for a bubble team like Texas (15-9, 6-5 SEC) — which recently featured as one of the “last four in” in ESPN’s latest Bracketology — they could be essential. The Longshorns’ opponent tonight, Missouri (17-7, 7-4 SEC) is slightly above bubble status for now but can’t afford too much slippage entering the final weeks of the season.

The game will begin at 8:30 p.m. ET, with the Tigers serving as hosts.

This game is pretty much as close to a toss-up as it gets, with Missouri -118 on the Moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook and Texas -102. The point total is set to 153.5. Below, I’ll break down this critical conference matchup and offer a prediction.

Texas vs. Missouri (8:30 p.m. ET)

The Longhorns have gotten hot at the right time, winning each of their last three matchups to climb back above .500 in SEC play. Despite a mediocre record overall, they’ve actually had some pretty impressive wins, beating No. 13 Alabama, No. 10 Vanderbilt, and No. 21 Georgia, and narrow losses on the road to Auburn and Kentucky aren’t exactly massive disappointments. Texas has been pretty unstoppable offensively, posting KenPom’s eighth-ranked offensive rating, but it ranks outside the top 100 in defensive rating, and because of its weak non-conference schedule, it has fallen just outside KenPom’s top 25.

But the Longhorns have plenty of individual talent, led by do-it-all guard Dailyn Swain. Swain, a six-foot-eight junior and projected second-round pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, leads the team in points, rebounds, assists, and steals per game, though his three-point shot hasn’t been particularly efficient. He’s joined by Matas Vokietaitis, Tramon Mark, and Jordan Pope, all of whom are averaging at least 12.5 points per game. The Longhorns all have one of the country’s better three-point snipers in Camden Heide, who’s made 52.6% of his treys (albeit on low volume).

As for the Tigers, they’ve also won three games in a row, but they lost to both Alabama and Georgia. They only have one victory over a ranked opponent, when they beat No. 22 Florida by two points on January 3, and a 91-48 loss to No. 20 Illinois on December 22 only reinforces their volatility against top teams. Missouri also had an even easier non-conference schedule than Texas did. KenPom isn’t too kind to the Tigers on either side of the ball — they rank just 51st in offensive rating and 88th in defensive rating. Their 29th-ranked luck score suggests that they haven’t been nearly as good as their record would suggest.

Missouri is led by Mark Mitchell, a senior guard who can both score and rebound, averaging 17.2 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. The issue is that Mitchell is a non-threat as a shooter, converting just 27.8% of his tries from beyond the arc. The Tigers do have a couple of high-volume guards who can knock down their shots — both Jayden Stone and Jacob Crews have made more than 39% of their threes — but they struggle to facilitate, as no player averages more than 3.5 assists per game. Missouri also doesn’t have any player who’s made more than 83.0% of his free-throws, which could be an issue in a late-game situation.

The Longhorns should have an advantage on the boards — they rank 13th in rebound margin, and the Tigers rank just 47th — which would require Missouri’s shooters to be able to beat them. That’s not something that’s happened this season — the Tigers have made their threes at a clip just 0.2 percentage points higher than Texas has. Plus, while the Longhorns do have a problem with fouling, Missouri’s inability to shoot free throws will come back to harm it.

College Basketball Pick: Texas Moneyline (-102)