Our first real rain chance of the month arrives Saturday as a potent storm system sweeps across the Lone Star State. The atmospheric setup will have enough instability to spark several rounds of rain and thunderstorms throughout the day — starting mainly north of Austin in the morning before expanding southward into more of Central Texas by the afternoon.

A few spotty showers are possible during the morning under an overcast sky, with breezy south winds and temperatures in the lower to mid-60s. These showers will be light, producing less than a tenth of an inch of rain.

If you have plans to take your sweetie or family to a Valentine’s Day brunch or on a fun hike, don’t cancel — rain coverage will be widely scattered, around 20% to 30%.

Storm chances will begin to ramp up as the rain-making, upper-atmospheric low pressure system moves into Texas. Expect around a 50% chance of rain during this time, and if you have outdoor plans, be sure to watch the sky and keep an eye on any weather updates. We could see thunderstorms begin to pop up across the region. Temperatures will have warmed into the lower to mid-70s, with gusty south winds between 20 and 25 mph.

The cold front tied to the upper-level low pressure will create enough lift, or atmospheric instability, to trigger a line of strong to severe storms. Some storms could produce damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning, and brief but heavy rainfall.

The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Central Texas under a level 1 out of 5 risk of severe weather, with scattered severe thunderstorms expected throughout the area.

The cold front will move into Southeast Texas by 9 p.m. and with rain ending and skies clearing across Central Texas. Winds will turn out of the west and northwest behind the front. Meanwhile, temperatures will fall into the 50s shortly after midnight and into the lower to mid-50s by Sunday morning.

If you’re looking to write messages for some last-minute Valentine’s cards, try these timely sayings:

Beautiful weather will return on Sunday as winds remain breezy with some gusts topping 25 mph. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than normal with highs ranging from 68 degrees to 75 degrees across the Austin area. 

Calm weather will return next week as a ridge of high pressure builds back over Texas. This means that temperatures will remain well above average with highs in the 80s. Also, concerns about fast-spreading wildfires could increase next week if winds become gusty.