Bryan Armetta breaks down his 2026 MLB futures picks for the American League East division winner on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Don’t look now, but baseball is almost upon us. As pitchers and catchers begin reporting to spring training complexes across the country, the time is now to place some preseason futures bets. What better group to get us started than the American League East?
At this point, there’s not much debate when it comes to the best division in baseball. The reigning AL champion Blue Jays come into this season with their eyes set on a deep October run. Ditto for the Yankees, who kept their offense in tact while welcoming back former Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole. Elsewhere, the Red Sox will hope to improve on last season’s Wild Card round exit, while the Orioles acquired slugger Pete Alonso. As always, the scrappy Rays remain a dark horse.
So, which of these rivals has the edge going into 2026? I’ll break down all five squads before sharing my favorite betting pick to win the AL East on DraftKings Sportsbook.
AL East betting preview and prediction
To the surprise of many, their own fans included, the Yankees have the lowest division winner odds. Granted, this shouldn’t come as a massive shock. After all, New York rosters Aaron Judge, the best right-handed hitter since Barry Bonds. Last season, the MVP hammered 53 home runs and 114 RBIs while slashing .331/.457/.688 at the plate. Assuming he posts a similar stat line, the Pinstripes will remain an upper-echelon club.
It helps that #99 has some talented company. Hitters such as Ben Rice (133 wRC+), Jazz Chisholm (126 wRC+), and recently re-signed Cody Bellinger (124 wRC+) formed the nucleus of baseball’s highest-scoring offense in 2025. Improved health from Giancarlo Stanton (always a question mark) and slightly better production from Anthony Volpe at shortstop could help this unit improve. A full season of third baseman Ryan McMahon would go a long way defensively.
On the mound is where things get somewhat tricky for the Yankees. There’s certainly star power here, with veterans Max Fried, Carlos Rodon and Cole on the roster. However, the latter two aren’t expected to be healthy in time for Opening Day. The fate of this rotation will come down to youngsters Cam Schlittler and Luis Gil. The former was a postseason standout last October, while the latter was the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year. Offseason acquisition Ryan Weathers, an electric but oft-injured arm, should play a major role as well. If two of those three names live up to the hype, New York will be in a good spot.
Despite a tragic Game Seven defeat to the Dodgers, it was a magical season in Toronto. The Blue Jays defied all expectations, winning 94 games and dominating the American League bracket during the postseason. Now, Canada’s team enters the year with massive expectations. Franchise mainstay Bo Bichette is a member of the Mets, which hurts the offense. Still, the front office is hopeful that Japanese import Kazuma Okamoto can provide decent hitting and improved defense for the infield.
Even without Bichette, this offense should remain lethal. That’s due in large part to slugger Vladimir Guerrero (137 wRC+), whom many consider the sport’s best first baseman. Vladdy Jr. was a monster in October, along with some other lesser-known Jays. Ultimately, this season may come down to sustained production from 2025 breakouts such as Addison Barger and Ernie Clement.
Even if some hitters regress, Toronto could make up for that with improved pitching. This group had a 4.19 ERA as a unit last season, 19th-best in baseball. Now, they’ll welcome in prized free agent acquisition Dylan Cease. The former Padres ace, arguably the top arm on the market, is a major get. His career 10.9 K/9 rate ranks seventh among all active pitchers. That level of upside pairs nicely with veterans Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber. Fans will also be treated to a full season of rookie sensation Trey Yesavage. In the bullpen, the Jays upgraded with fellow signing Taylor Rogers. The right-handed reliever owns a stellar 2.71 ERA over the past four seasons.
In many ways, Boston and Toronto had similar offseasons. Instead of improving at the plate, the Red Sox opted to turn their pitching into a major strength. Granted, that was already the case with superstar Garrett Crochet, perhaps the best pitcher on Earth not named Skenes or Skubal. Last season, the ace posted a 2.59 ERA and league-leading 255 strikeouts over 205.1 innings of work. He’s now joined by former Phillies hurler Ranger Suarez. The All-Star, a ground ball specialist, is an ideal pairing with the hard-throwing Crochet. Beantown also pulled off a trade for veteran Sonny Gray, forming an experienced trio atop its rotation.
Few teams wield a bullpen with this level of late inning talent. Aroldis Chapman enjoyed a career-best 2025 campaign at the age of 37. The potential Hall of Famer posted a minuscule 1.17 ERA along with 12.5 K/9 and 32 saves. He’s joined by elite setup man Garrett Whitlock and reliable righty Greg Weissert. Snagging a quality southpaw should be a priority for Boston’s front office at some point this season.
With that being said, hitting remains a major concern. Alex Bregman departed for the Cubs, leaving the Sox with a major hole at third base. Newly acquired infielder Caleb Durbin (105 wRC+) is expected to man the hot corner. Slugger Willson Contreras (124 wRC+) fills a need at DH, but it’s difficult to get very excited about this offense on paper. With that being said, internal growth should be in Boston’s favor. Injuries cut short a terrific 2025 campaign from rookie Roman Anthony. Over 71 games, the outfielder slashed .292/.396/.463 with eight home runs and 32 RBIs. If he can develop into a legitimate middle of the order bat, this should be a league-average unit at minimum. The progression of fellow youngsters Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell will be worth monitoring.
If there’s a team that could shock this entire division, it’s the Orioles. Following a disappointing 2025 campaign, Baltimore aggressively pursued upgrades this offseason. That meant bringing in first baseman Pete Alonso, one of the sport’s most feared sluggers. The former Mets mainstay has belted 195 home runs since 2021. Only Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber have hit more during that time. Adding a proven All-Star to an inexperienced O’s offense should make all the difference. Standout Gunnar Henderson (120 wRC+) and offseason pickup Taylor Ward (117 wRC+) are sure to make a difference as well.
On the mound, Trevor Rogers was nothing short of spectacular last season. Over 109.2 innings of work, the left-hander posted a phenomenal 1.81 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Is this breakout for real? The answer to that question will likely determine the fate of these Orioles in 2026. It’s not as if there are a ton of other terrific arms making up this rotation. Kyle Bradish, when healthy, is a quality hurler. After that, Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt and Zach Eflin are fine, albeit unspectacular, options. There’s a higher floor here than in years past, but this is a clear notch below some other division rivals. Recently signed closer Ryan Helsley should help, but this bullpen as a whole doesn’t inspire much confidence.
I’ll try to keep things brief to round out this AL East preview. With respect to the always-competitive Rays, it’s difficult to see a division title in their future. Still, only a fool would count out these perpetual over-achievers. The middle of the order has some pop, with All-Stars Yandy Diaz (135 wRC+), Jonathan Aranda (146 wRC+) and Junior Caminero (129 wRC+). On the mound, improved health could boost former Cy Young winner Shane McClanahan. Strong starting options in Drew Rasmussen and Ryan Pepiot should help, as well. It’s also worth noting that Tampa Bay will make its long-anticipated return to Tropicana Field. After playing 2025 in Steinbrenner Field, a hitter’s haven, these dome-dwellers should benefit from taking the field at a more pitcher-friendly locale.
Best Bet: Boston Red Sox to win American League East (+310)
Keep in mind, at this point in the year we’re looking for value. The Yankees, at +160, don’t offer that. To a lesser extent, that also applies to the Jays at +250. There’s plenty of room for regression in Toronto, even if I expect this group to reach the postseason once again. Baltimore has sneaky upside, but a limited pitching staff prevents me from buying in on anything more than a Wild Card appearance.
That leaves the Red Sox as the best bet on the board. Despite injuries and a top-heavy rotation, they managed to win 87 games in 2025. Some regression from Chapman, starter Brayan Bello, and a few others should be expected. Regardless, that’s outweighed by the massive upside of the team’s young core. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Anthony blossoms into an All-Star this season. So long as the team’s veterans don’t fall off a cliff, the offense is better than you might think. Equipped with the devastating duo of Crochet and Suarez, Boston is a prime target at three-to-one odds.