When it comes to the current version of Walker Buehler, it is easy to think of the meme from “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off,” where the teacher is taking attendance and asks, “Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?”
MLB fans have been asking the same question since the right-handed starter returned in 2024 following Tommy John surgery costing him most of the 2022 season and all of 2023.
“Anyone? Anyone?”
The former Los Angeles Dodgers star is now with the San Diego Padres, having formalized a minor-league contract this week with no guarantee of a major-league job, just an opportunity with a team that is in desperate need of rotation depth.
His fall is fairly stunning when you consider that, even at the end of a disappointing 2024 campaign, Buehler was still called upon to get the final three outs of the World Series in the clinching Game 5 vs. the New York Yankees after a five-inning start in Game 3.
But here we are. Buehler made 16 starts in 2024, coming back in May from Tommy John surgery, then missing nearly two months with right hip inflammation. He turned in a 5.54 FIP over 75â…“ innings, with walk (8.1%) and strikeout (18.6%) rates that were the worst of his career as he was set to hit free agency. The Dodgers gave him a qualifying offer, but Buehler declined the $21.05 million deal and eventually signed for that same sum with the Boston Red Sox.
Buehler’s time on the opposite coast didn’t go well. His walk and strikeout rates declined again to 10.8% and 16.5%, respectively, with his FIP landing at 5.89 in 22 starts and one relief appearance. The Red Sox released Buehler late in the season, and he was scooped up by the Philadelphia Phillies. Pitching in three games, starting twice, he did well in that brief showcase for the NL East champs. In fact, his last seven appearances showed some improvement from the rest of his 2025.
Now, Buehler joins a suddenly competitive battle for the last two spots in the Padres’ rotation. Right-handers Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove are the top three. Returnee Randy Vasquez headlines the battle for the last two spots, entering camp as the No. 4. But since then, the Friars added Buehler and right-handers German Marquez and Griffin Canning to the race with another returning player, left-hander JP Sears, as well as non-roster invitees Marco Gonzales and Triston McKenzie. Musgrove is coming off Tommy John surgery and is throwing in camp, while Canning’s 2025 ended with a left Achilles injury that could sideline him for the first few months of the upcoming season.
Walker Buehler’s Stuff
Having pitched in 2025, thus having some distance from his elbow surgery, we won’t really consider his 2024 performance and instead will look at his pre-Tommy John numbers to compare both versions of Buehler.
As you might imagine, there are some dramatic differences in Buehler’s pitch movement from 2022 to 2025. One pitch that did stay the same was his four-seam fastball, which has very similar movement compared to league averages, while his knuckle curve drops 0.9 inches more. His cutter gained 0.4 inches in break over the MLB average (plus two inches in rise). His sweeper had the biggest jump with 2.5 inches more break than average, while his sinker lost an inch of tail and his changeup two inches of tail.
That movement difference becomes more important when you notice that many of his Statcast categories went from pretty good (in the red) to well below average (blue). His fastball velocity went from the 73rd percentile to the 43rd and his chase rate went from the 75th to the 20th. It takes time to learn how to pitch when your stuff deteriorates, and he might not have had quite enough of that experimentation period with the Dodgers in 2024 due to the hip injury costing him two months.
Walker Buehler’s Arsenal
Buehler actually added a pitch when he came back. He sprinkled in a slider a little bit in 2024 at 0.8%, which then surged to 14.9% in 2025, mainly against right-handed batters (20%). The slider checked in at 96.6 mph. His fastball didn’t dip a whole lot in velocity, going from 95.2 mph in 2022 to 94 mph in 2025, but it went from just above average to just below average with the league-wide rise in velocity (94.3 mph to 95 mph). That led to a slight drop in usage, going from 28.9% to 25.3%.
How Buehler deployed his cutter, knuckle curve and sinker also changed. His cutter remained his No. 2 pitch, but dropped from 25% usage to 16.9% as the velocity ticked down from 91.5 mph to 90.6. The sinker made a huge jump in usage, going from just 4.1% up to 16.4%, while the velocity dropped from 94.8 mph to 93.8 in becoming his third pitch. After his slider was introduced, the knuckle curve saw a drop from 16.8% usage to 12.9%. The changeup rounds out his repertoire and went down in usage as well, from 7.8% to 6.9%.
There’s an obvious Occam’s Razor answer in play to help Buehler. He’s diversified his arsenal to the point that he’s lost any semblance of a traditional “out pitch”, and one has to wonder if he wouldn’t benefit from honing in on his best three or four pitches, rather than trying to squeeze out league-average production from six of them.
Year
Pitch Type
#
# RHB
# LHB
%
MPH
PA
AB
H
1B
2B
3B
HR
SO
BBE
BA
XBA
SLG
XSLG
WOBA
XWOBA
EV
LA
Spin
Ext.
Whiff%
PutAway%
2025
Four Seamer
554
221
333
25.3
94.0
113
94
26
16
2
0
8
14
81
.277
.297
.553
.639
.402
.439
92.6
15
2249
6.5
15.0
10.4
2025
Cutter
370
128
242
16.9
90.6
97
85
30
19
5
1
5
7
78
.353
.337
.612
.556
.442
.417
85.4
13
2414
6.5
19.3
11.7
2025
Sinker
359
214
145
16.4
93.8
111
89
18
16
2
0
0
23
66
.202
.262
.225
.348
.288
.349
89.4
7
2123
6.5
7.4
24.5
2025
Slider
327
189
138
14.9
87.5
87
76
23
19
2
0
2
10
66
.303
.284
.408
.449
.356
.363
87.8
13
2525
6.6
21.8
9.1
2025
Knuckle Curve
282
34
248
12.9
77.4
65
61
17
11
3
0
3
15
46
.279
.229
.475
.375
.345
.285
85.4
9
2435
6.6
24.8
14.0
2025
Changeup
150
6
144
6.9
89.7
43
39
10
8
1
0
1
13
27
.256
.163
.359
.225
.290
.204
87.2
5
1560
6.5
21.7
21.3
2025
Sweeper
147
147
0
6.7
80.8
48
46
6
2
1
0
3
10
36
.130
.209
.348
.362
.219
.262
80.8
13
2715
6.6
34.1
13.7
2024
Four Seamer
386
163
223
28.9
95.0
90
79
27
15
4
0
8
9
71
.342
.330
.696
.659
.462
.450
92.3
16
2279
6.5
16.9
9.8
2024
Cutter
279
93
186
20.9
91.2
69
63
15
10
2
1
2
14
49
.238
.214
.397
.321
.307
.272
84.0
8
2417
6.6
21.5
19.4
2024
Knuckle Curve
256
54
202
19.2
78.0
60
54
15
9
3
1
2
18
37
.278
.282
.481
.457
.348
.347
89.6
17
2566
6.6
26.7
18.8
2024
Sinker
219
182
37
16.4
94.8
64
55
16
14
2
0
0
7
48
.291
.228
.327
.279
.325
.286
83.8
2
2140
6.5
11.5
13.0
2024
Sweeper
116
116
0
8.7
82.6
37
34
5
3
0
0
2
13
21
.147
.160
.324
.256
.238
.223
82.4
8
2698
6.6
28.8
22.0
2024
Changeup
69
1
68
5.2
90.0
23
22
10
5
4
0
1
3
19
.455
.310
.773
.473
.529
.353
92.1
10
1564
6.5
8.8
13.6
2024
Slider
11
10
1
0.8
86.2
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
1.000
.437
4.000
1.522
2.050
.797
98.7
27
2569
6.5
33.3
0.0
2022
Four Seamer
363
157
206
34.7
95.2
92
80
30
20
5
0
5
9
71
.375
.307
.625
.599
.463
.423
92.1
16
2267
6.5
13.5
10.2
2022
Cutter
262
123
139
25.0
91.5
67
64
15
12
3
0
0
13
51
.234
.275
.281
.372
.247
.303
81.9
2
2411
6.5
26.6
23.2
2022
Knuckle Curve
176
18
158
16.8
79.2
44
41
7
5
1
0
1
10
31
.171
.217
.268
.365
.223
.281
86.4
2
2662
6.5
30.2
18.2
2022
Sweeper
120
120
0
11.5
83.5
31
31
6
3
1
0
2
14
17
.194
.166
.419
.338
.260
.212
85.9
13
2673
6.5
39.1
24.1
2022
Changeup
82
5
77
7.8
90.5
29
29
4
2
1
1
0
10
19
.138
.182
.241
.293
.160
.204
87.0
-7
1550
6.4
31.3
22.2
2022
Sinker
43
38
5
4.1
94.8
11
10
5
4
1
0
0
2
8
.500
.403
.600
.540
.499
.432
95.4
1
2161
6.3
10.5
40.0
What Should Walker Buehler’s Role Be In 2026?
If Buehler did find something in his final seven appearances and fine tunes that under the watch of pitching coach Ruben Niebla this spring, he definitely deserves a spot in the rotation and has perhaps the most upside of any of the candidates mentioned above considering his past performance.
He made it through 2025 without any known injuries, so this offseason was likely spent figuring out how to use the weapons he has effectively. With two open spots in the rotation and a handful of players battling to be on the Opening Day roster, Buehler has every opportunity to be in the rotation. He has been a starter his entire career, with a limited number of relief appearances, and the Padres’ bullpen is already pretty full, so the alternative would be for him to head to Triple-A El Paso, since he did sign a minor-league deal, should things not go his way during spring training.
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