After our next cold front on Saturday, we’ll have a brief stretch of near-normal temperatures for the beginning of the week, but don’t get too excited, afternoon temps are expected to surge back into the 80s and even approach 90 degrees before the month wraps up.
Up to this point, the average high temperature for February has been 75.5 degrees, tying 2017 for the warmest on record. When combining daytime highs and nighttime lows, the overall monthly average stands at 62.9 degrees, placing it second only to February 2017, which holds the record at 64.5 degrees.
Does a warm February — with the possibility of 90-degree temperatures — signal an extremely hot summer? Historical data shows a strong correlation.
A warm February has led to a hotter-than-normal summer 70% of the time in Austin. Of the 20 warmest February’s on record, 14 were followed by above-average summer temperatures.
Still, a warm February does not guarantee a scorching summer. In 1976, Austin recorded its fourth-warmest February on record. The following summer finished with an average high of 90.5 degrees, making it the city’s second-coolest summer in the past 100 years.
A weak frontal boundary has moved into Central Texas and stalled. This will lead to a humid air mass overhead, with overcast skies Friday morning along with some drizzle and mist, before turning mostly cloudy by the afternoon with a light north wind. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than in the past few afternoons, which were in the 80s.
Another frontal boundary is expected to arrive overnight Friday into Saturday morning. This one lacks a significantly cooler air mass, as temperatures will remain in the 70s during the afternoon. But it will bring lower humidity and gusty north winds. This combination will result in wildfire weather concerns, and the Texas A&M Forest Service has Central Texas under a high to very high threat of fast-spreading wildfires on Saturday.
A stronger secondary surge of colder air will arrive Saturday night, dropping temperatures slightly below our normal highs and lows of 67 and 47 degrees from Sunday through Tuesday morning.