DALLAS — New data shows Valentine’s Day weekend was a big financial boon for Texas restaurants this year as compared to 2025. 

OpenTable online reservations were up 75% last week, and the cost of those holiday plans increased nearly 10% for those who dined out — according to data from “Sunday,” a restaurant payment platform.

But just because there was a Valentine’s spike, restaurant experts say it doesn’t mean the rest of the year will be worth celebrating.

Throwing wood into the fire and rolling up the paper towels to perfection are just some of the finishing touches before Jeff Bergus and his staff serve up a savory slice of Texas.

He and his wife, Jill, are the co-owners of Lockhart Smokehouse in Dallas. 

“We own two. You know it’s not just cause you can make a good brisket in your backyard. Anybody can do barbecue. It’s a lot more than that,” said Jeff.

It’s a lot more pivoting when patrons are pushing for that Texas Smoked Trinity of brisket, ribs and sausage.

“With beef prices where they are, and also with incoming issues like the screwworm that’s coming up from Mexico, and that’s gonna be a challenge for our farmers and ranchers. We’re focusing on how we can be a little bit more creative,” said Jill.

With 15 years of experience in the restaurant industry under their belt, they’ve seen it all—from shortages in serving supplies post-COVID to price increases in rent and insurance and bumping up employees’ pay. 

New data from the Texas Restaurant Association (TRA) paints a grim picture for 2026.

“And so, while we thought we might have a little bit of improvement. We’re now seeing things like beef and the commodities section. We may not get any relief until 2028. And so, while there was a lot of consistency between the two quarters, unfortunately, some of that consistencies are the numbers that we don’t want to see for restaurants,” said Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of Texas Restaurant Association.

This month, TRA released its fourth-quarter economics report for 2025, comparing it to the previous quarter. It showed a slight increase in restaurant profit, but the report still reveals it was noticeably slower than in previous years.

“What we’re really going to monitor is that check average, right? So, our consumers are coming out, but are they actually spending less? Not buying a drink, not buying dessert,” said Williams Knight.

Beef is also on the brain of state officials. This month, Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller issued an urgent call to action to protect Texas barbecue.

Citing a troubling wave of restaurant closures and operational challenges driven by record-high prices, the national cattle herd is at its lowest point in 75 years.

“I would say definitely last year we saw sales dip below previous thresholds for us. So, we’re getting by. You know we’re not throwing money out of the ATM machine or anything like that. But we’re trying to manage the things we can control,” said Jeff.

And for them, that’s serving up that Central Texas flavor in North Texas for decades to come.