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The No. 2 ranked Houston Cougars host the No. 4 Arizona Wildcats in a marquee matchup on Saturday.
Early money has shifted the Wildcats from +4.5 to +6.5 and my Arizona vs. Houston predictions think that’s too many points to spot the No. 3 rated team in the country at KenPom.
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Here are my best free college basketball picks for this battle between two of the best teams in the nation on February 21.
Arizona vs Houston prediction
Arizona vs Houston best bet: Arizona +6.5 (-110)
This is a buy-low spot for the Arizona Wildcats who lost a pair of close games against No. 8 Kansas and No. 13 Texas Tech last week. They bounced back with a win against BYU earlier this week and I expect their elite defense to keep things within two possessions.
The Houston Cougars generate much of their offense through second chances on the glass but Arizona ranks 16th in the country in defensive rebounding rate. The Wildcats are also fourth in opponent two-point percentage (43.6%) and their size will make it tough for Houston to get to the rim.
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Arizona vs Houston same-game parlay
Teams have been clogging the paint against the Wildcats, daring their outside shooters to beat them. That should lead to opportunities on the perimeter for Brayden Burries who has knocked down 1.8 threes per game at a 39% clip over his last 20 contests.
While freshman forward Koa Peat is sidelined by a muscle strain, senior Tobe Awaka is a more than capable replacement who is an upgrade defensively and on the boards. Awaka averages 9.6 rebounds in just 21.7 minutes per game and more playing time will lead to even loftier rebounding numbers.
Arizona vs Houston SGP
Brayden Burries Over 1.5 threes
Tobe Awaka Over 9.5 rebounds
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Our beyond the arc SGP: Freshmen Flurry
With both teams defending at an elite level on the interior, expect freshmen guards Brayden Burries and Kingston Flemings to carry the offensive load.
Burries has scored more than 14.5 points in six of his last seven games while grabbing 5+ boards in 10 of his previous 13 contests. Flemings averages 16.6 ppg and 5.3 apg and he has dropped at least 19 points in all seven of his games against ranked opponents.
Arizona vs Houston SGP
Brayden Burries Over 14.5 points
Brayden Burries Over 4.5 rebounds
Kingston Flemings Over 19.5 points
Kingston Flemings Over 5.5 assists
Arizona vs Houston odds
Spread: Arizona +6.5 | Houston -6.5
Moneyline: Arizona +220 | Houston -270
Over/Under: Over 141.5 | Under 141.5
Arizona vs Houston betting trend to know
The Under has cashed in seven of Arizona’s last nine games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona vs. Houston.
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How to watch Arizona vs Houston
Location
Fertitta Center, Houston, TX
Date
Saturday, February 21, 2026
Tip-off
3:00 p.m. ET
TV
ABC
Arizona vs Houston key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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