Texas Tech shot well enough to win Saturday in Boulder. The Lady Raiders unfortunately didn’t finish enough possessions on the other end to actually do it. Over simplified? Perhaps, but let’s dive in a bit more.

Colorado defeated Texas Tech 75-68, dropping Tech to 24-5 overall and creating a fourth place tie between the two teams at 11-5 in Big 12 play with two games remaining. This result happened despite the Lady Raiders posting great efficiency numbers — 57.8% from the field, 53.8% from three, and 90% at the free-throw line. Normally, that formula travels. This game though, the possession math — and pace — didn’t.

“I thought we played really well offensively,” said Texas Tech head coach Krista Gerlich. “We shot the mess out of the ball… but they got too many second-chance opportunities and they made us pay for it. Rebounding is definitely the difference in the game.”

On paper, two negative numbers jump out: 18 turnovers and the -16 rebounding margin. The turnover number looks and certainly felt loud, but Texas Tech actually finished +1 in turnover margin, forcing 19 while committing 18. That category was not clean, especially late, but it was manageable because of how you recovered.

The real separation came on the glass and in the tempo battle.

Colorado finished with 10 more field goal attempts (55 to 45), a swing that represents roughly 20–30 potential points in a game the Buffs won by seven. Factoring in the turnover margin already discussed, those extra shots ultimately came on the glass.

Texas Tech was outrebounded 34-18 overall and allowed 17 offensive rebounds while grabbing just three. That is 17 defensive possessions where Tech forced a miss but never completed the stop.

Combine the rebounding woes with the stark pace swings throughout the game, and the picture becomes clear.

Quarter-by-Quarter: Pace + Glass

1st Quarter
Pace: 71
Rebounds: Even 5-5
Turnovers: TTU 5, CU 6
Margin: TTU +4

2nd Quarter
Pace: 60.7
Turnovers: TTU 2, CU 2
Rebounds: CU 13, TTU 4
Margin: TTU -7

3rd Quarter
Pace: 66.9
Turnovers: TTU 3, CU 5
Rebounds: TTU 7, CU 6
Margin: TTU +9

4th Quarter
Pace: 60.2
Turnovers: TTU 7, CU 6
Rebounds: CU 10, TTU 2
Margin: TTU -13

As you can see there is really no correlation with turnovers but rebounding and pace? Texas Tech won the first and third quarters when the game had more flow and the glass was competitive. The Lady Raiders have shown they can win games being out rebounded (see their 31 point win over Baylor in which they lost the boards by 3) but it can’t be by nearly double their own, there are levels to this. Ultimately, when the pace slowed and the rebounding margin widened, the game tilted hard toward Colorado.

That is not accidental.

Colorado is one of the better half-court defensive teams in the league, and the second and fourth quarters played directly into that strength. As the tempo ground down, Texas Tech increasingly found itself initiating offense against a fully set defense which was rough.

When Tech was able to start actions earlier, in late transition even, the looks were cleaner. Attacking downhill before Colorado’s length got organized produced rim pressure and kick-out threes.

In the second and especially fourth quarter, that window shrank.

Was natural fatigue at altitude a factor being the latter 10 minutes of each half? Maybe. But that is part of Colorado’s formula, and Texas Tech ultimately allowed the game to grind to a halt and away from where it is at its best.

Everyone wants to find a magic bullet. A cure-all. Insert this into X and the formula is solved.

It is February 22. There is no magic bullet.

Teams largely are who they are at this point in the season. Texas Tech is a good basketball team. Colorado is too. Both should be headed for the NCAA Tournament. On this night though, the game slowed, the glass tilted and Tech played into Colorado’s hands and away from it’s own too often to survive.

The Lady Raiders now turn the page quickly as they have all season with a Wednesday trip to Kansas, a team Texas Tech beat 70-65 in a physical matchup in Lubbock on Feb. 10. Thus far, Texas Tech has been strong in second meetings, beating both Houston and Baylor by large margins the second time around.

They will need to show that same experienced approach again to overcome a Kansas team scratching and clawing for its postseason life on its home floor Wednesday night.

Game time is set for 6:30 p.m. CT on ESPN+.

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