It is never too early to start talking midterms, even if they are still over eight months away. The primaries are coming in just a few weeks, but even this far out from November, concerns of low turnout are beginning to grow. Not among Democrats, among Republicans. It is due to a familiar cycle as well, which has come back to haunt Republicans in previous cycles.
That problem is that President Trump is not on the ballot. That has become an issue for the GOP. When Trump is not on the ballot, people just tend to fall flat and not feel like they relate to the candidate. Mostly because the old GOP is dying, if not already dead. People identify more with the Trump ideology than they do the old Republican guard.
But this issue is once again sparking worries the voter base will not show up in November. University of Houston Political Science professor Dr. Jacquie Baly says midterms do not fire people up anyway. So, the candidates have to get bold.
“What the candidates have to do is mobilize their base and give them a compelling reason as to why they need to vote,” she says.
It has been an issue recently in various special elections across the country. No matter how much Trump said about the person, how much he liked them, or how much he urged people to vote for them, they all ended up losing. Not because people did not like the candidate. Because voter turnout among the GOP was low.
Nothing is more vindictive and grudge-holding than the current day Democrat. They are determined to get out and vote. If you have to give them credit for anything, it is the fact they are passionate.
Now in Texas, we have a very compelling race for a U.S. Senate seat. That will be enough to turn people out and encourage them to vote. Other places, however, are not so lucky.
“You have other states where you do not have these exciting races, in those races, you will see a lower turnout…because there is not a reason for people to get to the polls and make their voices heard,” Dr. Baly says.
But the Trump endorsement does hold weight. Especially in big-time race, or close races. So, expect those lower-covered candidates to use those to push them over the finish line.
“You have seen candidates say they are endorsed by President Trump…that helps voters realize President Trump is behind this person, and this person will carry out the Trump agenda,” says Dr. Baly.
However, if the GOP cannot capture the imagination of the voter. If the GOP fails to mobilize the base and get out the vote, it could be a November that sees the Republicans majority shrink or flip entirely.