In another sign that Austin’s once red-hot real estate market has cooled, new data show there are significantly more lots available for new homes than the current pace of construction can absorb.
“Policy uncertainty, the current cost of living, student loans, labor market concerns, interest rates, home prices, changes to immigration, geopolitics, and more have all slowed consumer demand,” said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda and NewHomeSource. “When consumers aren’t happy, builders aren’t happy, and that’s exactly what we are seeing in the data.”
New-home starts were down 14.5% year over year through October, according to Unlock MLS. San Antonio outpaced Austin by roughly 3,000 new home starts in the second quarter, perhaps contributing to what Zonda data show is a market now appropriately supplied with build-ready lots.
Taken together, though, the neighboring metros would rank as the third-strongest new-home construction market in the country.
With the nation’s loosest lot supply in the fourth quarter, Austin was classified as “significantly oversupplied,” a category in which it was joined only by Denver. It marked the first time any major market reached that level since 2017.
Dallas was slightly oversupplied and Houston was appropriately supplied.
Nationally, lot supply loosened in nearly every major metro in the fourth quarter, though most remain undersupplied.
“Builders have scaled back starts in response to slower sales, which by extension has allowed for lot supply to grow,” Wolf said.
Zonda’s New Home Lot Supply Index measures the number of finished, build-ready single-family lots and adjusts that total based on how quickly builders are starting new homes. When the index rises, it typically signals that builders are slowing construction faster than lot inventory is being absorbed.