Texas is a key battleground for the midterm elections in November where the Democrats are hoping to turn Texas blue and the Republicans hoping to keep control of Texas. Going into the second week of early voting for the March 3 primaries, the parties and candidates are scrutinizing who are casting votes to glean some insight into which party has the edge over the other when the November ballots are cast.
Although the primary votes are a battle for who will represent the party in November, the head-to-head party votes offer a glimpse as to what voters want in November. The Democrats are hoping James Talarico will help them turn Texas blue, while the Republican’s candidate – John Cornyn faces a challenging primary to be on the November ballot as the incumbent. Meanwhile, Jasmine Crockett is challenging Talarico to be the candidate to run against Cornyn. With millions spent between Crockett and Talarico, it is clear that major interests are at play for the Democrats’ quest to turn Texas blue.
Talarico was in El Paso on Saturday carrying his political message about how Texans want both border security and immigration reform. Crockett followed Talarico the next day with her own message in El Paso about the need to reform Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and telling voters that she is against ICE warehouse detention facilities in their communities.
The ongoing controversies over ICE reform and immigrant detention warehouses have become the flashpoint for the midterm elections. Communities, including El Paso, have been pushing back on the federal government purchasing warehouse space to build immigration detention centers in their communities. The federal government has been partially shutdown for 11 days as Congress looks to address the Democrat’s three primary issues over ICE – judicial warrants, code of conduct for ICE agents and the removal of face masks by federal agents performing immigration enforcement duties.
The contentious race between Crockett and Talarico is over who the Democrats feel is the candidate best suited to defeat Cornyn in November – a conciliatory candidate over immigration like Talarico, or a more assertive candidate like Crockett.
Emerson polling from last month shows that the Democrats leading the primary for Cornyn’s seat are Talarico with 47% against Crockett’s 38% among the Democrat likely voters. On the Republican ticket, the incumbent Cornyn is facing a tough challenge from Ken Paxton. Paxton fully supports the Trump agenda in almost every aspect, especially on immigration. Cornyn initially opposed the border wall but has lately come out in full support of it. Donald Trump has refused to endorse a candidate in this race leaving Republican voters without guidance from the head of the party.
A Hart Research poll from February 16 shows that Crockett polls better than Cornyn among likely November Texas voters. Crockett, the poll suggests, is better positioned to topple Paxton in a head-to-head battle should Paxton win the primary.
The poll makes many assumptions so early in the matchup, but its results suggest that Republicans may be facing a Texas revolt over their control of Texas politics. The opportunity for Democrats lies in Trump’s declining trend by voters across the nation, especially on immigration.
Trump has a dismal 39% approval rating according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released two days ago. Almost 60% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s immigration enforcement. Republicans are also facing push back on immigration in Texas as east Texas homebuilders are decrying serious losses caused by immigration enforcement.
The Early Voting Numbers
Against this political backdrop are the ongoing ballots being cast in the March 3 primaries. Early results suggest that El Paso’s Democrats are voting more than their Republican counterparts but Republicans tend to cast their ballots on Election Day rather than during the early voting period.
However, El Paso’s early voters seem to be new voters casting ballots in the primary for the first time. This suggests that Democrats may be more engaged on who will represent them on the November 3rd midterm elections.
According to VoteHub, which tracks who is voting across the state, there has been a surge of over 100% among Democrats casting primary ballots in Texas so far. According to VoteHub, 638,083 Democrats have cast ballots, up from the 268,815 who cast a ballot during the same time in 2022. More Republicans have also turned up to the polls in Texas so far. According to VoteHub’s data, 542,943 Republicans have cast early voter ballots in Texas so far, compared to the 442,302 cast in 2022.
In El Paso, for the Republicans, the results are similar with 5,577 ballots cast to date, compared to the 3,876 ballots cast in 2022. However, El Paso’s Democrats have also surged by almost 75% with 15,911 ballots cast in this election cycle compared to the 9,609 ballots cast in 2022.
Recent wins by Democrats have given hope to Democrats for the upcoming mid-terms in November while leading Republicans to worry about how Trump’s politics will impact them at the ballot box. The difficulty Cornyn faces to keep his seat and Trump staying out of his election suggests that the Republicans face a tough midterm election.
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