AUSTIN, Texas — With one day remaining in early voting, turnout in the Texas primary election has been high from the start, with Democratic voters outpacing Republicans in participation.

According to Vote Hub, a total of 869,118 Democratic voters have cast ballots statewide, compared with 732,144 Republican voters. Democratic turnout is 276 percent higher than at the same point in the last midterm primary, while Republican turnout has increased by 158 percent over the 2022 midterm primary.

Brian Smith, a professor of political science at St. Edward’s University, said increased turnout reflects heightened enthusiasm among voters and could influence participation in the general election. “Higher voter turnout in the primaries means more excitement for the party, and primary voters are general election voters, so more voters now will translate into the fall,” Smith said. He added that the turnout surge may also be tied to interest in a competitive and costly Texas Senate race, noting, “it also means that they’re excited by the very close and very expensive Texas Senate race.”

In the Democratic primary, State Representative James Talarico and U.S. Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett are competing for their party’s nomination. Talarico said his campaign is focused on mobilizing voters across Texas. “We are building a movement to take back the state and this country. We are focusing on mobilizing voters all over the state,” he said.

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Crockett has also campaigned statewide, telling voters she is the strongest candidate for the November ballot. “I am tired of people asking if I am electable. We know that it is nothing but a dog whistle. We know that if we know the history of Texas, the same type of people told Ann Richards, and you can go and Google this, the same type of people who told her she wasn’t electable because she was a woman,” Crockett said.

Recent polling suggests Crockett holds a slight lead. The Texas Politics Project poll shows her ahead, while a Vote Hub poll places her at 45 percent of the Democratic primary vote compared with 41 percent for Talarico. Smith cautioned that primary polling does not necessarily predict the outcome of the general election. “Not particularly, because they’ve fallen in love with candidates before,” he said. He added that without broader support, Democratic candidates could still face challenges in November: “But unless they actually are able to get rural voters, weak Republicans, independent voters to switch over, it might be a close race, but they’ll still end up losing.”

Smith said that candidates leading in the primaries typically maintain their advantage through Election Day, unless there is an unexpected surge in turnout. “If turnout goes way up, meaning there’s a surge on election day, that’s unexpected. That means new voters are coming out,” he said.

On the Republican side, Vote Hub reports turnout is also significantly higher than in the last midterm primary — 158 percent higher than at the same point in 2022. In a statement, the chair of the Travis County GOP said many voters are still seeking more information about the numerous candidates on the Republican ballot.