Bryan Armetta shares his preview, prediction, and pick for Saturday’s game between the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns.
Coming into Saturday, Texas (18-12, 9-8) is firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Another loss to end the regular season could hurt the Longhorns’ chances at earning an at-large bid. Oklahoma (16-14, 6-11) is looking to play spoiler on the road against an old-school rival. Can the Sooners pull off an upset this evening?
Texas enters Saturday as 7.5-point favorites (-105) over Oklahoma. The total is set at 154.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for tonight’s game between the Sooners and the Longhorns.
Oklahoma vs. Texas prediction, preview
A close look at KenPom reveals that the Sooners are somewhat underrated. Their +16.32 net rating places them at 47th in the country. To boot, this group wields the nation’s 20th-best adjusted offensive efficiency (123.6). Granted, Oklahoma is only playing at a 66.4 adjusted tempo, 238th among 365 Division I schools. Still, the team has managed to average an impressive 82.6 points per game. Where OU really shines is from beyond the arc, knocking down an impressive 37.2% of its three-point attempts. That places them as second-best in that category among all 16 SEC programs.
This is a deep, dangerous offense, with several different playmakers to keep in check. In the back court, guards Nijel Pack and Xzayvier Brown are putting up a combined 31.4 points, 6.1 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game. Down low, Tae Davis (12.1 PPG, 5.7 REB) and Derrion Reid (11.3 PPG, 4.5 REB) can wreak havoc as well. The rub on these Sooners is an inability to get stops. They’ve posted an SEC-worst 107.2 adjusted defensive efficiency mark on KenPom. Oklahoma has been especially bad at boxing out, ranking 305th in opponent offensive rebound rate (33.2%).
If there was ever a squad that can exploit matchups on the glass, it’s Texas. The Longhorns are 16th in all of college basketball with a 55.2% total rebounding rate. Matas Vokietaitis should play a major role for the home team tonight. It’s been a terrific season for the seven-footer, putting up 15.7 points and 6.9 rebounds per game in addition to an SEC-best 64% field goal percentage Fellow big man Dailyn Swain is the team’s leading scorer and a terrific rebounder in his own right (17.7 PPG, 7.5 REB). Five different members of head coach Sean Miller’s rotation are at least 6’7″.
Much like Oklahoma, the Longhorns know how to put up buckets. This crew ranks seventh on KenPom with a phenomenal 126.9 adjusted offensive efficiency. However, the way these schools go about scoring points is quite different. The Sooners prefer to fire away from deep, leaning on the guard duo of Pack and Brown. In comparison, Texas ranks second in the nation with 46.1 free throw attempts per field goals attempted. That ability to get to the line could put OU in early foul trouble.
Oklahoma vs. Texas pick, best bet
Both of these schools have been enigmas this season. Texas has notched seven different Quad 1 wins. That includes a ten-point victory over the Sooners, who have four Quad 1 triumphs of their own. Still, it feels dangerous backing either side this evening. Instead, the safer bet might be on the over. One team knows how to shoot the ball, while the other gets to the charity stripe. Those are the two quickest ways to put up points. Keeping that in mind, expect some fireworks to end the SEC regular season.