Tonight the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs complete their season series. San Antonio leads 2-1, and a win for the Spurs would clinch the tiebreaker, not that it’s likely to matter. This is the first of three difficult games in four days for Houston.
To talk about the Spurs, I enlisted the help of my friend, Blaine. He’s a Spurs fan that spent many nights with us in Playback (RIP), and he’s a smart basketball mind and great dude. I asked him some questions and he was kind enough to give some super detailed answers, even when I put him on the spot with San Antonio’s championship chances. I learned a ton, and I hope you do as well.
Armin (AK): By the old Phil Jackson metric, approximately 83% of all NBA champions won 40 games before losing 20. The Spurs are one of three teams that qualify this season. How serious are San Antonio’s chances? What would you consider a successful postseason?
Blaine: Going into this season, I honestly thought we would be happy with the 6 seed. At this point in time, we are probably a year ahead of what I thought our progression would be. Last year, we finished 13th in the West. I figured we would pass Portland Trail Blazers, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings, and Memphis Grizzlies. I thought Dallas could be dangerous if they were healthy, but we knew Kyrie Iriving was a long shot this year, and Anthony Davis doesn’t have the best luck. I didn’t love Golden State’s offseason, the LA Clippers were (are) going through an interesting Steve Ballmer/Kawhi Leonard based investigation. That left Oklahoma City, y’all, the LA Lakers, Denver Nuggets, and Minnesota Timberwolves as teams I thought could stay ahead of us and it still be seen as a potentially successful year of further growth. Y’all lost Fred VanVleet, then Steven Adams, and Dorian Finney-Smith hasn’t been the player I thought he could be for y’all. Denver has had to go without Nikola Jokic for a stretch, Aaron Gordon for longer, and Cam Johnson hasn’t been as big of a factor as I thought he could be for them, but they should be a dangerous team come playoff time. We’ve shown we can matchup well with OKC, beating them 4-1 this season (admittedly, 1 game they basically punted), but they are still the defending champs and current #1 overall seed.
All this is to say that we definitely have a shot, but history says it’s unlikely. The list is short for teams that found postseason success with as little playoff experience as our core has. On the plus side, Harrison Barnes and Luke Kornet each have 5 playoff runs and one ring each, but Barnes was 5th in minutes for the Warriors in the 2015 finals, Kornet was 11th for the Celtics in 2024. Outside of them, De’Aaron Fox has one playoff series, that’s it for our top 10 players.
On the plus side, we have a generational talent that is continuing to grow (in talent, but some say he might be taller than he was last year), and the team around him is getting better too. I wrote earlier that I thought we would be happy with the 6th seed going into the year. What I didn’t see that had me setting the lower expectations was not only Victor Wembanyama still clinging to the possibility of hitting the 65 game mark, but that we now have a team around him that doesn’t crumble without him on the floor. I believe we are 10-4 in games without him this season, although we were lucky that many of those came during a somewhat forgiving stretch.
Fox has been great, even though it seems like we are keeping his usage a bit lower than he deserves. He hasn’t been getting near the credit he deserves from Spurs fans, which I hope is due to the excitement of our younger core, I can also be guilty of this. I’m glad he got the all-star nod even if there were arguments for other replacements.
Stephon Castle has taken a nice leap. His 3% hasn’t increased much, but I’m more confident in the attempts than I was last year. His playmaking continues to grow and he is probably the best lobber on the team. He’s also the best point-of-attack defender and has had some really nice putbacks. I believe he is deserving of an All-Defensive Team selection. I see him and Amen Thompson as very comparable players. Castle is a better shooter and maybe slight edge in playmaking, while Thompson still has the advantage on defense and rebounding.
Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson have both adjusted their games to become really useful to us. Vassell as a spark plug on offense, and Keldon as a battery and battering ram. Vassell has had a really good shooting stretch. In a 5 game stretch from 2/23-3/3 he averaged 5 3PMs on 62.5%. Johnson is still in the running for 6MOY, although I think the chances have chilled slightly post all star break.
AK: San Antonio appears so deep right now and is seemingly getting contributions from everyone. Besides playoff experience, what do the Spurs need to get to the next level moving forward? Is internal development enough or do you see the Spurs making a splash in free agency in Wemby’s last rookie contract season? (Note: The Spurs will have something around $35-40 million in space under the first apron this summer)
Blaine: Along with the guys above, Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant are also exciting looks into the future while providing valuable play. Harper plays with a veteran’s level of change of pace and shows real flashes of something special, while Bryant has recently shown flashes of becoming a great 3&D player. They are clear parts of the future so some care needs to be taken that we have money available for them when the time comes.
Kornet is the final player I feel sure will be around for the next 3 years. He’s been a really great back up big, even if it doesn’t always show up in the box score. He does so many of the little things that allow the team to be successful.
Barnes has been a solid vet and has gone through stretches of being a really important floor stretcher for us. Unfortunately, his ironman streak of 364 straight regular season games played was snapped due to a sore ankle, his 3% has dropped over 5% from last year, Bryant is showing growth, and his current contract is too big and runs out at the end of the year. He’d be great to have back, but I don’t know that he would or should take the cut needed for us to make it happen.
Julian Champagnie is currently on one of the best contracts (non-rookie or superstar-on-max edition). We have a team option, but I’m sure we will try to renegotiate for a longer deal while trying to keep it somewhat team friendly.
Looking into next year, we have Atlanta’s pick that will likely be a lottery pick. Depending on where that pick falls could determine if we feel like we luck into another rotational piece or if we use it to package for a different piece or future pick. Looking over a list of upcoming FAs, the number of good fits that I think have a ok chance of moving are fairly slim. Rui Hachimura and John Collins are maybe the best options which aren’t the flashiest moves. Therefore, I think our best chance at a big swing would be to sign and trade Barnes packaged with ATL’s pick. A bigger swing would have to include Vassell or Johnson that, as I’ve stated, have been playing well this season and could be considered the hearts of the team, especially Keldon on the latter.
I think it is more likely that we try to make a Barnes deal work, while extending Wemby and Champagnie.
AK: Fill in the blank: The Spurs are winning a title in the next _____ years.
Blaine: When Tim Duncan retired, I said with full sincerity that I would be satisfied as a fan if we never won another because of the 5 rings he brought to my favorite team, and asking for anything further would be greedy. Well, the 3rd lucky pick of a ping pong ball that gave me a generation big to watch has me feeling like Scrooge McDuck. I stated earlier in the year that I’m still not a big fan of the Cup. Players get more money, good for them, but for me as a fan, I’m not ready to give this midseason tournament any prestige. That being said, it was great for us this year. The OKC and New York Knicks games had a solid playoff-like atmosphere that gives the young core at least a small feel of what to expect come playoffs. I’m trying hard to keep my expectations tempered. Injuries happen, guys playing well lead to them earning contracts that break teams apart, teams struggle at the wrong time, and opposing teams have the opposite happen at the right time for them. We aren’t here for that though, and I’m not backing down from your challenge to actually answer this question that I usually talk my way around. Spurs in 3. Maybe we get lucky this year, we have been playing really well. If we make it to the conference finals this year, I think we can rebound and make it through the next. If we flame out early, I think we do whatever we need to to make it work in the 3rd. There, you got me to say it. You happy?
AK: What are your thoughts on the Rockets as an outsider?
Blaine: Before the injuries, I really thought this could be y’all’s year. I’ve been telling you since the start of the year that I think y’all are a bad matchup for us. Wemby has more difficulty with Alperen Sengun’s offensive timing, Kevin Durant is still a bucket, Jabari Smith Jr. gives y’all extra size, and I remain a big fan of both Amen and Reed Sheppard.
AK: Got any fun tidbits I didn’t ask?
Blaine: Just for fun, Spurs have some pretty good duo names. Ex Area 51 (Wemby/Castle), Pineapple Express (Castle/Vassell), Slash Bros (Castle/Harper), French Vanilla (Wemby/Kornet), White Castle (Castle/Kornet). Do the Rockets have any fun nicknames?
Also, current situation of Wemby chasing Dream’s block record:
Current Pace (3.48) 936 games to overtake (14.4 65 game seasons)
Wemby 1st 3 seasons: 166 games, 577 blocks, 3.48 BPG
Hakeem 1st 3 seasons: 225 games, 705 blocks, 3.13 BPG
Hakeem in 1st 166 games: 501 blocks, 3.02 BPG
Wemby age now 22 years 62 days
Hakeem age first nba game 21 years 280 days
The Line (as of this post)
Looking ahead because we can
Tuesday night at home against the Toronto Raptors