It’s been two days since President Donald Trump said he would not only endorse a candidate in the Texas primary runoff between Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton, but that he would also try to get the other candidate to bow out.

That endorsement still hasn’t come.

Trump said on Friday that he’ll make a “decision fairly shortly,” but suggested he first wants to get some clarity on voter ID legislation he favors – and where the candidates stand on it.

“I feel very strongly that we have to have the full and complete SAVE America Act, OK? I want the SAVE America Act. It is more important than everything else we’re working on other than the war,” Trump told CNN’s Dana Bash in a brief phone interview.

So it appears we’re in a bit of a holding pattern. Which might not be too surprising. Because even as Trump’s endorsement is often the be-all, end-all in GOP primaries, this situation is not an easy one for him.

The conventional wisdom – and the most logical outcome – would seem to be that Trump will endorse Cornyn ahead of the May 26 runoff.

It would be shocking for an incumbent president to endorse against an incumbent senator from his own party, especially given Cornyn is backed by the national party.

Cornyn also did better than many expected in Tuesday’s primaries, narrowly outpacing Paxton 42%-41%.

And finally – and perhaps most urgently – Texas Democrats on Tuesday nominated the candidate that Republicans seem to be more concerned about in the general election, in state Rep. James Talarico. Given Paxton’s baggage – which includes a since settled securities fraud investigation, an impeachment by the state House (and acquittal by the Senate), and allegations of infidelity from his wife – there is real fear that nominating him could not only jeopardize the seat if there’s a blue wave in November, but possibly help Democrats flip the Senate.

So, in theory, it would make a lot of sense for Trump to swoop in, spur Cornyn to victory, and allow the GOP to hopefully not have to worry about this seat in the fall.

But reality is a little more complicated. For one, trying to nudge aside Paxton could be demoralizing for a MAGA movement that holds him in very high regard but has little respect for Cornyn. After Trump made his announcement Wednesday, a number of prominent MAGA social media accounts sought to warn the president off a potential Cornyn endorsement.

“Cornyn hates Trump and MAGA,” MAGA influencer Mike Cernovich said. “Endorsing him will be a nail in the Trump administration’s coffin.”

Trump himself in 2023 wrote a post suggesting Cornyn was about as bad as then-Sen. Mitt Romney, a frequent critic. Trump called Cornyn “weak, ineffective, and very bad for the Republican Party” and suggested he was “always quick to surrender to the Dems.” Trump still has the loyalty of his base, but he’s done a number of things in recent months that risk jeopardizing it. A Cornyn endorsement would add to the list.

But perhaps more significantly, Paxton is – at least for now – insisting he wouldn’t abide by Trump’s wishes to bow out.

“I owe it to the people of Texas,” Paxton said Wednesday.

(Paxton did offer Thursday to drop out of the race if Senate leadership agreed to pass the Save America Act without the usual 60-vote threshold. But that’s likely a stunt; it’s very unlikely Senate Republicans would actually do that, given they don’t seem to have the votes and it would further erode the filibuster.)

If anything, Paxton’s position feels like a bluff to try and prevent Trump from endorsing Cornyn. But if Paxton were to actually stay in the race, there’s no absolute guarantee that the president’s endorsement would be dispositive.

Trump’s endorsees almost always win primaries, but there have been exceptions in the past. According to a compilation by Ballotpedia, Trump’s preferred candidates have lost nominations for:

Senator from Utah in 2024

Congressional seats in Colorado and South Carolina in 2024

Five congressional seats in 2022

Three governor’s races in 2022

Even in this week’s elections, Trump-endorsed North Carolina state Senate President Phil Berger is locked in an exceedingly close race.

These are very much the exception rather than the rule. And Trump’s endorsement likely carries even more weight now that he’s an incumbent president. But even the polling suggests it might not necessarily lock up the race for Cornyn.

A University of Houston poll from late January, for instance, showed supporters of Rep. Wesley Hunt, who finished third in the primary, were more inclined toward Paxton (48% of them) than Cornyn (35%).

The same poll also suggested voting for Cornyn could be a hurdle for some primary voters, given his favorable rating among likely voters was a relatively low 61%, with 30% disliking him. While Cornyn’s net favorable rating was plus-31, Paxton’s was plus-50 (72% favorable to 22% unfavorable).

A University of Texas poll last month, meanwhile, showed both men with similar overall approval ratings. But again, Paxton was in slightly better shape among Republicans.

And if voters don’t necessarily share the national GOP’s concerns about Paxton’s electability, who’s to say they won’t just go for the guy they like more? At that point, it would truly just be about obeying Trump’s wishes.

Trump loves the idea of playing kingmaker, and he’s proven quite good at it. But this could be a really big test of it.