Saturday’s matchup between LSU and Texas A&M has all the earmarks of a statement game given the apparently different directions these teams are heading in as college football’s Week 9 action gets underway.
Texas A&M has started 7-0 for the first time since 1994, and its rise into the No. 3 position in the AP rankings is the program’s best start in 30 seasons, crucial momentum heading into one of the nation’s most intense road environments in a rivalry game.
Despite its improved defensive output, LSU’s offense is still lagging, putting up meager scoring averages and some dismal rushing output, badly needing to find a new gear going up against a potent Aggies defense.
What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Aggies and Tigers face off this week?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how LSU and Texas A&M compare in this Week 9 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.
Once again, Brian Kelly’s team is a narrow underdog, and one more time the projection model is siding with the other team in this matchup, even if by a narrow margin.
SP+ predicts that Texas A&M will defeat LSU outright and do so by a projected score of 26 to 25, winning the matchup by an expected margin of just 0.8 points.
The model gives the Aggies a narrow 52 percent chance of outright victory in the game.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 210-201 against the spread with a 51.1 win percentage. Last week, it was 35-24 (59.3%) in its picks against the spread.
For the second-straight week, the betting markets send a message that they’re not confident in Brian Kelly to pull out a needed win in SEC competition.
Texas A&M is a 2.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the matchup.
And it set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -144 and for LSU at +120 to win outright.
Texas A&M’s offense is potent and balanced, even if it faces a stiff test against a better LSU front seven, while the Tigers’ offense is still far too one-dimensional and yet to score more than 24 points in SEC competition, where they’re just 2-2 this season.
LSU’s defense has the bodies and can generate the pressure to keep them in the game, and will have to force some takeaways and limit big gains, given Garrett Nussmeier may not have enough to win outright.
If LSU once again fails to get a consistent ground game going early on and fails to stop the Aggies from getting rhythm on the ground, that could be a potential red flag, a real concern given A&M leads FBS in third down conversion success.
We’ve seen this playbook before. LSU’s lousy rushing production combined with Texas A&M’s field-stretching targets and ability to apply pressure on Nussmeier may prove too much.
But one potentially season-defining factor remains: Texas A&M’s four wins have come against opponents that are a combined 2-12 in conference play, and two of those teams have fired their coach. This is their first game against a ranked SEC opponent.
We’re departing from the SP+ wisdom as to the winner, but making the same prediction.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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