March 12, 2026, 12:53 p.m. ET

The Denver Nuggets (40-26) face the San Antonio Spurs (48-17) Thursday. Tip-off from Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, is set for 9 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Nuggets vs. Spurs odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Spurs lead 1-0

Denver embarassed the Houston Rockets 129-93 Wednesday, while covering as a 7-point home favorite with the Under (232.5) hitting. G Jamal Murray finished with 30 points, leading both teams in scoring as no other player scored over 20 in the contest. The Nuggets held Houston to an abysmal 4-of-33 (12%) shooting from 3-point range.

San Antonio beat the Boston Celtics 125-116 Tuesday, covering as a 3.5-point home favorite as the Over (221.5) hit. C Victor Wembanyama scored 39 points and grabbed 11 rebounds, while G De’Aaron Fox scored 25 in the win.

The Spurs escaped with a 139-136 win over the Nuggets Nov. 28, covering as 7.5-point road underdogs as the Over (238.5) cashed. F Devin Vassell led the way with 35 points to carry the Spurs with Wembanyama out, and F Julian Champagnie had 25 points and 10 boards. On the other side, Murray and F Cameron Johnson combined for 65 points.

Watch the NBA on Fubo!Nuggets at Spurs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:43 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Nuggets +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Spurs -220 (bet $220 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +5.5 (-105) | Spurs -5.5 (-115)Over/Under (O/U): 239.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)Nuggets at Spurs key injuries

Nuggets

(Not yet submitted — below was for Wednesday’s game)

F Cameron Johnson (back) questionableG Jamal Murray (ankle) probableF Peyton Watson (hamstring) out

Spurs

F Harrison Barnes (ankle) questionableC Victor Wembanyama (ankle) questionable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Nuggets at Spurs picks and predictionsPrediction

Spurs 123, Nuggets 120

PASS.

I lean toward the Spurs to win and cover here as -220 favorites, but the line is set a bit to high to risk betting on, especially against a good Nuggets (+180) team that is getting closer and closer to full strength. Pass here and bet on the spread and/or total instead.

LEAN NUGGETS +5.5 (-105).

The Nuggets have covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 games overall and in 2 of their last 3 road games.

Denver has not looked good as of late, and with the regular season winding down, this is the perfect opportunity for the Nuggets to start building up a little confidence. Look for Denver to treat this one like a playoff game and do everything possible to keep this one close.

This is a very slight lean as San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups between these squads.

BET OVER 239.5 (-105).

The Over has hit in 3 straight games for the Spurs and is 4-1 in their last 5 home games. For Denver, the Over is 2-1 in its last 3 overall and is 5-0 in its last 5 road games.

Even with F Aaron Gordon back, the Nuggets still do not project to be a very good team defensively. On the other side, Denver’s offense is good enough to score consistently on anyone, even this Spurs defense, so look for the Over to hit here.

Be aware that the Under is 6-4 in the last 10 matchups between these squads.

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