March 13, 2026, 2:29 p.m. ET

The No. 16 Kansas Jayhawks (23-9) and the No. 5 Houston Cougars (27-5) meet Friday in a Big 12 Tournament semifinal game. Tip-off from T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri, is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA basketball odds around the Kansas vs. Houston odds and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions for the best bets.

Kansas posted a 69-56 as a 2.5-point underdog on Feb. 23 over Houston at Allen Fieldhouse in the only regular-season meeting. Houston G Kingston Flemings went for 16 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists and a steal, while Kansas G Tre White paced the home side with 23 points with 3 3-pointers.

Houston took care of the BYU Cougars in the quarterfinal round Thursday 73-66, although it failed to cover as a 9.5-point favorite as the Under (147.5) cashed. Flemings led the way with 17 points, while F Joseph Tugler was good for 12 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 steals and 2 blocks.

Kansas snuck by the TCU Horned Frogs in the quarters 78-73, barely covering as a 4.5-point favorite as the Over (146.5) cashed. G Darryn Peterson was good for 24 points, 8 rebounds and 3 steals.

The Big 12 Conference announced Thursday that the glass floor with LED lightning at T-Mobile Center will be replaced with a traditional hardwood surface for the remainder of the tournament following complaints with footing and vision.

– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

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Watch NCAA basketball on Fubo!Kansas vs. Houston odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:17 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Kansas +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Houston -250 (bet $250 to win $100)Against the spread: Kansas +5.5 (-105) | Houston -5.5 (-115)Over/Under (O/U): 138.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Kansas vs. Houston picks and predictionsPrediction

Houston 72, Kansas 68

Houston (-250) will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward in a battle between ranked teams. In addition, it is likely to be a pro-Jayhawks crowd given the proximity to Lawrence, and we saw how well that worked for the Cougars last time it played in front of a house full of Jayhawks fans.

PASS.

KANSAS +5.5 (-110) is worth a look as underdogs in Kansas City. Houston lost outright as a favorite in the regular-season meeting in Lawrence, and it should be another pro-KU crowd and hostile environment for the Cougars. However, in the end, I think Houston pulls it out.

The Jayhawks have covered the past 2 games, and it’s the first time they’ve had consecutive covers since a 6-0 ATS run from Jan. 13-Feb. 2, so proceed with caution and don’t get carried away.

OVER 137.5 (-110) is the lean, but roll with a half-unit play at most.

The Over cashed against TCU in the quarters for KU, and the Over has hit in 2 in a row. However, the Under is 5-3 in the past 8 games for Kansas, including the regular-season meeting with UH on Feb. 23.

Houston cashed low in the quarterfinals against BYU, and the Under is 9-3 in the past 12 games. Still, this is a very low number, and it should get Over the finish line in the final minute or two.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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