Top election watcher shifts Rep. Tony Gonzales' district in Democrats' direction after he leaves race

Democratic national operatives are reportedly impressed with the primary performance of Katy Padilla Stout. Credit: Courtesy Photo / Katy Padilla Stout for Congress

In yet another sign that U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales’ political implosion has turned the race for Texas’ 23rd District on its head, respected election watcher the Cook Political Report has shifted its rating on the once bright-red district in the Democrats’ direction.

Cook on Thursday notched the 23rd’s rating from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” based on baggage surrounding the race’s new Republican nominee, Brandon Herrera, a so-called “gunfluencer” whose “long history of incendiary comments that could alienate enough independents and Republicans to put this seat in play.”

Gonzales was set for a runoff with Herrera, a 30-year-old YouTuber and firearms manufacturer, until the three-term congressman ended his reelection campaign over revelations he’d had an affair with a staffer who later died by setting herself on fire.

While the scandal made Gonzales political kryptonite, Herrera comes with problems of his own, according to Cook. He’s used his YouTube platform to make jokes about the Holocaust and veterans’ suicides, and he bragged in one clip about adding Mein Kampf for his book collection. For the record, Herrera told the New York Times owning the book doesn’t mean he shares Hitler’s views.

While Trump carried the 23rd — a massive border district that stretches from San Antonio to El Paso — by 15 points in 2024, Cook points out that trends aren’t working in the GOP’s favor — even with Herrera’s edgelord persona factored out.

First, Dems’ primary turnout doubled from two years ago, rising to 59,000 voters from 28,000. That’s also well above the 48,000 voters who showed up for the Republican runoff. Second, Latinos represent 55% of the district’s citizen, voting-age population, and numerous polls show an anti-Trump backlash boiling over in that demographic.

National Democratic operatives are also impressed by the showing of their party’s candidate, Katy Padilla Stout, a former teacher who now works as an attorney for foster kids, according to Cook’s analysis. She won her primary outright, pulling far ahead of three other contenders.

Still, it remains to be seen how much additional funding Padilla Stout can pull in — and whether that will be enough to build recognition with voters across the sprawling district. As of early February, her war chest stood at less than $50,000, according to Cook.

“The combination of a polarizing Republican nominee and an energized Democratic electorate is enough to shift this district out of the Solid Republican column,” wrote Erin Covey, Cook’s U.S. House editor. “But it’s unclear yet if this will become a truly competitive race. That, in large part, depends on Padilla Stout’s ability to persuade enough Republicans turned off by Herrera’s antics to vote for a Democrat in November.”

Top election watcher shifts Rep. Tony Gonzales’ district in Democrats’ direction after he leaves race

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