Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Texas Longhorns and the NC State Wolfpack.
Texas vs. NC State seems, by name, more like a game that escaped from deeper in the bracket. Two No. 11 seeds, two at-large teams, two brands with actual pressure attached, and a winner that immediately gets BYU in the West. Texas arrives 18-14 after a 9-9 SEC season and a six-Quad 1 résumé that was good enough to get in but not good enough to dodge Dayton. NC State arrives 20-13 after a 10-8 ACC run, safer than the true cut-line panic teams but still soft enough in the committee’s eyes to be parked here. That is the first thing to understand about this matchup: neither team is here because it dominated its way in. They are here because both spent too much of February and early March flirting with the wrong kind of attention. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Texas Longhorns and the NC State Wolfpack.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
The Wolfpack score 83.7 points per game, shoot 38.8% from three, average just 9.2 turnovers, post a 1.69 assist-turnover ratio, and carry a +3.5 turnover margin with 8.1 steals per game. Quadir Copeland is the conductor at 13.9 points and 6.6 assists, Paul McNeil Jr. is the live-wire gunner with 102 made threes and a 42.9% clip from deep, Ven-Allen Lubin is the interior cheat code at 13.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 67.6% shooting, and Darrion Williams gives the whole thing another scoring lane at 13.8 points and 40.1% from three. It is a modern offense in the way that matters in March—not just spacing, but multiple creators, multiple shotmakers, and multiple ways to survive a cold five-minute stretch without the whole operation turning to dust. The recent stuff sharpens their best qualities: NC State beat Pitt 98-88 in the ACC tournament while shooting 60.8% from the field and hitting 13 threes, then stayed alive deep into an 81-74 loss to Virginia behind 26 points from McNeil and a 14-point, 10-rebound line from Lubin. That is not dominant form, but it is at least living form.
Texas, though, has the meaner geometry. The Longhorns score 83.8 points per game, shoot 48.6% from the floor, own a +7.4 rebounding margin, rank fourth nationally in free-throw rate at 46.2, and have built one of the country’s most reliable foul-pressure identities. Dailyn Swain is the clearest reason to trust them in a winner-pick game: 17.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, 108 assists, 55 steals, and 81.6% at the line, with Texas noting that he leads the team in scoring, rebounding, assists, steals, and minutes. Matas Vokietaitis brings 15.5 points and 6.8 rebounds on 63.1% shooting, plus one of the nastiest whistle profiles in the field—Texas’ notes have him averaging 7.8 free-throw attempts per game and ranking among the national leaders in fouls drawn. Jordan Pope is the tournament-chaos button, the guard who can turn a tense game into a heat check in three possessions, and Tramon Mark is the veteran release valve when the offense needs something adult and unspectacular. NC State has the silkier guard ecosystem. Texas has the heavier March body type—glass, paint, contact, stripe. In a game this tight, that could be the fulcrum.
NC State vs. Texas pick, best bet
The Wolfpack are 12-0 when they win the rebounding battle and just 8-13 when they lose it, and they enter this game having been outrebounded in 11 straight. That is a rough habit to bring into a matchup with a Texas team that has outrebounded 26 of 32 opponents and lives off second chances and foul pressure. The Maui meeting is still the cleanest preview of how the thing can tilt. Texas won 102-97 even though NC State won the paint 46-20 and got 28 from Copeland plus 23 from Lubin. That time, Texas drilled 16 threes, won fast-break points 24-7, and made 28 free throws after NC State committed 27 fouls. Nobody should expect another 16-threes night, but that is almost beside the point. Texas already showed it can lose one section of the game and still bend the whole thing back through transition, extra possessions, and the whistle. NC State, by contrast, attempted only 19 threes in that first meeting—a season low at the time—and forced only seven turnovers with just three steals, also a season low. If the Wolfpack do not win the guard-disruption phase clearly, the game starts to look less like a stylistic showcase and more like a chore, and chores tend to favor Texas.
Recent form is the one clean argument against the Longhorns. Texas lost five of its last six, went one-and-done in the SEC tournament with a 76-66 loss to Ole Miss, and trailed 41-30 at halftime in that game. NC State, meanwhile, at least banked a tournament win and looked more coherent this week. The Wolfpack also have a small early-game edge on the season, averaging 38.6 first-half points while allowing 34.6, compared with Texas at 37.7 scored and 35.8 allowed before the break. That is the shape of the danger: Copeland settles the floor, McNeil sees one go in, Williams gets loose on the weak side, and Texas spends the night climbing. But the better moneyline profile still belongs to the Longhorns. Their offense is less dependent on rhythm, their scoring floor is more tied to free throws and rebounds, and their best player is the one most likely to decide the final four minutes with force instead of volatility. The way it dies is NC State turning the game into a backcourt-and-spacing test and finally winning the turnover battle hard enough to keep Texas off its preferred script, but the sturdier side is still Texas ML because rebounds and foul pressure usually travel better than touch.
Best bet: Texas moneyline, playable to -120. Projected score: Texas 81, NC State 78.
Best bet: Texas (-110) vs. NC State
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