Corpus Christi leaders released new water supply models Tuesday to better forecast conditions and plan for potential emergency measures amid historic drought.
CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — During Tuesday’s City Council meeting, Corpus Christi Water officials presented five new water supply models to the public for the first time, aiming to provide a clearer picture of the city’s water future as drought conditions persist.
City leaders said the additional models were developed in response to declining water levels at Lake Texana, historically low inflows into regional reservoirs and ongoing permit considerations. The models are designed to help guide policy decisions and better manage the region’s water supply.
The new projections come after City Manager Peter Zanoni directed staff last month to expand beyond the city’s previous reliance on a single water supply model. Each of the five models evaluates different scenarios, weighing supply against demand.
“We decided to develop five additional models that go from a worst case scenario to this most optimistic case scenario, and there’s a few in between,” Zanoni said.
The models place scenarios on a scale from “A,” representing the worst-case outlook, to “E,” the most optimistic. Each scenario outlines potential timelines for when Corpus Christi could enter a level one water emergency, defined as the point when the city is 180 days from water supply no longer meeting demand.
Zanoni said the updated projections come at a critical time as drought conditions worsen.
“We have missed every rain opportunity. The inflows coming into our western reservoirs and our eastern reservoirs are at all time lows,” Zanoni said.
Corpus Christi’s water supply has remained a major focus at both the local and state levels, with city leaders weighing multiple options to address the ongoing shortage.
Councilman Roland Barrera said that now city leaders are considering every option.
“I’ve been accused of being a fearmonger because I was worried about the worst case scenario and right now we’re not that far off,” Barrera said.
Barrera added that earlier projections may have been overly promising.
“In my opinion, we were way too optimistic before and I think that gave the public probably a sense of security that probably wasn’t there,” Barrera said.
Councilman Mark Scott said the updated models offer improved guidance for decision-making moving forward.
“I’m happy that we’re improving. I would have liked those improvements maybe last fall. But I do think we have a better model today than we had. So you would hope that we make better decisions today,” Scott said.
City leaders have not yet selected a single model to guide future planning but say the additional data will be essential.
“We haven’t selected one yet to guide us forward, through the rest of this drought of record. But it’s good information to have. It’ll help us to make business decisions,” Zanoni said.
The new water supply models are expected to be made available to the public online on Corpus Christi Water’s website following Tuesday’s City Council meeting.