With the 2026 NCAA men’s tournament upon us, here’s everything you need to know about the South region.
[More regional breakdowns: East | West | Midwest]
Who are the favorites?
Florida enters the the NCAA tournament as a No. 1 seed with its frontcourt intact from his 2025 NCAA championship roster. Houston has added one of the nation’s best guards to a tournament-tested roster that lost to Florida in last year’s championship game. Illinois is a young but explosive team that finished in a second-place tie in the loaded Big Ten and can score with any team in the country.
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When will the No. 1 seed go down?
Florida wears the crown and returns as a repeat contender and a No. 1 seed. But repeating is hard to do. UConn did it in 2024 as the first repeat champion since, well, Florida in 2007. Before that, 1992 Duke was the last team to secure a repeat championship.
Back from last season’s title team are Florida’s frontcourt anchors Rueben Chinyelu, Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon, each of whom earned All-SEC honors. Gone to the NBA are guards Walter Clayton Jr. and Will Richard, replaced by standout transfers Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee in the backcourt.
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The result this season was a team that bounced back from a 9-5 start to finish 26-7 and win the SEC. It took a minute for this roster to mesh, but once it did, it became one of the nation’s best teams.
But a repeat won’t be easy. And it will potentially go through a Houston team that pushed it to the brink in last season’s title game and has added significant talent to a strong returning core. Houston-Florida would be for the regional championship this season instead of the national championship and could very well go Houston’s way.
The last time Florida and Houston met was for the 2025 NCAA championship.
(Brett Wilhelm via Getty Images)Who is the Cinderella of the region?
VCU brings a strong profile as a No. 11 seed and faces a No. 6 seed in a North Carolina team that’s vulnerable. The 27-7 Rams enter NCAA play having won 16 out of their last 17 games en route to an Atlantic 10 tournament championship.
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VCU is a balanced unit that ranks 46th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and 60th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Rams feature an all-conference guard in Terrence Hill Jr. who’s capable of lighting it up from 3 (36.1% on 5.9 attempts per game) and facing a UNC team that ranked 242nd in the nation in opponents’ 3-point percentage (34.5%).
But North Carolina’s biggest problem is who won’t be on the court. Gone is team leader and freshman phenom Caleb Wilson, who’s a projected top-five NBA Draft pick. He’s out for the tournament with a broken thumb. With Wilson, North Carolina had Final Four upside. Without him, it’s vulnerable to a first-round upset.
Biggest upset of the region?
See above. While the East makes a strong case as the toughest region, analytics actually point to the South as the tournament’s toughest region at the top. No. 1 seed Florida, No. 2 seed Houston, No. 3 seed Illinois, No. 4 seed Nebraska and No. 5 seed Vanderbilt are all top 14 teams, according to KenPom.
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They also all rank in the top 14 in NET rankings and top 18 in WAB (wins above bubble). It’s difficult to peg any of the top five seeds as vulnerable to upset. UNC, meanwhile, ranks 29th, 24th and 21st in KenPom, NET and WAB, respectively. And those were rankings built largely with Wilson in the lineup. UNC is the most upset-vulnerable team in this region.
Players to watch
Houston G Kingston Flemings
Houston returns starters Emanuel Sharp, Joseph Tugler and Milos Uzan from last season’s national runner-up team. None of them are the best player on Houston’s roster. Flemings is an explosive 6-foot-4 scoring point guard who’s taken the lead role on a veteran roster with Final Four experience.
A projected top-five NBA Draft pick, Flemings leads Houston with 16.4 points, 5.3 assists and 1.6 steals per game. He’s a three-level scorer who attacks the rim with ferocity and shoots 39.2% from 3. He could be the difference from last year’s team that lost in the national championship game and this year’s team in winning one.
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Alongside Flemings, Wagler is another explosive scorer from this season’s phenomenal NCAA freshman class who could hear his named called in the lottery of June’s NBA Draft. A lights-out shooter with a 6-6 frame who can also finish at the basket, Wagler is a first-team All Big Ten selection and the biggest reason Illinois earned a No. 3 seed.
Wagler averaged 17.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.6 assist per game while shooting 40.2% on 5.8 3-point attempts per game. He set Illinois’ freshman scoring record and is capable of taking over any game he plays in. Just ask No. 2 seed Purdue, which was on the wrong end of a 46-point effort from Wagler in which he shot 9 of 11 from 3.
Haugh has evolved from a valuable sixth man from Florida’s championship roster to a first-team All-SEC forward and the Gators’ No. 1 option. Haugh moved into the starting lineup this season as a junior and enters the NCAA tournament averaging a team-high 17.1 points alongside 6.2 rebounds, 2 assists and 1.1 steals per game.
He’s developed into a first-round NBA prospect in the process. If Florida advances to a second consecutive Final Four, Haugh will be a big reason why.
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East region game schedule, tip times
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 South Florida (Thursday, 1:30 p.m. ET, TNT)
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Iowa (Friday, 6:50 p.m. ET, TNT)
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 McNeese (Thursday, 3:15 p.m. ET, TruTV)
No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 13 Troy (Thursday, 12:40 p.m. ET, TruTV)
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 VCU (Thursday, 6:50 p.m. ET, TNT)
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Penn (Friday, 9:25 p.m. ET, TNT)
No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 Texas A&M (Friday, 7:35 p.m. ET, TruTV)
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Idaho (Friday, 10:10 p.m. ET, TruTV)
Who makes it to Indianapolis?
Florida bested Houston last season. But Houston has added a dynamic weapon in Flemings to a roster that returns the core of last year’s Final Four team. And if Florida and Houston do meet in the Elite Eight, Houston will have a significant advantage.
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The South regional will take place in Houston’s Toyota Center. Advantage, Cougars.
Frank Schwab’s South region first-round picks
No. 13 Troy (+13.5) over No. 4 Nebraska
When Nebraska was 20-0, everyone wondered if the Cornhuskers would regress. Then they went 6-6 the rest of the way with one win against a tournament team, and that was at home in overtime against Iowa. You’ll hear a lot this week about how Nebraska has never won a tournament game. While it should beat Troy, the Trojans beat USC and took San Diego State to double overtime, both on the road, earlier this season. They won’t be intimidated by a Nebraska.
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No. 5 Vanderbilt (-11.5) over No. 12 McNeese
McNeese is a familiar upset pick. Last year they were one of the rare underdogs to win straight up, beating Clemson as a No. 12 seed. The big difference this season is Vanderbilt is probably better than the normal No. 5 seed. They were under-seeded by the committee. Also, remember this stat: No team in the tournament scored a higher percentage of its points off turnovers than McNeese, and Vanderbilt has the 11th-best turnover rate in the sport. Vanderbilt won’t give away those points to McNeese.
No. 11 VCU (+2.5) over No. 6 North Carolina
UNC freshman Caleb Wilson was a fantastic story for most of the season, as his NBA Draft stock went through the roof. Then he suffered a season-ending injury. The Tar Heels were 19-5 with Wilson but just 5-3 without him. They got a tough matchup too, against a VCU team that is 16-1 since Jan. 10. VCU is a good 3-point shooting team, which helps their upset bid.
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No. 7 St. Mary’s (-3.5) over No. 10 Texas A&M
Texas A&M was a fun story earlier in the season, when the Aggies were 7-1 in the SEC behind first-year head coach Bucky McMillan and his high-tempo style. But they finished 4-7 as regression hit. St. Mary’s doesn’t play in the SEC so losing seven of 11 is very unlikely, but the Gaels are a rock-solid program that is used to being in the NCAA tournament. They won’t be overwhelmed by SEC talent.
No. 14 Penn (+24.5) over No. 3 Illinois
There has not been a favorite of more than 18 points among No. 3 seeds in the last four NCAA tournaments. Even taking into account how well the top teams have done the last couple tournaments, a spread of -24.5 for a No. 3 seed is a lot. Also, Ivy League teams generally battle in the first round. Ivy teams are 10-4 against the spread in the last 14 tournaments, according to Matt Eisenberg’s tournament guide. Illinois can score enough to cover a big spread, but this spread seems like a little too much.
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No. 2 Houston (-23.5) over No. 15 Idaho
This has been common for the top few seeds in the tournament: Houston opened as a 19.5-point favorite and that has moved four points toward the Cougars. Everyone remembers the favorites dominating the tournament last year. Houston is a tough opponent for anyone with their relentless style. And the Big Sky is routinely overmatched in the tournament going 3-10-1 against the spread since 2010, according to Matt Eisenberg.
No. 9 Iowa (-2.5) over No. 8 Clemson
Iowa really needed to see someone other than a Big Ten opponent. The Hawkeyes were a very disappointing 3-7 down the stretch. But it’s a team that was 31st nationally on offense and 30th defensively at KenPom.com, with a strong point guard with tournament experience in Bennett Stirtz. Clemson was bad down the stretch too, finishing 4-6. That’s what you get with teams this far down in the seeding sometimes. I’ll trust Iowa to hit some shots and get a win.