Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for CFB Week 9’s game between the Arizona State Sun Devils and the Houston Cougars.

Tempe will glow under desert dusk, and the night will buzz like copper wire. The stakes sharpen every breath as the No. 24 Sun Devils welcome a 6-1 Houston team that carries momentum and menace. Mountain America Stadium will flicker under ESPN2’s cameras at 8:00 p.m. ET, and every drive will feel like a verdict. The crowd will lean forward, palms on railings, as two Big 12 contenders trade tempo and torque. Below is my prediction for CFB Week 9’s Saturday football game between the Arizona State Sun Devils and the Houston Cougars.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Arizona State owns a patient heartbeat, but Houston brings a pulse that jumps. The Cougars average 29.4 points, while allowing only 19.0 per game, a sleek scoring margin that travels. Their defense permits 193.6 passing yards and 123.6 rushing yards per game, an efficient spine for road resistance. Their third quarters clamp like a vice, where they rank tied for first by surrendering only 0.9 points. Their offense balances at 211.3 passing yards and 169.6 rushing yards per game, and that symmetry burdens linebackers with indecision.

The Sun Devils counter with method and ballast. They average 26.0 points and 397.6 total yards per game, with 185.9 on the ground. Their defense allows 24.3 points, 216.7 passing yards, and 110.9 rushing yards per game, and they squeeze explosives with a disciplined front. Their offense lives on schedule and sustains. Their third-down conversion rate, though, sits at 34.3%, which ranks 117th. Houston’s defense allows conversions at 35.0%, a tight aperture that warps sequencing and play-calling.

Quarterback Conner Weigman sets Houston’s rhythm with precise edges. He has 1,380 passing yards, an 62% completion rate, and an 11-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has also rushed for 246 yards and six scores, which stresses defensive fits. Running back Dean Connors adds 538 rushing yards at 4.7 per carry, and his tempo knifes through light boxes. When Houston beat Arizona 31-28, the Cougars stamped 232 rushing yards and converted 8-of-14 on third down, then walked it off with a 41-yard field goal. The film shows a line that surged, a quarterback who chose violence on keepers, and a unit that finished drives.

Quarterback Sam Leavitt restored Arizona State’s offense with composure and bite. He carries 1,358 passing yards on 62.3% completions with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. He also adds 284 rushing yards and five rushing scores, which gives the Sun Devils a second phase in the red zone. Running back Raleek Brown has 642 rushing yards at 5.8 per carry, and his jitter through daylight fuels the clock. The Texas Tech win showcased the plan: 37:12 of possession, 83 plays, and a defense that strangled the Red Raiders to 276 total yards.

The injury ledger tilts the chessboard. Wide receiver Jordyn Tyson has 57 receptions for 628 yards and eight touchdowns, and he has recorded at least five catches in fifteen straight games. He is out with a hamstring injury, and that absence reconfigures leverage on every down. Without Tyson, targets compress toward tight end Chamon Metayer, who has 21 catches for 226 yards, and toward Brown in the flats. The vacuum invites tighter windows and more bracketed looks on boundary routes.

Houston attacks those edges with structure. Linebacker Jalen Garner has 33 tackles and two sacks, while Wrook Brown knifes with 4.0 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, and an interception. Their defense has forced eight turnovers and permits only 0.3 points per play by the opponent context provided. Their shell prevents cheap air damage, and their pursuit closes space. That scaffolding pairs well with Arizona State’s current passing shape minus Tyson’s gravity.

Arizona State answers with backfield teeth. Linebacker Keyshaun Elliott has 53 tackles, seven tackles for loss, and four sacks. Jordan Crook brings 47 tackles and backfield pop. The front compresses rushing lanes to 3.6 yards per carry allowed, and that matters against Houston’s 4.1 yards per carry figure. The Sun Devils limit rhythm carries, then unleash a pass rush that heats pockets and tests protections.

Now stack the advanced matchup. Arizona State’s offense averages 0.3 points per play, which collides with Houston’s 0.3 allowed per play. The Sun Devils’ 6.1 yards per pass attempt meets a Cougar defense that yields 6.8 yards per passing play. The margins are narrow, and the angles will decide everything. If Leavitt keeps the chains breathing with keepers and option arc, Arizona State sustains. If Weigman keeps light boxes honest with designed pulls and quick outs, Houston widens the field.

Houston vs. Arizona State pick, best bet

Arizona State has won ten straight at home, and the ball can bounce kindly in Tempe. The Sun Devils can swallow possessions with Brown, a grating front, and field position. The Cougars took a 35-11 thud from Texas Tech, and Arizona State just beat that same team. Those are fine warnings, and they deserve air.

They still fail under the weight of context. Houston’s stumble arrived weeks ago; since then, they scored 39 on Oklahoma State and 31 on Arizona. Weigman’s last two games carried a 120.0+ passer rating streak, which signals efficiency, not volatility. Arizona State’s three Big 12 wins came by a combined ten points, an indicator of razor margins rather than domination. Remove Tyson, and the Sun Devils must engineer explosives with longer throws to Jaren Hamilton or manufactured touches to Brown. Houston’s structure reduces those free yards and drags the game into measured increments.

The number hovers squat at Arizona State -7 with a total near 46.5. Houston owns a 5-2 record against the spread, and their point-profile travels because defense and quarterback mobility survive noise. Arizona State sits 3-3-1 against the spread, and their offense has not cleared the explosive threshold consistently. The matchup geometry favors a one-score verdict, and the hook becomes oxygen.

Give me Houston +7. The Cougars’ defense concedes only 19.0 points per game, and they choke third quarters to 0.9 points. Arizona State’s offense leans on Brown and Leavitt’s legs, but their third-down rate sits at 34.3%. Houston’s 35.0% defensive third-down figure pinches those drive fronts. The spread respects Tempe; the matchup respects Houston’s balance and composure.

Project the drama. Arizona State 24, Houston 20.

Best bet: Houston +7 (-110) at Arizona State

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