Bryan Armetta breaks down three March Madness underdogs he loves ahead of today’s Round of 32 NCAA Tournament games.
One round in the books, and March Madness is already off the rails. High-major teams beware: underdogs aren’t messing around this season. In the Round of 64, High Point took down Wisconsin, while VCU delivered a historic comeback vs. North Carolina. Don’t forget 16-seed Sienna making Duke sweat it out for 40 minutes. Now, just 32 teams remain in the quest for an elusive national championship.
Will the slipper fit for three more Cinderellas on Saturday? Below, I’ll list my three favorite underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook, with a trip to the Sweet 16 hanging in the balance.
Best Round of 32 upset predictions for Saturday 3/21/26
Louisville (+160) over Michigan State
The Cardinals silenced plenty of doubters on Thursday, taking down trendy South Florida, 84-79. Unfortunately, the team is unlikely to have Mikel Brown Jr. active this weekend. That puts plenty of pressure on Ryan Conwell to deliver for his club. Granted, that’s not impossible; the senior is averaging 18.7 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. Against USF, he notched another 18 points.
It’s not as if Conwell will have to do it all by himself. Louisville wields the nation’s 22nd-best adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. Fellow senior Isaac McNeely was on fire vs. the Bulls, draining seven three-pointers en route to 23 points. What makes the Cardinals so scary is their willingness to let it fly from long distance. Pat Kelsey’s crew ranks fourth in the nation with 52.7 three-point attempts per field goals attempted.
If there’s a proven way to take down MSU’s formidable defense, it’s from beyond the arc. The Spartans are 343rd in opponent 3PA/FGA (45.9). That usually doesn’t hurt them, but it still feels like playing with fire. Michigan State is also a slower paced team; catching up from an early deficit could be difficult. After getting up plenty of shots vs. USF, Louisville’s cadre of sharpshooters comes into this one with momentum.
It was your classic 8 vs. 9 affair to open up the 2026 NCAA Tournament. TCU took over early, delivering a 15-point halftime lead. Ohio State clawed its way back, even retaking the lead late. However, it was superior defense and shotmaking that paved the way for the Horned Frogs. The underdogs held the Buckeyes to paltry 29% shooting from three-point range, all while hauling in ten more rebounds.
David Punch and company will face a much stiffer test on Saturday. As previously mentioned, Duke survived a scare against Sienna in the Round of 64. Jon Scheyer’s group should come out far more motivated in this one. Still, it’s difficult to ignore the injuries piling up in Durham. Caleb Foster (foot), one of the team’s best playmakers, is out indefinitely. Rim protector Patrick Ngongba (foot) didn’t suit up against the Saints. His status this afternoon remains uncertain.
TCU’s 22nd-ranked defense on KenPom could wreak havoc on a Duke offense that looks out of sync. The Blue Devils have failed to reach 80 points in four of their last five contests. It’s also worth noting that the Horned Frogs have had success against bigger contenders before. Look no further than wins over Florida and Iowa State earlier this season. If there was ever a time to fade a banged-up Duke, it’s Saturday.
Two straight wins have put the Longhorns within striking distance of a Sweet 16 berth. Uncharacteristically, this squad has been winning games on defense. It’s not easy, but they’ve managed to stifle both BYU and NC State, two quality offenses. That level of effort should give fans and bettors alike reason for optimism this evening. It’s also worth noting that leading scorer Dailyn Swain hasn’t even had a monster game yet. The junior has scored a combined 27 points on 38% shooting in this tournament so far.
Gonzaga is a well-coached, dangerous squad with national title aspirations. There’s one major wrench in those plans: a knee injury has sidelined standout center Braden Huff. 6’9″ Graham Ike maintains a strong presence down low, but there isn’t much else in terms of complimentary scoring. That’s without mentioning a clear size advantage for the Longhorns with Swain and center Matas Vokietaitis.
The Bulldogs are a menace defensively, especially on the perimeter. However, a lack of three-pointers hurts Texas less than most other teams. This group prefers taking it to the rack, feeding its big men in the post. Unsurprisingly, that leads to plenty of fouls. The Longhorns are third in college basketball with 45.7 free throw attempts per field goals attempted. That ability to draw contact could put Ike and this top-heavy Zags roster in foul trouble early.