Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 8’s game between the Denver Broncos and the Dallas Cowboys.
Mile High will vibrate like a struck tuning fork, because this one carries voltage on every snap. Denver enters on a four-game tear and an 8-0 home streak, with a defense that smothers air space and feasts on rhythm. Dallas arrives with a retooled identity under Brian Schottenheimer and Matt Eberflus, brandishing the league’s most voluminous offense by yards per game at 390.6 and a scoreboard that spits 31.7 points per game. The collision reads like playoff weather in October, and the city will feel it in its ribs when the pass rush ignites. Sean Payton’s long-rumored Dallas chapter never opened, so he scripts his statement with the building roaring. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 8’s game between the Denver Broncos and the Dallas Cowboys.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott brings 1,881 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and a 71.4% completion clip, which plants him near the top of every list that matters. The Cowboys rank second in passing at 268.4 yards per game, and they sustain drives with a top-seven third-down rate at 44%. Denver counters with a top-five defense by EPA and an 18.1 points-allowed figure that sits 4th, while the yardage lulls at 273.1 per game, which ranks 3rd. Vance Joseph leans man coverage at a top-five rate and surrenders only a 6.3% explosive-pass rate, which throttles quick strikes. Denver cornerback Pat Surtain II has allowed 16 catches for 166 yards with seven pass breakups, so his leverage alone reroutes game plans.
Denver edge Nik Bonitto has stacked eight sacks, and the front owns 34 sacks, which leads the league. The Broncos also spread that pressure across 12 different sack producers, which keeps heaters fresh and matchups miserable. Dallas has protected well and sits top-five in sacks allowed, yet that comfort meets altitude, cadence stress, and simulated pressure. Jonathon Cooper brings 6 sacks, Alex Singleton has 59 tackles, and the interior squeezes pocket width with a suffocating patience. The noise will rattle into communication, and Denver’s blitz and pressure rates will force at least one drive-killing negative play.
On the other side, Denver quarterback Bo Nix steadies the wheel with 1,556 yards, 11 touchdowns, and a 62.5% completion rate at 6.1 yards per attempt. He adds 172 rushing yards and three scores, which matters when edges overrun and lanes open. Denver’s offense hums at 347.0 yards per game with a 131.9 rush clip, and J.K. Dobbins has churned 523 yards at 5.0 per carry with four touchdowns. Dallas’ defense leaks everywhere, bleeding 401.6 yards per game, 29.4 points per game, 260.3 passing yards per game, and 141.3 rushing yards per game. Opponents complete 68.9% and average 7.7 yards per pass, and Dallas allows third-down conversions at 51.6%, which ranks 32nd.
Courtland Sutton owns 469 yards and 3 touchdowns and thrives on slants and posts that punish single-high. Troy Franklin adds 269 yards and two scores, and Marvin Mims Jr. stretches landmarks with 234 more. Dallas has surrendered the league’s highest open-target rate to receivers at 62.4%, which pairs poorly with Denver’s No. 1 pass-blocking grade on the sheets and Dallas’ average pass-rush grade. Red zone tells the tale, too, because Denver finishes at 68.2% while Dallas allows touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips. That math leans orange when scripts tighten and short fields glow.
Cowboys vs. Broncos pick, best bet
The Cowboys still bring artillery. Dallas wide receiver George Pickens carries 607 yards and 6 touchdowns and aligns outside on 88.3% of snaps, which tees up premium one-on-one chances. Dallas wide receiver CeeDee Lamb crushes man coverage with a 35.6% target rate and 136 yards on 45 man routes, and he has 196 yards on 76 zone routes. Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson has stacked 51 catches and six touchdowns and threatens seams after run fakes. Dallas running back Javonte Williams returns to his old haunt with 592 rushing yards, six scores, and 5.3 per carry, which injects pathos into downhill snaps.
Now the pushback: Dallas’ offense can race the clock, flip hashes, and bury you in layered crossers. The Cowboys sit second in points per play at 0.5, and they hit 27+ in 4 straight games. The altitude and noise do not blunt Prescott’s timing when he operates on schedule. The rebuttal lands with Denver’s coverage and pressure geometry, because a 6.3% explosive-pass allowance and a 179.9 passing-yards-allowed spine jam the vertical teeth. Surtain erases leverage, the rush compresses platforms, and Denver’s nine-sack heater two weeks ago signals a contagious pattern that Payton called “kind of contagious.” Dallas wins with pristine rhythm; Denver specializes in smudging it.
Denver owns 34 sacks and weaponizes crowd noise, while Dallas allows conversions at 51.6% on defense and surrenders 141.3 rush yards per game. Denver’s offense does not need fireworks; it needs chain heft and red-zone clarity at 68.2%. Dallas’ offense will score, yet the defense will hand back short fields and extended scripts. With the book offering Denver -3.5 in spots, the pick gains breathing room without demanding perfection. Lay the number with the group that strangles explosives and cashes red-zone chances.
Final score: Broncos 27, Cowboys 23. The recommendation is Denver -3.5, grounded by Denver’s 18.1 points allowed, 34-sack engine, a 6.3% explosive-pass allowance, and Dallas’ 401.6 yards allowed with a 51.6% third-down bleed.
Best bet: Broncos -3.5 (-105) vs. Cowboys
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For a prop lean, at +130, Denver wide receiver Courtland Sutton anytime touchdown carries real value in this matchup. He has scored in four of his last five home games, which signals sticky red-zone chemistry. Dallas concedes a 62.4% open-target rate to receivers, and its secondary loses Trevon Diggs again. Bo Nix completes 62.5% and Dallas allows 68.9%, so windows should widen at the goal line. Dallas yields touchdowns on 66.7% of red-zone trips, while Denver finishes at 68.2%, which fortifies the script. Sutton already owns 469 yards and 3 scores, and altitude helps contested fades sharpen into six.
Best prop lean: Courtland Sutton to score a touchdown (+130)
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