The tides are slowly shifting in what is sure to be the most consequential sports media story of 2026.
The NFL has officially began an effort to renegotiate its media rights deals several years prior to its contractual opt-out options at the end of the decade. Paramount is first up to bat on account of the change-of-ownership clause triggered by Skydance’s purchase of the company last summer, hence making them the only partner in which the NFL can credibly threaten to pull out prior to its opt-outs in four-to-five years time.
The league’s asking price for Paramount is reportedly about $1 billion more than the company’s current $2.1 billion per year rights fee. In return, the NFL would remove the opt-out clause in the current contract, allowing the deal to reach its official terminus following the 2033 season.
More simply put, for an additional $8 billion over the next eight years, Paramount can guarantee it will remain in the NFL business through 2033. A steep price to pay for a company that just took on nearly $80 billion in debt to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, though a price that might be necessary in order for owner David Ellison to attempt to execute his vision for the combined company.
But for the NFL’s four other broadcast partners, the calculus is much different. For one, Fox, NBC, and Prime Video are all guaranteed NFL rights through at least the 2029 season, with ESPN guaranteed through 2030. A recent report indicated that ESPN could “balk” at a price hike similar to what Paramount seems destined to pay, at least on a percentage basis. Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch said at a recent conference that he believed his company was already paying “market” price for the NFL, a stance that is firmly noncommittal to any fee increases coming down the pike.
And while the NFL, in many ways, is make-or-break for legacy media, perhaps there’s reason to hold out until the NFL’s options hit after the 2029 and 2030 seasons.
Puck sports correspondent John Ourand reports that “network executives have started weighing whether to hold off until the end of the decade rather than reopen deals this summer and extend their runway,” noting, “they’ve only just completed the third year of the 11-year deals, and historically, the largest value comes toward the back end of these agreements. Paying an additional $1 billion annually is simply hard to justify—especially given the broader decline of the television business.”
But beyond avoiding the price hike, the NFL’s partners, particularly the broadcast networks, have reason to believe there will still be a seat at the table for them come 2030.
The federal government has recently taken a keen interest in ensuring sporting events remain widely accessible and affordable for consumers. The FCC recently opened an inquiry into the fragmentation of sports broadcasting. Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), who chairs the Senate’s antitrust committee, sent an open letter to the DOJ and FTC to reexamine the antitrust exemptions granted to professional sports leagues under the Sports Broadcasting Act. FCC chair Brendan Carr then took things a step further earlier this month, suggesting that the Sports Broadcasting Act may only apply to games airing on broadcast networks, not streamers, which would directly threaten any permanent transition away from over-the-air broadcast to streaming.
It’s this undercurrent of political pressure that could embolden networks to stand up to the NFL, or at least demand a less-outrageous price hike.
As Ourand writes, “It’s far too early to suggest that the negotiations have hit a snag.” But it’s becoming increasingly clear that these negotiations are no longer a sure thing. At the least, it’s clear that the NFL might not get quite as big of an increase as it may have originally hoped for.