Eston Parker/ISI Photos
Good news: The Schefflers are having another baby. Even better news? Because of that, the World No. 1 has WD’d as a precautionary measure from the Houston Open. Well, good news for gamblers, we mean.
Now we might actually have a chance to hit another outright, and the Houston Open provides a great opportunity as it favors the bombers of the golf ball. We went hunting on the odds boards for our favorite big hitters and we’ve hopefully found a winner for you.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line.
RELATED: Texas Children’s Houston Open DFS picks: Our favorite ‘buy-low’ play
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2026 Texas Children’s Houston Open:
Read The Line’s Keith Stewart breaks down some early Masters bets below:
Texas Children’s Houston Open picks 2026: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Kurt Kitayama (28-1, Bet365) — Drive it as long as you can with no worry of accuracy and get dialed in with irons, this is the Kurt Kitayama method. Kitayama’s lost strokes on approach just once in the past 12 months, sits 14th of all players in the field in ball speed and 16th in distance. While “average” is probably too generous for his short game, he has gained on the greens in four of five and hasn’t been chipping himself out of tournaments lately.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Nicolai Hojgaard (28-1, BetRivers) — Here we go again. Nicolai Højgaard ranks eighth in approach, 36th around the greens, and 17th with the putter. He has plenty of ball speed and also sits inside the top 18 for par 3 and par 4 scoring among players in Houston. We’re looking for a bomber who can scramble, chip, and putt. Let’s not go beyond one of the Wonder Twins. I’m keeping Nicolai on my card for another week because I believe he can win.
Ryan Noonan, Content Manager 4for4/Betsperts: Adam Scott (40-1, Bet365) — Over the past 100 rounds, Adam Scott‘s average ball speed sits at 180.51. That ranks 23rd in this week’s field, so he’s comfortably above the tour average. In 2026, Scott’s ball speed is up to 184.78 mph, a 4-mph jump that has him a touch above Chris Gotterup, Luke Clanton, Alejandro Tosti, and Wyndham Clark. Scott’s also played his best golf of late on the toughest layouts against strong fields, with his best 2026 finishes coming at Riviera (solo fourth) and Bay Hill (T-11).
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Pierceson Coody (47-1, DraftKings) — I’m buying the Texas native on the precipice of a Masters invite. He’s 51st in the world entering this week, needing to move up just one spot to get an invite. That’s a big deal as the grandson of Masters champion Charles Coody. He’s a great fit for Memorial Park with its lack of penalty off the tee—one of the leaders in off-the-tee in the game and opened the year with five straight top-20 finishes. I’ll bank on him getting back to that and contending in his home state.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Nicolai Hojgaard (28-1, BetRivers) — I was Team Nico for nearly the whole Florida Swing and he consistently let me down. It feels wrong to jump off the rain now, though, as this week is all about ball speed, ball speed, ball speed. Hojgaard ranks fourth on tour in that department and this week he won’t be penalized for any off-line drives, which was the case in Flo-duh.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Ryan Gerard (36-1, DraftKings) — Ryan Gerard has been playing some incredibly consistent golf this season, and he finished ninth at this event last year. Coming off a top-30 finish at the Players Championship where he gained strokes in all four major categories, Gerard is long overdue for his first PGA Tour victory.
Past results: We have our SECOND winner of 2026, with Ryan Noonan hitting his first-ever outright as a member of the panel, correctly predicting Nico Echavarria’s win at the Cognizant Classic at 60-1. That makes two 60-1 hits for our panel this year, with Stephen Hennessey nailing Justin Rose’s Farmers win at 60-1, too.
Texas Children’s Houston Open picks 2026: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Mayo: Wyndham Clark (50-1, BetMGM) — Someone once said, “don’t bet a golfer who is currently yelling at their putter.” If they haven’t, they probably should. Still, I wouldn’t listen. Clark’s ball striking is peaking over the past month, back to the levels of his career best run from two years ago. Problem is, he’s lost almost 18 strokes putting over his past 16 rounds. Fortunately, history suggests Clark is a good putter, so a rebound could come at any time, and he’s gained over two strokes putting each of the past three years at Memorial Park GC.
Stewart: Ryan Fox (67-1, DraftKings) — Ryan Fox is gaining in all aspects of his game over his last six starts. 2026 has been good for the Kiwi, with four top 25s in four PGA Tour starts this season. Fox is primed to close out another tournament when we find the right fit. Memorial Park’s mid-iron requirement, short game successes, and positive putting skill set match Fox’s player CV. Ryan finished T-15 last year in Houston with one bad round. Be sly and grab Foxy further down the odds board.
Noonan: Ryan Fox (67-1, DraftKings) — Ryan Fox is probably the most form-dependent golfer on the PGA Tour. When he’s dialed in, it doesn’t matter the setup. There’s a good chance that he’s going to contend. If he’s riding a bit of a cold streak, it doesn’t matter how perfect the course suits his game; he’ll likely struggle. Now, the challenge here is figuring out when he slips out of form. You can certainly make the case that a surgery to remove kidney stones is the sort of situation that can push one out of form. He gained strokes tee-to-green and ball-striking in his past four starts, with three T-24 finishes and a T-7 at Riviera mixed in. All four starts were strong fields, with three of the four being Signature Events.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Sudarshan Yellamaraju (94-1, DraftKings) — The Canadian KFT grad made a name for himself at The Players with his fabulous Sunday. If he can handle a complete test like TPC Sawgrass, I love his chances at Memorial Park where his elite distance (top 10 in this field) can really help him separate.
Powers, Golf Digest: Rasmus Hojgaard (60-1, BetRivers) — Part of this is because he’s ranked just a head of his twin brother in ball speed on tour, and the other part is I’ll want to crawl in a hole and die if I look at the top of the leader board Sunday, see the last name “Hojgaard,” and find out it’s not the one I bet. So, let’s just bet both, which isn’t such a bad play as they have combined to make 11 of 13 cuts and finish in the top 25 six times this year.
Lack: Sam Stevens (60-1, BetRivers) — I always have interest in Sam Stevens on wide open, driver-heavy golf courses, and his skill set fits Memorial Park to a tee. Stevens’ combination of above average power off the tee, solid middle-to-long iron play, and a well above average short game should put him in a strong position to compete here.
RELATED: Will Chris Gotterup’s run continue?
Texas Children’s Houston Open picks 2026: Players We’re Fading
Mayo: Rickie Fowler (18-1, BetRivers) — I’m rooting for him to make the Masters, but he has a better chance of winning next week than at this bomber’s track.
Stewart: Brooks Koepka (14-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — We are all weighing the putter this week heavily. Since his return to the PGA Tour, that is the one aspect of Brooks Koepka’s game that has consistently not shown up. Koepka basically leads the field in ball-striking, but wait and see what happens when he can convert on these greens. All of that pressure on his full swing will only allow him to borderline contend. Keep him off your outright card; Koepka is a placement bet at best this week.
Noonan: Sam Burns (20-1, BetRivers) — The putter does so much of the heavy lifting with Burns right now. His recent approach form is not good enough to be where he sits on the odds board, and while this is a place that rewards his plus distance and strong Poa trivialis putting splits, I think he demands excellent iron play as well.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Ben Griffin (32-1, DraftKings) — Ben Griffin’s decline this year has been odd. Consider these trends from Ron Klos’ DFS report: The Ryder Cupper has missed three straight cuts and lost strokes on approach over his past five measured events. He’s also averaging under 290 yards off the tee, and given his elite driving gains in 2025, is worth avoiding until further notice.
Powers, Golf Digest: Rickie Fowler (18-1, BetRivers) — Fowler has had a really solid year, but I’m just not sure an event where bombers thrive is the type he’s going to win at. Especially at this price.
Lack: Marco Penge (27-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — I still remain fairly high on Marco Penge long-term given his elite power off the tee, but his number crash this week feels like a massive overreaction. Yes, distance is important at Memorial Park, but it’s far from the only way to find success, and Penge remains an extremely volatile iron player and shaky around the greens.
Texas Children’s Houston picks 2026: Matchups
Mayo: Matti Schmid (+110) over Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Coolbet) — A bomber vs. one of the shortest hitters in the field. At plus-money to boot!
Stewart: Rasmus Hojgaard (-110) over Wyndham Clark (Bet365) — Wyndham Clark is having serious putting issues. Clark is ranked 104th in the field for SG/putting and has lost strokes in four straight starts. Rasmus Højgaard can match Clark’s ball striking ability AND has gained strokes on the field with his flat stick in eight of his last nine measured events. Memorial Park requires rolling the rock, so take Rasmus, and you cash this H2H ticket.
Noonan: Nicolai Hojgaard (-110) over Harry Hall (BetOnline) — Over the past 24 rounds, Nicolai Hojgaard ranks third in this week’s field in SG/total (1.33), gaining across the board. Nicolai finished fifth in my Rabbit Hole model this week, grading out well on long courses with difficult scoring conditions. His distance is an asset this week, as is his putting, which has been a weapon this season. He’s gained an average of 0.51 strokes per round over the past 24 rounds, and he maintains that rate on Poa Trivialis greens.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Marco Penge (-125) over Ben Griffin (BetMGM) — As I mentioned above, Griffin is in an odd funk, missing three cuts in a row and losing a ton of distance. Penge is coming off a top five in Tampa and this is a much-better suited course for him. Seems like a slam dunk.
Powers, Golf Digest: Brooks Koepka (+100) over Rickie Fowler (Bet365) — Koepka is one hot putting week away from finishing inside the top 5. This could very well be that week at Memorial Park, a course he helped Tom Doak redesign in 2019.
Lack: Brooks Koepka (+100) over Marco Penge (Southpoint) — I’m gladly going to roll with Brooks Koepka in this matchup at plus money, as he is coming off three top-20 finishes in a row and remains a far superior approach player to Marco Penge, who is entering the perfect sell high spot.
Matchup Results from the Valspar Championship: Powers: 1 for 1 (Koepka (-120) over Spaun); Lack: 1 for 1 (Fitzpatrick (-150) over Bridgeman); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Koepka (-110) over Griffin); Noonan: 1 for 1 (Hisatsune (-137) over Pendrith); Mayo: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from the 2026 season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Powers: 8-2-0 (up 5.21 units); Lack: 7-2-1 (up 3.76 units); Stewart: 6-2-1 (up 3.26 units); Mayo: 6-4-0 (up 2.31 units); Noonan: 5-4-1 (down 0.04 units); Hennessey: 4-6-0 (down 2.45 units)
Texas Children’s Houston picks 2026: Top 10s
Mayo: Chris Gotterup (+250, FanDuel) — Gotterup sits 11th in the field in ball speed, has crushed long Par 4s all season, and has produced a far more efficient scrambling rate on closely mown surfaces than out of thicker rough. Probably won’t get away with losing strokes putting and winning like he did in Phoenix, but he won’t have to gain as many as most to find himself near the top of the leaderboard.
Stewart: Jake Knapp (+270, DraftKings) — Very few players in this field fit the Memorial Park mold better than Jake Knapp. Forget the missed cut at The Players, Knapp is back and healthy again. Prior to Ponte Vedra, Jake rolled off five straight finishes in the top 11. Farmers through Genesis, Knapp had four straight top 10s. That Farmers comp is a good one, along with Jake’s play at Vidanta Vallarta. Both of those courses feature driving and putting, just like Houston. While most run to Penge and others, Jake will justify the pick and cash, getting the 10 places.
Noonan: Brooks Koepka (+300, FanDuel) — I’ve been in a wait-and-see holding pattern on Brooks, but I’ve seen enough. His ball-striking numbers are outstanding right now, and they’re impossible to ignore. Koepka leads this week’s field in SG/tee-to-green, SG/approach and SG/ball-striking in 2026. The sample is not huge, but it’s not nothing. We know his putter was holding him back earlier this season, but he’s been slightly positive (0.3 strokes per round) over his past 12 rounds, and he’s historically an above-average putter on Poa Trivialis greens. He’s always been one of the longest players on tour, yet his ball speed is up nearly a full 2 mph (182.14) over his 100-round baseline (180.17).
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Aldrich Potgeiter (+1000, FanDuel) — The books aren’t a believer in Potgeiter. I get it—the South African has been super inconsistent. But he’s also capable of spiking—especially when distance is at a premium. And he’s one of the longest hitters on tour. Let’s ride.
Powers, Golf Digest: Max Greyserman (+700, FanDuel) — Greyserman has had a very odd year, often getting off toe very fast starts and then tumbling well out of the top 20 by Sunday due to some big numbers. That could very well be because of his erratic driving. The good news is he can wail away with impunity this week and it shouldn’t lead to the week-ending doubles and triples he’s made far too much this year. Greyserman tied for seventh in his debut here in 2024, too, so he likes the place.
Lack: Mackenzie Hughes (+1000, FanDuel) — Mackenzie Hughes is one of my favorite long shot picks of the week, and his impressive resume at Memorial Park is hard to ignore. The Canadian has finished top-15 in both appearances since the event moved to March and possesses the elite short game and putting combo that will pay dividends on these challenging, Tom Doak green complexes.
Top-10 results from the Valspar Championship: Everybody: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from the 2026 season: Mayo: 4 for 10 (up 12.65 units); Noonan: 3 for 10 (up 4.6 units); Stewart: 2 for 10 (down 1.35 units); Powers: 2 for 10 (down 1.5 units); Lack: 1 for 10 (down 3 units); Hennessey: 0 for 10 (down 10 units)
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest. Stewart is a co-founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour, LPGA and TGL. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter for the industry’s best betting narratives. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.