The Purdue Boilermakers were very impressive in the opening weekend wins against Queens and Miami as they moved to their seventh Sweet Sixteen in the last nine NCAA Tourneys. On the backs of being one of the most experienced teams entering the tourney, Purdue controlled each game and maintained their composure as they shot an ultra-impressive 22 of 38 for 57.9% from behind the arc. That, along with having one of the most well-rounded teams, finds Purdue favored against the 11-seeded Texas Longhorns.
Texas had to play their way into the main field as they narrowly defeated NC State in the First Four 68-66 before back to back upsets against BYU (79-71) and Gonzaga (74-68). That’s a difficult road for any team and for the Longhorns to make the Sweet 16 means they have earned their spot to play the Boilers for a chance at an Elite 8. Texas doesn’t have a very deep team as they mainly play seven players, their top four scorers all average between 17.4 and 13.1 points per game. That makes them a difficult team to defend but any foul trouble could really stunt their ability to score enough to stay within distance of Purdue.
Purdue enters the Sweet 16 as a 6.5-point favorite (as of 3/24/26), largely due to a massive defensive shift that has made the under a trend to watch. Since March 9th, the Boilermakers have frustrated opponents to just 68.2ppg, a significant drop from their season average of 76. That shows an ability to shut down scoring runs which was a glaring weakness for this team most of the season. This defensive evolution is anchored by an apparent renewed focus on a drop coverage and doubling the paint which is designed to neutralize high-volume interior scorers like Texas’s 7-footer Matas Vokietaitis.
The experience gap in this matchup is equally stark, as Purdue’s veteran core of Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Trey Kaufman-Renn boasts a perfect 9-0 record ‘Against the Spread’ (ATS) as tournament favorites since 2024. While Texas had to battle itself out of the First Four and got some experience there, the Boilermakers possess a seemingly “been there, done that” composure while showing a much higher level of focus than what they showed over a large portion of the season. This stability is vital in high-stakes environments, particularly when protecting a lead against a hungry underdog.
The game will feature a strength vs. strength battle between an elite floor general in Braden Smith and a disruptor like Texas’ Dailyn Swain. Smith is averaging 9.1 APG, but he must navigate the constant pressure of Swain’s 1.7 steals per game. If Swain cannot rattle Smith and or if they can’t use length to disrupt Purdue’s offensive rhythm, the Boilermakers’ efficient scoring engine should eventually outpace the Longhorns over 40 minutes.