Orlando Ramirez
The Valero Texas Open, the final appetizer before the main course that is the Masters, is missing some big names this week, the latest being Collin Morikawa, who withdrew on Tuesday. This tournament is as wide open as it could be, as evidenced by each member of our expert panel being on a different golfer in both our main outright section and longshot section.
One of those golfers is a 60-1 shot, the exact odds we’ve had some serious success with in 2026. Can we bag a third 60-1 winner? Stranger things have been done.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line.
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Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2026 Valero Texas Open:
Read The Line’s Keith Stewart breaks down a sneaky betting angle at the 2026 Valero Texas Open:
Valero Texas Open picks 2026: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Sepp Straka (29-1, DraftKings) — Straka’s fifth tee-to-green in this field for the year despite being plagued by chronic Tommy Fleetwood syndrome in 2026—letting one bad round kill his chance to win each week. This cropped up one round in Phoenix, round three at Sawgrass and Sunday at Bay Hill. In spite of this, he’s still finished top 15 in three of four events, all with signature status. Maybe against weaker competition he can keep it together all four rounds, or maybe the one bad round won’t be terrible enough to sink his chances.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Robert MacIntyre (20-1, BetRivers) — Be cautious of Robert MacIntyre. The Texas terrain will allow him to excel around the greens with his Scottish short game. MacIntyre has been outstanding off the tee and on the green this season. His irons need more consistency, and they performed at the Players, where Robert finished fourth. This is a player who will compete strongly as he heads into Augusta National. MacIntyre has one start at TPC San Antonio, where he gained two strokes on the field tee-to-green and another two strokes with his putter. When putting and accuracy are crucial leaderboard qualities, I trust Bobby Mac.
Ryan Noonan, Content Manager 4for4/Betsperts: Russell Henley (17-1, DraftKings) — This is one of those venues that I’m surprised he doesn’t come to annually. Perhaps it’s the spot on the schedule, but Henley’s only been here once (T-4 in 2024) in the past seven years. This course favors accuracy over distance, prioritizes strong iron and wedge play, par-5 scoring, bogey avoidance, and a low-ball flight to navigate the inevitable swirling Texas winds. Over the past 50 rounds, Henley leads the field in distance from the edge of the fairway, a far superior way to measure driving accuracy. In my Rabbit Hole model at Betsperts Golf, he also grades out favorably in approach (eighth over the past 50 rounds), par-5 scoring (14th), bogey avoidance (second), and he’s 13th in SG/windy conditions (17-plus mph gusts) over the past 24 windy rounds.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Jordan Spieth (19-1, DraftKings) — Just cover your eyes and place this bet as you sign up for the roller-coaster Jordan Spieth Experience. Given his course history and how hot his iron play has been, it’s tough to stay away from the Golden Child.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Ryo Hisatsune (40-1, BetMGM) — Can’t find a better value play near the top of the board than this one right here. Ryo has been a top 10 tee-to-green player on tour this year is among the more accurate off the tee as well. He’s also made eight straight cuts, and while he’s cooled off, results wise, after a hot start to 2026, he did just take a much-needed week off and should be coming in refreshed and ready at TPC San Antonio, where he tied for fifth in his second appearance last year.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Maverick McNealy (25-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Maverick McNealy has put together a solid 2026 campaign with four top-25 finishes in seven appearances, and he is coming off a third-place finish at this event last year. McNealy’s combo of above average ball-striking and great around the green play should continue to pay dividends at TPC San Antonio.
Past results: We have our SECOND winner of 2026, with Ryan Noonan hitting his first-ever outright as a member of the panel, correctly predicting Nico Echavarria’s win at the Cognizant Classic at 60-1. That makes two 60-1 hits for our panel this year, with Stephen Hennessey nailing Justin Rose’s Farmers win at 60-1, too.
Valero Texas Open picks 2026: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Mayo: Nick Taylor (60-1, Bet365) — Taylor has a history of winning tournaments without showing any form. That’s good, since he has nothing but middling results this year. He’s played the weekend in seven of eight starts but only has one finish inside the top 25, a T-13 in Hawaii. Recently, though, it’s been a putting problem. That’s masked the fact he’s top 10 in the field in approach and around the green the past two months. Get him in contention and watch him win.
Stewart: Denny McCarthy (48-1, DraftKings) — We all know Denny McCarthy can score from close range. One of the best short game players and putters in the world, we are always looking for ball-striking trends from McCarthy. Denny is gaining +0.75 strokes per round on approach over his last three starts. McCarthy’s iron game is seriously spiking. Denny was the runner-up at TPC San Antonio in 2024 with a back-nine 29 on Sunday. Denny’s finished inside the top 20 three years in a row on the Oaks Course, and never with this strong of an iron game.
Noonan: William Mouw (115-1, DraftKings) — Mouw was a surprise winner last summer in the alt-field ISCO Championship, and he’s built some momentum off that win. He mixed in a few missed cuts since his win, but he played well to end 2025, and he’s currently in the midst of a strong three-tournament stretch. He continues to gain strokes off the tee with distance and accuracy, and over the past 50 rounds, he’s third in par-5 birdie or better rate, trailing only Ludvig Aberg and Robert MacIntyre.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Sudarshan Yellamaraju (68-1, DraftKings) — The Korn Ferry Tour grad is still getting disrespected in the odds, which is an opportunity for us from a betting perspective. He’s fourth in this field over the past 12 rounds in SG/approach, which as Ship It Nation’s Matt Gannon pointed out, you need truly hot approach form entering the week. Sudarshan fits that to a T.
Powers, Golf Digest: Johnny Keefer (59-1, DraftKings) — Fully drinking the Keefer Kool-Aid off of last week’s career-best T-3, and that was before I even found out we had the home-game angle on our side, too. See Ryan Noonan’s matchup breakdown below for more on that.
Lack: Tony Finau (80-1, BetRivers) — Tony Finau is coming off a solid ball-striking performance in Houston where he gained strokes in both ball-striking categories, and he also possesses one of the best short games in the field, a skill heavily correlated with success at TPC San Antonio.
RELATED: Here’s everybody in the field (so far) at Augusta National
Valero Texas Open picks 2026: Players We’re Fading
Mayo: Ludvig Aberg (12-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — The Texas event that gave him the best chance to win happened last week.
Stewart: Jordan Spieth (16-1, Bet365) — Jordan Spieth’s last top-10 finish was at the Memorial last June. Suddenly, the Masters is right around the corner, and Spieth is a favorite? TPC San Antonio requires consistent ball-striking, and Jordan’s driver and irons have been off at different times in 2026. The driver has been great the last few years, and now it has become very inconsistent. Spieth’s inability to contend in any event in almost a year does not attract my attention at the Texas Open.
Noonan: Rickie Fowler (25-1, BetRivers) — The editors are telling me that I can’t just leave Patrick Cantlay here since he’s not in the field. Tough, but fair. Rickie Fowler has played well at times this season, but he has no business being shorter than 30-1 in any field right now.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Hideki Matsuyama (18-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Hideki’s off-the-tee game is 85th-best in this field over the past 36 rounds, per RickRunGood.com, and he’s losing strokes on approach over the past 12 rounds, so it’s tough to make a case for him with his current form and at this number.
Powers, Golf Digest: Si Woo Kim (16-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — As impressive as it is that Si Woo hasn’t missed a cut this year, his last four starts have not been nearly as inspiring as the first four of 2026. If you watched that “Chasing Sunday” mini doc, you might remember his caddie mentioning that they almost never go to the range post-round, and Kim was doing exactly that that week, clearly in search of something as he grinded out a T-50. Perhaps the two weeks off since will do him so good, but hard to trust him at this number right now.
Lack: Rickie Fowler (25-1, BetRivers) — I know that Rickie Fowler needs to win this week to get into the Masters, but I wonder if that is getting baked into his extremely low number. It’s quite surprising to see Fowler under 30-1 here coming off such a poor ball-striking performance in Houston.
Valero Texas Open picks 2026: Matchups
Mayo: Jordan Smith (-105) over Mac Meissner (Coolbet) — Meissner’s been good, not great and can’t putt while Smith has been great, not excellent and can’t putt.
Stewart: Sepp Straka (-112) over Michael Thorbjornsen (FanDuel) — Sepp Straka’s proven ball-striking is a separating skill in San Antonio this week. Fairways and GIRs, much like the past winners, I see Straka in the mix late on Sunday afternoon. Michael Thorbjornsen owns one of the worst scoring averages on Sunday, and where his length was an asset last week, it becomes a big decision-making situation at the Valero. Attacking the Oaks Course with ball speed has not been an efficient pathway to the weekend. Take Sepp’s control over Thor’s speed in this one.
Noonan: Johnny Keefer (-105) over Sudarshan Yellamaraju (BetOnline) — Johnny Keefer calls San Antonio home, and TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course his home track. I love a good “home course” narrative, but I won’t back it blindly unless you go out and lead the field in SG/tee-to-green the week before. The 2025 Korn Ferry Tour’s Player of the Year led the field in that department last week (3.08 strokes per round). I don’t love stepping in front of the Yellamaraju train, but I will this week.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Matt Wallace (-118) over Matt McCarty (DraftKings) — Wallace is playing better golf lately, whereas McCarty is losing tons of strokes in all categories. Wallace has the boost of his course history with that insane ball-striking week he had in losing to Spieth in 2021, so I’ll gladly back the Englishman here.
Powers, Golf Digest: Sudarshan Yellamaraju (-115) over Marco Penge (DraftKings) — One of the hottest golfers on tour right now vs. a guy whose biggest strength is negated at TPC San Antonio. Don’t need to add much else.
Lack: Thorbjorn Olesen (-130) over Marco Penge (Southpoint) — I faded Marco Penge last week, and I’ll go right back to the well on a golf course that is an even less enticing fit for him. Thorbjorn Olesen, on the other hand, possesses excellent course history at TPC San Antonio and is coming off a week in Houston where he gained over five strokes on approach.
Matchup Results from the Texas Children’s Houston Open: Stewart: 1 for 1 (R. Hojgaard (-110) over Clark); Noonan: 1 for 1 (N. Hojgaard (-110) over Hall); Powers: 0 for 1; Lack: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from the 2026 season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Powers: 8-3-0 (up 4.21 units); Stewart: 7-2-1 (up 4.17 units); Lack: 7-3-1 (up 2.76 units); Mayo: 6-5-0 (up 1.31 units); Noonan: 6-4-1 (up 0.87 units); Hennessey: 4-7-0 (down 3.45 units)
Valero Texas Open picks 2026: Top 10s
Mayo: Andrew Novak (+900, FanDuel) — Does one start with good numbers qualify as BACK??? I’m hoping the answer is “yes.” The ball-striking was immaculate at Valspar, finishing fifth in the category despite a T-55 result. That’s what his worst putting performance since 2022 will do to your paycheck. This has been a theme all season, too. Novak has been fantastic or horrendous with his flat stick. He’s gained strokes putting three times in his past seven starts. In each, he’s gained over three strokes on the field. In the four he’s lost, he’s lost an average of four strokes. That mimics his past at TPC San Antonio, too. He’s played it each of the past four years, averaging five strokes gained in the starts he’s gained, and lost 3.5 in the ones he lost. If we can get one of those good weeks, as one of the field’s best wind players, Novak should be good for his third top 10 at Valero in four years.
Stewart: Si Woo Kim (+250, BetRivers) — One of the elite ball strikers on the PGA Tour in 2026, Si Woo Kim is well rested after playing eight events to start the season, including the Players Championship. A solid history in San Antonio, Kim’s left-to-right ball flight off the tee, and stellar short game fit the Oaks Course. I’m taking the 10 places and a winning ticket to the window on Sunday.
Noonan: Sepp Straka (+305, DraftKings) — Straka’s finished T-18 or better in four of his past five starts, and had a real shot to get in the mix late on Sunday at the Players before eventually finishing T-8, one shot better than Henley (T-13). TPC San Antonio is a difficult ball-striking test, and when we look over the past 18 months at who’s been the best at gaining strokes in these conditions, Sepp Straka grades out third in this week’s field behind Henley and Tommy Fleetwood.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Ryo Hisatsune (+470, FanDuel) — CP makes a good case for him as an outright, but I think a top-10 bet is practical. He’s one of the most consistent off-the-tee players in this field and has been striking his irons incredibly well, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to find him near the top of the leader board. I hope he gets the outright win, for his and Larry Shea of Tom and Marty’s sakes.
Powers, Golf Digest: Rickie Fowler (+320, Bet365) — Everybody is fading him this week, and probably for good reason. No, he’s not going to win and get the coveted last-second Masters spot, but I do think we’ll get a spirited effort at the very least. He burned everyone with his first missed cut of 2026 last week, so I expect him to bounce back and return to his solid form, at a course he’s had some success on in the past.
Lack: Alex Noren (+400, DraftKings) — Alex Noren has a 14th and 15th in two appearances at TPC San Antonio, and like Finau and McNealy, he possesses one of the best short games in the field. Noren is also coming off a 32nd-place finish at the Players and previously, had two top-25 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Genesis Invitational.
Top-10 results from the Texas Children’s Houston Open: Stewart: 1 for 1 (Jake Knapp +270); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Chris Gotterup +250); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from the 2026 season: Mayo: 5 for 11 (up 15.15 units); Noonan: 3 for 11 (up 3.6 units); Stewart: 3 for 11 (up 1.35 units); Powers: 2 for 11 (down 2.5 units); Lack: 1 for 11 (down 4 units); Hennessey: 0 for 11 (down 11 units)
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Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest. Stewart is a co-founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour, LPGA and TGL. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter for the industry’s best betting narratives. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.