Meteorologists expect the hail threat to target several counties along the border and in the ranchlands, while potentially “excessive” rainfall is expected across parts of the Rio Grande Valley.
“Isolated severe thunderstorms may affect Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Starr Counties on Saturday due to the approach of a cold front,” the National Weather Service said in an emailed weather advisory on Friday, April 3.
“The main threats will be damaging winds, large hail, locally heavy rainfall, cloud-to-ground lightning, and an isolated tornado,” NWS further said.
Starr and Zapata counties lie along the Rio Grande in between the more populous cities of the Valley and Laredo. Jim Hogg County lies about 60 miles east of Laredo. Forecasters say that hail the size of quarters may occur within the ranchland counties, with isolated severe thunderstorms producing winds as strong as 50 miles per hour.
“Lightning, along with the wind, may cause neighborhood-level to community-level (power) outages,” the NWS said.
In the rest of the Valley, the cold front is expected to push through the more populated regions late Saturday night into Easter Sunday morning.
“There is a medium to high (50-90%) chance of rainfall across much of Deep South Texas this weekend, with the best chances Saturday night through Easter Sunday night,” officials said.
“Some locations could exceed 3 inches of rainfall this weekend,” which could spark pockets of flash flooding.
The National Weather Service predicts that the “most likely” rainfall amounts will vary between 1.5 to 2.5 inches regionally. Additionally, the front will cause temperatures to plummet about 20 degrees — from “above average” low- to mid-90s to a high of 70 degrees on Monday.
The holiday front will be the first measurable amount of rain in months in the Valley. Ahead of the front, the National Weather service said the Valley’s drought had “increased to its worst levels in more than ten years.” But this weekend’s storm comes nearly a year to the day after a devastating storm ravaged the Valley last spring. The March 26-28, 2025 storm produced staggering amounts of rain — as much as 21 inches in spots — that caused weeks-long flooding through parts of Hidalgo and Cameron counties and resulted in the deaths of six people.