April 5, 2026, 1:59 p.m. ET

The Houston Rockets (48-29) pay a visit to the Golden State Warriors (36-41) Sunday. Tip-off from Chase Center in San Francisco, California, is set for 10 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock). Let’s analyze NBA odds around the Rockets vs. Warriors odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

Houston dominated the Utah Jazz 140-106 on Friday while covering as an 18.5-point home favorite as the Over (233.5) hit. F Kevin Durant scored 25 points to lead Houston to the win. The Rockets currently sit at the 5 seed in the Western Conference, a spot they may likely keep as they are 1.5 games behind Denver and 2 games ahead of Minnesota.

Golden State was handed a 118-111 loss by the Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday, covering as a 10-point home underdog while the Over (228.5) hit. G Stephen Curry is returning after being sidelined for 27 games with a knee injury. The Warriors currently sit as the No. 10 seed in the West, a spot they are nearly guaranteed to keep given that they are 3 games behind the LA Clippers and no team behind them can catch them.

The Warriors escaped with a 115-113 overtime win over Houston on March 5 to cover as 9.5-point road underdogs as the Over (214.5) cashed. G Brandin Podziemski and G De’Anthony Melton combined for 49 points to secure the win. G Reed Sheppard led the Rockets with 30 points off the bench.

Watch the NBA on Fubo!Rockets at Warriors odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 1:45 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Rockets -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Warriors +135 (bet $100 to win $135)Against the spread (ATS): Rockets -3.5 (-115) | Warriors +3.5 (-105)Over/Under (O/U): 226.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Rockets at Warriors key injuries

Rockets

C Steven Adams (ankle) outG Fred VanVleet (knee) out

Warriors

F Jimmy Butler III (knee) outG Seth Curry (hip) questionableG Stephen Curry (knee) questionableC Al Horford (calf) outG Moses Moody (knee) outC Quentin Post (foot) outF/C Gui Santos (hip) probable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Rockets at Warriors picks and predictionsPrediction

Rockets 116, Warriors 113

LEAN ROCKETS (-165).

Houston has won 5 straight while the Warriors have dropped 3 straight. The Rockets are also 3-2 in their last 5 overall matchups with the Warriors, also having won back-to-back matchups with the Warriors that took place in San Francisco.

This is a LEAN because Stephen Curry’s return will shoot so much energy into the building and team that it could be a very difficult environment in which for Houston to win.

LEAN WARRIORS +3.5 (-105).

With Stephen Curry being back, this Warriors team will have a shot of energy that it hasn’t had in months. Look for the Warriors to have stretches where they absolutely shut the Rockets down offensively, and look for Curry’s gravity to be in full effect here, even if he isn’t hitting shots.

This is a very slight LEAN, as we have no idea what Curry will look like coming off of this injury.

BET OVER 226.5 (-110).

The Over has hit in 7 of Golden State’s last 10 games, including each of its last 3 home games. The Over is also 46-31 for the Warriors this season. For Houston, the Over is 7-3 in the team’s last 10 games and 4-1 in its last 5. The Over has also hit in 4 of the last 6 matchups between these squads.

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